Thanks to the NFL schedule makers, it would appear that the likely AFC South winner could be determined in Week 7. It was just three weeks ago that the Indianapolis Colts failed at their comeback attempt and loss 24-17 to the Tennessee Titans.
Indy left that matchup with some serious question marks and people like myself wondering if the people in charge have this franchise in the right direction.
Since then, Frank Reich has righted the ship for now after a win over the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans beat the Washington Commanders the following week and are coming off their bye week so they will be refreshed entering Sunday.
The Colts have a 4-5 record against Tennessee with Reich as the head coach. The more devasting part is that Indianapolis has lost the last four games against their divisional rival. This is a business trip to Nashville for this team. Everyone should understand what is in front of them and where the outcome can steer their season.
Here are five things to keep an eye on when the two franchises clash:
Defending Derrick Henry
This is a staple to watch for whenever the Colts face the Titans because of the impact he has had in the four-game losing streak. In their last matchup, Derrick Henry gashed the defense throughout the first half of the game. Just in the first half, he generated 99 rushing yards and was averaging 7.0 YPC. By the end of the game, he accounted for 60.4% of the production that the Tennessee offense had for the day.
It was a similar case for Gus Bradley’s unit last week. The Jacksonville Jaguars had their way with Indianapolis on the ground. They averaged 7.4 YPC while getting multiple explosive plays throughout the afternoon. The rush defense has been a brighter spot for most of this season but there are times when they get dominated and the tackling isn’t up to par.
That can’t happen in Nashville if the Colts want to have a happy ride back home. They need to defend the run similar to how they did in the second half against Henry the last time. The star back only had 15 rushing yards and that helped the potential comeback that Indy was trying to pull off.
He’s the catalyst to the Titans’ offense so if Gus Bradley can scheme a way to take him away from the start then I like the chances of Indianapolis being able to pull this off.
Getting the ground game going
Frank Reich found something with his passing attack last week and I don’t think he should abandon it at all but at some point, there will be a need to find some semblance of a running game. The thought of Matt Ryan making 50+ passing attempts every game isn’t sustainable in this league. The Colts were thought to have one of the best rushing offenses in the league but they have only gone over 100 rushing yards as a team twice in the first six games.
Indianapolis averages 83.7 rushing YPG, which ranks as the fourth lowest in the NFL. The Titans sold out to stop Jonathan Taylor in the last matchup. The Colts failed to find any room to get things going and averaged 1.7 YPC. It was in that game that Taylor suffered his ankle injury on his last carry which caused him to miss the last two games.
While it does look promising that Taylor and/or Nyheim Hines will make their return on Sunday, it is good to know that Frank Reich can count on Deon Jackson. If the third-string running back gets his number called on again he has shown that he can handle the fill-in duties.
It was a tough day on the ground for the #Colts but they found success at the end of their second touchdown drive. Deon Jackson does a nice job squeezing through the hole and breaking a tackle for the 11-yard gain. Then takes advantage of the massive lane created by Ryan Kelly. pic.twitter.com/xuzQYx2cPq
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 18, 2022
Regardless of who is at running back, the success of the rushing attack is going to come down to the trenches. The offensive line showed major improvements in pass protection last week but now they need to show they can once again affect the game by opening up lanes often for their backs.
Jeffrey Simmons, Denico Autry, and Bud Dupree are a handful for any team to deal with but if the Colts can wear those guys down early then it will help them close out the game in the fourth quarter. This should be another feisty AFC South battle between these teams and the hog mollies up front can help win this for Indianapolis.
Win the turnover battle
Winning the turnover battle is no secret in the NFL and the Colts are very familiar with it this season. It has been a rare thing for them to find themselves on the winning side of this part of the game. They won the battle against the Houston Texans but ended that game in a tie. Technically it was a win for Indianapolis in last week’s victory over the Jaguars but that fumble recovery game was on the final play when the classic keep lateraling the ball until someone can break free was attempted.
So that is only two of the first six games that they won the turnover battle. As far as their other two wins, they actually lost it against the Kansas City Chiefs and tied with the Denver Broncos. But the two takeaways they had came in the fourth quarter which helped them find a way to leave with the victory.
It was an easy day in this situational part of football for the Titans in the last matchup. They easily won that battle 3-0 and all three Colts’ turnovers had an impact on the game. Both of Matt Ryan’s turnovers led to two of Tennessee’s touchdowns. It was capped off on the play that Jonathan Taylor hurt his ankle when he fumbled the ball when Indianapolis looked poised to potentially tie the game in the fourth quarter.
