Can the Indianapolis Colts finally end a losing streak this season? They failed to get a win on opening day, a victory in Jacksonville, and couldn’t find a way to come on top over the Tennessee Titans again this season.
On Monday night they will get an opportunity to end their losing streak to the Pittsburgh Steelers. A team they haven’t beaten since 2008, which was a team that featured interim head coach Jeff Saturday as the starting center.
For the first time in this losing streak they won’t have to face Ben Roethlisberger since he retired this past offseason and now will get to face their rookie quarterback, Kenny Pickett.
This also isn’t the old vaunted Pittsburgh defense. They still have great players up front but teams have found success moving the ball through the air against them.
The last time the Colts were on prime time was the 12-9 win over the Denver Broncos so let’s see if the offense can actually provide some fireworks for the national audience.
Here are five things to watch for on Monday night:
Can Michael Pittman Jr., Parris Campbell, and Alec Pierce take over?
The Colts’ passing attack hasn’t been any close to consistent this season but it has been promising to see some of the performances out of the trio of their receivers. But, one thing that we haven’t seen this season is them taking over a matchup. They’ve done a solid job at just doing what they are supposed to do but they don’t put fear into the defense. While that could be on the offensive line and the quarterback, they have their times where they aren’t working their way open.
This should be a game that Matt Ryan and his receivers can make an impact on the outcome. The Steelers are giving up 272.1 passing YPG, which is the most allowed in the NFL. It feels like Michael Pittman Jr. is set to have a big performance on Monday night.
The leading receiver hasn’t gone over 100 receiving yards since the win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and his only touchdown of the season came in the opening-day tie to the Houston Texans. Parris Campbell has really emerged over the past couple of months. He hasn’t gone over 100 receiving yards in his career, could he get his first 100-yard career game in front of a national audience?
Alec Pierce has been relatively quiet over the past few games for Indianapolis. He hasn’t had over three receptions since the win over the Broncos but he did get eight targets in last week’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. We’ve seen these receivers show they can flip field position when given the opportunity.
Last week, Pierce and Campbell made plays on third downs to keep the chains moving and put the offense at the 5-yard line. The Colts just didn’t capitalize on it, which cost them in the end.
Matt Ryan made a couple of crucial throws to keep the chains moving on 3rd downs.
– 17 yards to Alec Pierce on a 3rd-and-11
– 31 yards to Parris Campbell on a 3rd-and-3
Got the #Colts to the 5-yard line but failed to get the touchdown. Indianapolis wins if they punch it in. pic.twitter.com/VoLatpvhFK
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 22, 2022
The flashes are there but if they can be a consistent threat 10+ yards down the field then that will make defenses respect them and it can help open up things for Jonathan Taylor. They got a chance to put some things together against the Steelers.
Bottling up Najee Harris
It was a rocky start to the season for Najee Harris and the Pittsburgh rushing attack but they’ve seemed to find a groove over their last two games. He’s gone over 90 rushing yards in those matchups and has averaged 4.725 YPC over the last two weeks. Harris has only three rushing touchdowns this season but he scored two of those in their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week.
Harris hasn’t impacted the passing attack as much as he did in his rookie season but he’s gotten at least four receptions in two of their last three games. This does follow when it looked like Jaylen Warren was going to cut into his snaps but Harris has responded and looks more in command of the backfield.
Warren’s availability is up in the air for Monday night so if he does miss the game then the Colts’ defense will be looking to shut down Harris and take him out of the game as early as they can. If Gus Bradley can get his defense to make the Steelers’ offense one-dimensional and force Kenny Pickett to beat them then I like the chances of his unit having a successful performance.
Protecting Matt Ryan
Death, taxes, and the constant talk about how underwhelming the Colts offensive line has been this season. Last week was an epitome of how the year has gone this year for the unit. In the first half, they only gave up one QB hit and zero sacks while Indianapolis looked like they were in control of the game.
Then the Eagles defensive front took over in the second half and got after Matt Ryan.
The #Colts entered halftime only giving up 1 QB hit & 0 sacks. Different story in the 2nd half. Philadelphia ended the game with 4 sacks & 8 QB hits.
Here are the four times the #Eagles got Matt Ryan to the ground. pic.twitter.com/7LFM93YeEr
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 22, 2022
That has been the case for the Colts this season. When the offensive line protects the quarterback, they win those games but when they flounder like they have for most of the season is why they have loss six games. It won’t be an easier this week against a front that features T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward.
