The upcoming offseason will be one of the most significant in the history of the Washington NFL franchise. It will be the first full offseason for new owner Josh Harris and his partners, and changes will happen.
What kind of changes? Only Harris and his group likely know these answers, but when there is a regime change, front office and coaching changes likely follow. With Harris having assumed control of the Commanders in late July, changes ahead of this season were never feasible.
Ron Rivera and his coaching staff are in their fourth season. Unfortunately for Rivera, the current team looks a lot like the previous three. There are some positives, such as young quarterback Sam Howell. However, the defense, expected to be among the NFL’s best, is statistically among the worst through six weeks.
Each week, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projects the following year’s draft order by simulation the remainder of the current regular season 10,000 times. In the latest model ahead of Week 7, the outlook isn’t too bright for the Commanders.
Per Tankathon, the 3-3 Commanders currently sit at No. 16 in the 2024 NFL draft order. ESPN’s FPI projects Washington to have the No. 7 pick.
Here’s a closer look at the FPI’s odds for the Commanders:
- Average draft position: 10.8
- FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.6%
- FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16.1%
- FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 55%
Far too often under Rivera, the Commanders have picked in the middle of the first round. That’s too low to land an elite player. If Washington were to be on the clock in the top seven, the chances are better it could land an elite player, such as a quarterback or offensive tackle. The top prizes in the 2024 draft look like QBs Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, but there are some high-level offensive line prospects, too.
However, if Howell continues to progress, it’s safe to say offensive tackle would be at the top of the Commanders’ wish list.