The offense is coming off their cleanest game in this department with zero turnovers so it needs to be a concerted effort to make sure it carries over into Week 7. This is also on the defense. That part of the team has only forced six takeaways this season, which is tied for the fourth-lowest in the NFL.
Tennessee has done a solid job at protecting the ball this season. They have only turned the ball over six times. That is tied for the third-lowest mark across the league. As much as Gus Bradley’s unit needs to take away Derrick Henry, they also have just as much importance to getting the ball back for the offense and setting them up in favorable situations.
Matt Ryan and the passing attack
The Colts are coming off their best game as a passing offense during the Matt Ryan era. Not only it was a 389-yard and three-touchdown performance, but the offensive line also gave up zero sacks, and there were no turnovers by the quarterback. Frank Reich turned to an up-tempo offense that helped get the ball out of his quarterback’s hands at a quicker rate.
The sudden change by the offense gave fit to the Jaguars’ defense. It opened up a lot of eyes that all of a sudden that Indianapolis might have some young playmakers outside of Michael Pittman Jr. in this passing attack. An unsung hero of the offense last week was Kylen Granson.
The second-year tight end was vital in the offense getting points before halftime.
Kylen Granson with a couple catches to help set up the #Colts field goal before halftime. 12-yards then a crucial 15-yard reception on a 3rd-and-10 to put the offense at the JAX 29-yard line. pic.twitter.com/9BtxGgkDkA
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 17, 2022
Granson had four receptions for 62 yards the last time he faced Tennessee. But he’s not the only young tight end that is emerging for the Indianapolis offense. Jelani Woods continues to be a redzone threat for Matt Ryan and he is coming off catching his third touchdown of the season.
When in doubt, throw it up to Jelani Woods pic.twitter.com/iBj9vrrCgp
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 18, 2022
Is Parris Campbell ready to takeoff for the Colts? The veteran of the receiving group has been playing most of the snaps on offense but hasn’t got much production until last week. Against the Jags, he caught seven balls for 57 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. His effort to get his first score of the season was impressive.
3rd-and-goal at the 4-yard line. The #Colts offensive line does a great job picking up the 6-man rush, Matt Ryan with the quick read, and amazing effort by Parris Campbell to get the first touchdown. pic.twitter.com/ACetwHmJ3l
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 17, 2022
But it is the emergence of the rookie that has given some confidence in Matt Ryan and this passing attack. Over the last four games, Alec Pierce has averaged 15.1 YPR which has helped move the chains for the offense. His contested catch ability has been outstanding and it has been that part of his game that helped win the last two games.
The most telling thing about Ryan’s confidence in Pierce came on the game-winning play. In a third-and-13, the quarterback took a chance on the first-year player winning his one-on-one matchup and he delivered on it.
Alec Pierce's game-winning touchdown #ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/jLQT2ezWjF
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 18, 2022
Pierce did finish with four receptions for 80 yards in his first game contest against Tennessee. It is only one game, but all of a sudden, Frank Reich appears to have some weapons that he can look to exploit defenses with. The offense just needs to build upon this success and it should only get better when Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines return to the lineup.
Will there be any lineup changes?
There has been a shuffle across the roster over the last few weeks as Frank Reich has tried to figure out the right combination on the offensive line and the team has dealt with injuries. Based on the unofficial depth chart, it does appear that the Colts will be sticking with Dennis Kelly at left tackle and Matt Pryor at right guard.
Kelly does look like a short-term answer at left tackle but my question is at right guard? Matt Pryor didn’t exactly put on a great showing last week but the offensive line didn’t give up a sack so I expect he will at least start this week. His play will be something to monitor with Indianapolis having to deal with Jeffrey Simmons. He was a game-wrecker in the previous matchup.
The following lineup changes are more on the injury side with players playing that have filled in playing well. Julian Blackmon was active last week but Reich did confirm that it was on an emergency basis. Rodney Thomas II has been very solid filling in free safety and he has shown he is worthy of getting snaps even when Blackmon is ready to take the field.
Then there is the potential of a second return for Shaquille Leonard. He has been practicing this week and if he clears concussion protocol, could we see the leader of the defense back? Zaire Franklin has been great during his spot duties and E.J. Speed has shown some good things in run support. Then, of course, there is Bobby Okereke.
Leonard’s starting spot is not in doubt but Gus Bradley has a good problem on his hands with his four linebackers. The lineup changes are more on the offensive line to keep an eye on but if Blackmon and Leonard do make their returns then it should be monitored how their backups are used throughout the afternoon.
