The Indianapolis Colts are back home in Week 12 to take on the 9-1 Detroit Lions.
Following a win last Sunday over the Jets, the Colts improved to 5-6 on the season, and have a lot on the line this week with their playoff hopes still hanging on.
However, maintaining and building upon that momentum won’t come easy against what has been a complete Lions’ team.
As Sunday’s Week 12 matchup unfolds between these two teams, here are five things to keep your eyes on.
Colts’ defensive front has to pressure Jared Goff
Pressuring Jared Goff will be a must for the Colts. From a clean pocket this season, Goff is completing nearly 80 percent of his throws while averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt–another impressive figure–with 17 touchdowns to six interceptions.
Under pressure, his completion rate drops to 61 percent–obviously, still quite good–and his yards per attempt sits at a still efficient 8.6. And generating this pressure won’t come easy against one of the best offensive line units in football.
As the numbers illustrate, pressuring Jared Goff certainly won’t guarantee success for the Colts’ defense, but it’s a lot better than the alternative. With time in the pocket, Goff can pick this defense apart.
Can the Colts contain the Lions’ running game?
In order to have the opportunity to rush the passer and get after Goff, the Colts’ defense has to eat its vegetables on early downs–meaning they have to slow the Detroit run game. Another extremely difficult task.
Led by the dynamic duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, the Lions’ offense is averaging 5.0 yards per rush this season. Success on the ground keeps the offense ahead of the sticks, sets up play-action opportunities–which the Lions run more than any other team–and puts the burden on the defense, who is playing from a disadvantageous spot with the entire playbook open to the Detroit offense in these short down-and-distance situations.
If the Colts can’t find a way to contain Montgomery and Gibbs, chances are it will be a long day for the defense.
The Colts run game has to get going
On the flip side, the Colts’ ability to run the ball on offense will be a must for them. Similarly to the reasons just mentioned, struggles on the ground puts the offense in get back on track situations, where they can become predictable and pass-heavy.
With the defense not necessarily worried about the run game in second and third-and-long scenarios, the pass rush can pin its ears back and a Lions’ secondary, that has been very good at generating takeaways, will have the advantage from a coverage standpoint.
If we look back at last week’s game against the Jets, when the offense ran into a lull in the third quarter, a lot of those issues started with the run game not picking up consistent yards, which put the offense in those dreaded long down-and-distances.
Time of possession battle
This is one of those stats that is on the periphery but often carries a lot of weight in games. The Colts have been one of the worst in this category this season, holding the ball on offense for just 44 percent of the game–the second-lowest mark in the NFL.
A direct contributor to this metric has been the offense’s inability to sustain drives, leading to short possessions. The trickle-down effect of this is that the defense is forced to be on the field for much longer and it gives the opponent additional possessions.
Against the highest-scoring offense in football, if the Colts’ offense can’t sustain drives and keep this time of possession battle close, that is not anywhere near a recipe for success versus Detroit.
Mistake free football
This goes without saying and is important every week. However, against the red-hot 9-1 Lions who have been dominant this season, it’s a must if the Colts are going to win. That means keeping the time of possession battle close, no turnovers–or ideally winning that battle–limiting penalties, along with third down and red zone success on both sides of the ball.
I know that’s basically asking for a near-perfect game, but something of that ilk may be what’s required against the Lions.
