It was just a few weeks ago when the world was on fire after the Indianapolis Colts were coming off the 24-0 shutout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Indy would go on to upset the Kansas City Chiefs the following week and now are sitting at a .500 record after last week’s win over the Denver Broncos.
The Jags looked like they might have turned the corner after they followed up their win with another over the Los Angeles Chargers. But, things have come back down to earth for them after losing to the Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans in back-to-back weeks.
Even though we aren’t more than halfway through the season, this is a crucial matchup for both teams to keep their playoff chances from fading away this early. While the Colts have their problems winning in Duval County, it is different when Jacksonville visits Lucas Oil Stadium during the Frank Reich era.
Indianapolis hasn’t lost at home under Reich to the Jaguars. Indy has outscored the Jags 113-70 in those four matchups.
There are still a lot of questions surrounding this Colts team so we will see if they answer any of them on Sunday. Here are five things to keep an eye on:
1
To no surprise, its the offensive line
Unfortunately for the Colts, the offensive line has been a reoccurring thing to watch for since Week 1. That unit has been a weekly topic because of their inability to give Matt Ryan consistent protection throughout games. That was on display when these two teams faced back in Week 2. The Jaguars’ defense logged five sacks and 11 QB hits. Which doesn’t even factor in how often Ryan was under duress on that Sunday afternoon.
All 5 sacks given up by the #Colts.
– Failed to pick up 2 different stunts
– Matt Pryor beat on at least 2 of the sacks, not fully going to blame him on the 3rd one but he had a rough day.
Pass protection HAS to improve for Indianapolis. pic.twitter.com/U1Zly7Rhkn
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) September 19, 2022
Nothing has gotten better since then for Indianapolis. Including the loss to Jacksonville, they have given up at least five sacks in their last four games. The coaching staff decided to shuffle the deck on the offensive line and that provided no benefit in their win over the Broncos.
All 6 sacks by the #Broncos defense. The #Colts had no answer for Bradley Chubb and Baron Browning. Another game that stunts and the play by the tackles continue to haunt the offensive line. pic.twitter.com/ukMM8G4cJa
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 8, 2022
So the remaining question is where do they go from here? You’d like to think it can’t be any worse than what it has been, which is Frank Reich’s hope. One thing that has been confirmed is that rookie, Bernhard Raimann will remain as the starting left tackle. His first start wasn’t the best but his head coach remains confident that he will figure it out.
“Yeah, I mean I think that is going to be our plan with (Bernhard) Raimann. He did some good things. I know there were some calls and some stuff, but that’s just going to be part of the process,” Reich said Wednesday. “We feel like that was a good pick. We feel like he’s got a lot of upside. Right now, I’d be willing to tell you we think that’s going to be our left tackle.”
But, what will they do with the right side of the line? The combination of Braden Smith at right guard and Matt Pryor at right tackle didn’t work at all. Will they try it again? Do they kick Smith back out to tackle and slide either Will Fries or Pryor to right guard? Does Smith stay inside and will Dennis Kelly get an opportunity to play the right tackle spot?
The Colts are keeping their cards close to their chest ahead of their matchup with a divisional rival so we likely won’t get an answer on that until the game kicks off. Whatever the combination is, they need that unit to gel right now, not later.
2
Getting Trevor Lawrence uncomfortable
During the last two games that these two teams faced each other, Trevor Lawrence has picked the Colts apart because he had so much time to sit in the pocket and make his reads. In the two matchups, Lawrence has gone 48/62 for 458 yards and four touchdowns. The more notable part is that he has zero turnovers as well.
If Indianapolis allows this to happen the third game in a row against the Jaguars then they may end up giving up their first loss at Lucas Oil Stadium to their divisional foe since 2017. As I alluded to, one of the factors of Lawrence’s success was the inability to get pressure on the quarterback. The Colts only have one sack and four QB hits in the two outings. That just won’t get the job done against the young quarterback.
One thing that might help out is that the Jags have lost Ben Bartch for the season. He was their starting left guard. This gives an opportunity for DeForest Buckner and company a chance to have reps against a backup offensive lineman. Buckner has a great chance to build off of the best game this season that he had against Denver.
DeForest Buckner was awesome for the #Colts. A couple sacks and hit em with his griddy. pic.twitter.com/vcTR7ARMmV
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 8, 2022
One of the reasons why the Colts upset the Chiefs was because of how often the defensive front got pressure on Patrick Mahomes. They need to emulate that success against Lawrence on Sunday.
