Coming off a win last Sunday against the Chicago Bears, can the Indianapolis Colts keep that momentum going against the 3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers?
The Steelers’ defense is allowing the fewest points per game, while their run-heavy approach on offense will provide a big test for the Colts’ run defense.
In a nuanced game like football, there is always a lot to keep our eyes on each week. However, when it comes to the Colts versus Steelers, below are what I believe to be the big ticket items that will carry a lot of weight in determining the winner of this matchup.
The Colts injury report
The Indianapolis Colts are already going to be without Kenny Moore and Kwity Paye in this game. Also on Friday’s injury report were Braden Smith, Ryan Kelly, and Tyquan Lewis, neither of whom practiced that final day and all are listed as questionable.
Already without Paye, the Colts defensive end depth would really be tested if Lewis can’t go as the defense faces a very run-heavy Steelers offense. The Colts offensive line, meanwhile, has been a consistent bright spot for the offense this season, but faces a difficult test this week against a Steelers front that is allowing the second-fewest yards per rush.
Inactives will be announced 90 minutes prior to kickoff, at which point we will find out who is playing–or perhaps not playing.
Can Colts force Justin Fields to make mistakes?
Winning the turnover battle last week was a crucial part of the Colts’ ability to beat the Bears. Fields, however, has done an excellent job at protecting the football, throwing just one interception over three games. He also has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate among eligible quarterbacks.
The ball is life in the NFL. Forcing takeaways will provide the Colts offense with additional possessions and oftentimes some good field position. Last week, Indianapolis scored 14 points off the three takeaways created. Forcing Fields to make mistakes begins with the pass rush getting home to disrupt the timing and rhythm of the play.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers defense has been one of the best at forcing takeaways early in the season.
Can Colts stay committed to the run?
There are likely going to be times where running the ball in this game doesn’t come easy. In the middle of the Steelers front is Cameron Heyward, one of the best run defenders this season, and overall, the Steelers are allowing only 3.6 yards per carry.
However, even if it’s tough sledding, the Colts have to remain committed to getting Jonathan Taylor his touches, while incorporating Anthony Richardson into the run game as well. This was the blueprint for success last week, with the duo carrying the ball 28 times–excluding kneel-downs.
Becoming one-dimensional, predictable, and pass-heavy against a pass rush that features TJ Watt probably isn’t a recipe for success.
The time of possession battle
Through three games, the Colts have held the ball on offense the least of any team, while the Steelers rank second in this category. Losing the time of possession battle as badly as the Colts have leads to a huge discrepancy in plays ran by each offense.
This then wears down the Indianapolis defense and forces the offense to be extremely efficient with their opportunities, which realistically, isn’t sustainable–especially as that side of the ball still navigates ups and downs.
The culprit behind this issue for the Colts is twofold, it’s in part because of the defense struggling to stop the run and also due to the offense’s inability to pick up first downs consistently–specifically via the short to intermediate passing games–which leads to short drives.
If this game plays out the same way the season averages have for both teams in this regard, I’m going to guess it doesn’t end well for the Colts.
Stopping the run
Credit to the Colts for their play against the Bears rushing offense last week, limiting Chicago to just 63 yards on 28 carries. This week, however, the Colts will be facing a very run-heavy offense.
The Steelers haven’t been overly efficient in the run game, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. But what they are is committed, ranking second in rush attempts per game, which has then allowed them to total the 12th most rushing yards per contest.
I mentioned earlier the need for the pass rush to get after Fields in an effort to generate potential takeaways, along with the need to keep the time of possession battle close. Those things don’t happen without a good showing from the run defense.
