2024 was never going to be a “prove it” season, or so they’re proverbially called, for Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars made Lawrence, their No. 1 overall selection in the 2021 NFL draft, one of the two highest-paid players in football on Thursday night, locking him in on a five-year contract extension worth $275 million.
The term “overpay” was trending on the social media platform X within minutes of the deal being reported, with critics claiming Lawrence had yet to prove such worth as an NFL quarterback.
The Jaguars clearly don’t see it in that light.
Jacksonville is banking on a 28-game stretch of excellence from Lawrence, between Week 1 of the 2022 season and Week 12 of the 2023 campaign, as a sign of what’s to come for the franchise.
Between Doug Pederson’s 2022 hiring as Jacksonville’s head coach and its 12th contest of last season — before the quarterback suffered a game-ending high ankle sprain in Week 13, one of three considerable injuries he dealt with at the end of the year — Lawrence completed 66.6% of his passes for 6,859 yards, 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions with 514 yards and eight scores rushing.
Jacksonville went 17-11 in that span, with Lawrence guiding the club away from four consecutive losing seasons all while eradicating the stench of the short-lived yet disastrous Urban Meyer era of Jaguars football.
The zenith of that period transpired when the Jaguars reached the AFC Divisional round of the 2022-23 playoffs.
They pulled off the third-largest comeback in postseason history the week before, erasing a 27-point home deficit against Los Angeles to beat the Chargers in the Wild Card round, 31-30. Kansas City beat Jacksonville at Arrowhead Stadium in the next round, 27-20.
The Jaguars appeared on track to go on a similar run in 2023, opening the campaign 8-3 before Lawrence suffered his ankle sprain, followed by a concussion in Week 15 and an A/C joint sprain in his throwing shoulder in Week 16.
Lawrence missed only one game but was visibly hampered while playing through his hurts.
Over his injury-plagued final five matchups of the season, including his shortened Week 13 when the Jaguars also lost leading receiver Christian Kirk to a season-ending groin injury, Lawrence produced a 62.4% completion rate and averaged 254 yards, 1.8 touchdowns and 1.4 interceptions per game.
When one breaks down Lawrence’s career, it comes in two parts, a peak and a multi-phased valley. It splits his time in the NFL roughly in half: 28 games of being the No. 1 pick apparent, 22 not so much.
Lawrence led the NFL in total turnovers committed over those three seasons with 60, 39 interceptions and 21 fumbles lost.
But an honest evaluator would likely give Lawrence grace for his rookie year, a 22-turnover debut. Between his first and 17th NFL games in 2021, Lawrence’s head coach abandoned the team after a loss to party with a woman who was not his wife, was accused of physically assaulting one of Lawrence’s teammates, and was fired 14 weeks into his tenure.
The Jaguars cut Lawrence some slack for his final five performances in 2023, too, when he gave the ball away another 10 times.
To them, it was simple: A healthy Lawrence makes Jacksonville a winning football team. The Jaguars believe when Lawrence is at 100%, he’s an elevational talent.
“Our best chance of winning games is keeping Trevor healthy,” Pederson said in March.
Pederson owns a .607 win/loss percentage with a robust Lawrence during his time with the Jaguars. The Super Bowl LII-winning head coach’s career win/loss percentage is .531 over seven seasons in the position, five with Philadelphia and two with Jacksonville.
The Jaguars made some investments in securing Lawrence’s good health this offseason, signing playoff-experienced veteran center Mitch Morse and extending the contract of guard Ezra Cleveland. Jacksonville traded for Cleveland last October but couldn’t fully assess his impact on the offensive line due to the multiple injuries he also endured throughout the year.
Jacksonville revamped Lawrence’s arsenal of passing game weapons, too, acquiring veteran receivers Gabe Davis and Devin Duvernay in free agency and taking pass-catcher Brian Thomas Jr. with the No. 23 overall pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft.
The trio will pair with receiver Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram to offer Lawrence arguably the deepest active receiving corps in Jaguars history, at least in terms of the number of proven contributors, and that goes without accounting for Thomas’ potential.
Kirk, Engram, Davis and Duvernay have combined for 1,083 receptions, 12,982 yards and 84 touchdowns in their NFL careers, all compiled while each player was under 30 years old. Engram will hit that mark in September. Kirk, the next-oldest of the bunch, is 27.
The group has plenty to accomplish to cement itself in Jaguars’ folklore as Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell did over two decades ago, but it’s likely the closest Jacksonville’s receiving corps has come relative to demanding the respect of opposing defenses since that era.
The Jaguars built it to catch up with top offenses around the NFL. They don’t think Lawrence needs help to be successful. They’re catering to their franchise quarterback, doing their part to ensure Lawrence’s success can be consistent.
Because when Lawrence plays his best football, Jacksonville plays its best football. That’s all the Jaguars needed to know before paying him top-dollar.
