The Indianapolis Colts (9-7) will be playing for the life of their season when they host the Houston Texans (9-7) at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night.
After Indy bounced back in a Week 17 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, they are locked into a win-or-go-home game against the Texans. The winner of this game will be guaranteed at least a wild-card spot with the chance to win the division if the Tennessee Titans pull off the upset over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Vegas has the Colts sitting as 1-point home underdogs in this matchup, according to BetMGM.
Here’s how the experts around the league see this matchup shaking out:
| Expert | Pick | Score (if applicable) | |
| Nate Davis (USA TODAY) | Texans | 30-27 | Link |
| Jarrett Bell (USA TODAY) | Texans | 27-24 | Link |
| Lorenzo Reyes (USA TODAY) | Texans | 24-20 | Link |
| Mike Clay (ESPN) | — | — | Link |
| Dan Graziano (ESPN) | Texans | — | Link |
| NFL Network | Texans | 27-24 | Link |
| Bill Bender (Sporting News) | Texans | 28-20 | Link |
| Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News) | Texans | 23-20 | Link |
| Pete Prisco (CBS Sports) | Texans | 31-26 | Link |
| Cam DaSilva (Sportsbook Wire) | Texans | — | Link |
| Josh Kendall (The Athletic) | Texans | — | Link |
Over at Tallysight, 71% of the analysts have the Texans coming away with a road win. In terms of the 1-point spread, 24% of analysts believe the Colts will cover.
According to BetMGM, the numbers also favor the Texans. As of this writing, 72% of the bettors are taking the Texans (-120) moneyline while 42% have the Colts covering a 1-point spread (-110). Meanwhile, 52% believe the game will hit the under on a 47.5-point total (-110).
This game is for all the marbles. The winner gets into the playoffs while the loser goes home and prepares early for the offseason. The fact that both of these teams are in this situation is a testament to the new coaching staffs. At this point last season, the conversation between these two teams was about draft capital.
The Texans certainly have improved on both sides of the ball. The emergence of C.J. Stroud as one of the game’s most efficient passers has given life to the Texans offense while DeMeco Ryans’ impact on Houston’s defense should not be overlooked.
Anything can happen in this type of high-pressure game, especially between two division-mates. It should make for a fun Saturday night.