3
Matt Ryan protecting the ball
The offensive line isn’t the only thing that has been a weekly reoccurring issue for the Colts. It also has been the turnovers by their new quarterback. While you can point the blame to the majority of his turnovers on the offensive line, especially the fumbles, he also has played a part in the struggles with his interceptions that came off some questionable decisions.
In the first five weeks, Matt Ryan has thrown seven interceptions, three of those came in the loss to the Jaguars. The only game he hasn’t thrown a pick came in the win over Kansas City. But it is his fumbles that have really hurt the team. He leads the NFL with 11 and has lost three of them. The next highest quarterback is Marcus Mariota with seven. They are drive killers and continue to hurt the ability of the offense to sustain drives.
Ryan has fumbled at least twice in four of the first five games and has yet to finish a game without a fumble. You can put all this on the offensive line for his fumble issues but this part of his game has to be cleaned up otherwise this season will be lost before it even has a chance to be saved.
4
The growth of the defense
Sometimes you have to admit when it looks like you were wrong with a take and that was me following the loss to the Jaguars. I, like some others, thought that Gus Bradley might not be the answer as the defensive coordinator for the Colts. Doug Pederson did outcoach Bradley that day and his unit looked unprepared underneath him. That viewpoint has changed since then.
Over the last three games, the Indianapolis defense has only allowed 16.7 PPG. That is the fifth lowest among in that timespan across the NFL. They have only given up five touchdowns in the three games and four of those came off when the offense turned the ball over.
The defense has been doing its part to attempt to turn the course for the Colts but one thing they have been consistent in all five games has been their play in the fourth quarter. They have yet to allow a point scored in the final quarter and that is something that hasn’t been done to start the season in quite some time.
Ludicrous stat from our awesome @CBSSportsHQ research team:
Colts are the first team since the 1995 Chargers to not allow a fourth-quarter point through five weeks.
The only teams to ever shut out their opponents in the fourth through six weeks?
The 1934 Lions and 1934 Bears.
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) October 13, 2022
Bradley’s unit has steadily improved each game and they are the reason why the team still has a shot to potentially win the AFC South. They need to continue that trend on Sunday since it’s a toss-up on when the offense will start to put things together.
5
Can the offense win the first two downs?
There have been multiple reasons why the Colts have struggled on offense but one thing that can help them keep drives alive is putting themselves in favorable third-down situations. Between the sacks and the offensive line not opening up rushing lanes, the offense keeps ending up in third-and-long situations throughout games. At least, the team is aware they need to start fixing their problems in this area of the game.
Something Colts are focusing on at practice this week, per Matt Ryan: switching things up on first- and second-down. It's a *huge* problem right now. "We haven't been good enough," the QB said.
Nearly half the Colts' 3rd downs this season (33/69) have been 3rd-and-7 or longer.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) October 12, 2022
When you have an offensive line that doesn’t give the quarterback enough time to properly go through his reads then you are going to end up having to punt the majority of the time. Overall, Indianapolis has a 36.23% success rate on third downs this season. That is the ninth lowest in the league.
There are a couple of things that Frank Reich can look to do on the first two downs to help out his offense. One thing is getting the running game back on track. The Colts are averaging 91.4 rushing YPG, which is the seventh lowest in the NFL. Being in the bottom 10 of rushing yards per game is something that I don’t think anyone saw coming for this team.
In the last matchup against the Jaguars, they were successful on the ground. Jonathan Taylor averaged 6.0 YPC but he only ran the ball nine times. That can’t happen again if their star back is back this week. The jury is still out on if Taylor will make his return from his ankle injury and if Nyheim Hines will be able to play after suffering a concussion but the offense saw some success with Deon Jackson against the Broncos.
The third-string back ran the ball 13 times for 62 yards last week and the offensive line looked the best they have in the rushing attack since Week 1 against the Houston Texans. But Reich can’t fully count on his rushing attack getting into those favorable third-down situations. It will also be on the passing attack winning their reps as well.
The second thing that can help is just getting the ball out of Matt Ryan’s hands at a quicker rate. They don’t need to be explosive plays all the time. Getting five-yard or more gains from passes in the first two downs would be a plus for this offense. Scheming up ways that Ryan can make fast and easy decisions should be on Reich’s mind ahead of this matchup.
Indianapolis has only averaged over 5.0 yards per play twice this season. Those came in the tie with the Texans and the loss to the Titans. You can argue if Rodrigo Blankenship makes the field goal in overtime against Houston that they win that game. Then the loss to Tennessee was mostly on the offense falling flat on their face whenever they crossed midfield.
If the Colts can go over that mark then I believe they should be able to pull away with the victory this Sunday afternoon.