As well as Alex Highsmith. The third year edge rusher has emerged this season and delivered when Watt was out with his injury. He leads the team with nine sacks. Highsmith has two and a half sacks and four QB hits in their last two games.
The Steelers have 19 sacks this season, which is the fifth lowest amount in the league. But to be fair, it doesn’t help that Watt missed seven of their 10 games. The matchup to watch will be Watt against Braden Smith. He typically lines up on that side of the ball.
Watt has three and a half sacks in the last two games that he has played the Colts. Smith won’t win all his reps but if he can limit Watt’s impact on the game then it will help the passing attack. Just like it has been this season, the winner of this game likely comes down to the pass protection from the Indianapolis offensive line.
Defending Kenny Pickett
If the Colts can take away Najee Harris and the rushing attack plus get after Kenny Pickett throughout the night then I like the chances of them finding a way to a win. It hasn’t been a rainbows and butterflies season for the rookie quarterback but he has played better after the Steelers’ bye week.
He wasn’t lighting it up, averaged 232 passing YPG, and has one passing touchdown in those two matchups. But most importantly, he hasn’t turned the ball over since the bye week. Pickett has thrown eight interceptions and has lost a fumble in his seven games. He has two games with three interceptions.
He’ll make rookie mistakes so Gus Bradley has to get his defense ready to jump on any opportunities that they can get their hands on the ball. While he’s not a threat on the ground like Jalen Hurts, Pickett does have the mobility to move the sticks with his legs.
He’s averaging 23.3 rushing YPG and in their win over the New Orleans Saints, Pickett ran the ball eight times for 51 yards and a touchdown. One way that can quickly frustrate a rookie quarterback is if he is under constant duress. If the Indianapolis defense can get after him then that can help lead to those potential turnovers.
Pittsburgh has given up 29 sacks this season, which is the seventh most in the NFL. Pickett has been sacked 20 times. 14 of those sacks have come in the last three games. The Steelers also gave up 25 QB hits in those matchups. The proof is in the pudding that defenses can get after Pickett.
With Kwity Paye’s availability in question, the defensive front will need Yannick Ngakoue to put together another great performance on Monday night. He’s coming off his best game as a Colt and forced his first turnover this season.
Philadelphia dials up a shot play to open the third quarter, but Yannick Ngakoue gets around Miles Sanders block just in time to get the strip-sack fumble for the #Colts defense. pic.twitter.com/krsAHbKiHm
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 22, 2022
He’ll be lined up against Dan Moore Jr., who has given up five sacks this season. Ngakoue can’t just do it on his own. DeForest Buckner will get his job done but they’ll need someone else to step up and make an impact on this game. Dayo Odeyingbo has steadily played better over the recent weeks and is just on the edge of getting multiple sacks in a game.
The Colts’ defense will need to put pressure on Pickett early and not let him get settled into the game. If they can bait him into mistakes then they can set their offense up for a successful night.
Finishing drives with touchdowns
When the Colts’ offense crosses midfield, fans start to get nervous because it doesn’t always end well for them. They either find a way to turn the ball over, don’t convert on fourth and shorts, or settle for a field goal, which isn’t always a lock that it will go through the uprights.
The failure of finishing drives with touchdowns is a major reason why they couldn’t put away the Eagles last week. Even when the defense gave them great field position throughout the game. Indianapolis has scored a touchdown on 43.33% of their red zone attempts. That is the third lowest in the NFL.
This is a major dropoff from the 2021 season, they scored a touchdown on 56.25% of their appearances in the red zone. It’s been terrible in their last three games. Only scoring a touchdown in 28.57% of their red zone attempts.
The Steelers defense has only allowed a touchdown 54.84% of the time when the opposing team is in the red zone. Players understand that they have to start finding their way to the endzone and help out their defense. “What did we end up with, 16 points?” receiver Alec Pierce said. “That’s asking too much of the defense. We gotta score more points.”
Indianapolis has only scored over 20 points twice this season. Pittsburgh is allowing 24.3 PPG, which is the fifth most allowed in the league. The defense can only bail out the offense so much, it’s time for the offense to start finding more success in the red zone. That’s how they win on Monday night.
