The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a somewhat surprising win in Jeff Saturday’s NFL coaching debut but now the question is, how long will the honeymoon phase last?
The victory over the Las Vegas Raiders was great but they have one of the worst records in the league so that can be quickly forgotten if they fall flat on their faces against the Philadelphia Eagles.
It’s a much tougher task now that Saturday’s team will have to face one of the best teams in the NFL. Not only the Eagles are a legit team, but they are coming off their first loss of the season so they will be highly motivated to make sure they avoid losing two games in a row.
A win for the Colts would be huge for a couple of reasons. One, it would bring the team to a .500 record and put them in a position to make a push for the playoffs. The other is that people will have to take them seriously if they can once again handle a good team as they did earlier in the season with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Sunday will show us if last week was a one-week fluke for Indianapolis or if they have turned the corner as a team. Here are five things to watch for when they take the field:
1
Defending Jalen Hurts
One of the reasons why the Eagles are having the season they are is because Jalen Hurts taking the next step in his development as a quarterback. All his passing numbers back it up.
Let’s take a look:
| 2021 | 2022 | |
| Completion Percentage | 61.3% | 67.9% |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 209.6 | 246.3 |
| Yards Per Attempt | 7.3 | 8.4 |
| Touchdown Rate | 3.7% | 5.3% |
| Interception Rate | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Passer Rating | 87.2 | 106.4 |
| ESPN QBR | 48.5 | 63.7 |
His ascension has been great to watch from afar. This can be credited to the addition of A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia passing attack but he’s doing a better job with making accurate deep throws and is avoiding those costly interceptions that he had last season. Despite being their second-leading rusher, he is running the ball less this season.
In 2021, he averaged 52.3 rushing YPG, and this year he’s at 39.3 rushing YPG. One thing that is notable is that in his first two years he averaged 5.4 YPC in each season but is only averaging 3.8 YPC in 2022.
But, it’s not all down in that department. In his 15 games last year he had 10 rushing touchdowns and already has seven this season. Hurts has a knack for the endzone when they get near the goal line.
One last stat that caught my eye on Hurts’ season is how much he has been sacked. In 2021, he was sacked 26 times but this year he has been sacked 23 times in nine games. Defenses have shown they can get after him when he drops back to throw.
Gus Bradley’s defense has been pretty solid against quarterbacks. The Colts’ defense is only allowing 196.3 passing YPG, which ranks as the seventh-best in the NFL. This Eagles offense is a handful but if they can limit the explosive plays and get after Hurts then they can put themselves in a position to win the game in the fourth quarter.
2
Protecting Matt Ryan
The Indy offensive line has been marred by their inability to protect the quarterback this season. But, last week was easily their best performance of the season. They gave plenty of time for Matt Ryan to make his reads but it also helped that the quarterback was getting the ball out of his hands at a quicker rate.
They only gave up one QB hit and the one sack that was given up was not on the offensive line in my opinion. Ryan could’ve avoided it if he hit Kylen Granson in the flat.
The only sack gave up by the #Colts. It could've easily been prevented if Matt Ryan hits Kylen Granson in the flat. Not only it gives the offense the first down but Granson only had one man to beat to get a touchdown. Instead, it leads to the 48-yard missed field goal attempt. pic.twitter.com/iOXtJGDGEI
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 15, 2022
This will be a much more daunting task for the offensive line this week. The Raiders have the lowest amount of sacks this season and now they are facing a defense that has 29 sacks this season. That is tied for the third most in the league.
The Eagles are loaded up on their defensive front. Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, and Robert Quinn can wreak havoc on the edge. Then they have Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave who can disrupt a pocket from the inside. Plus they recently added Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph in the past two days.
Those two are brought in to help out in run support but Suh is still capable of getting after the quarterback. Will Fries looked solid as the new starting right guard but now will be his true test against some of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL.
How the offensive line handles the Philly defensive front will determine the outcome of this matchup. Can they repeat last week’s success or do they revert back to what they have been and the offense fails to generate anything positive on Sunday? Jeff Saturday certainly hopes his magic touch has fixed the problem and they deliver again on Sunday.
3
Limiting A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
Earlier this week the Eagles placed Dallas Goedert on IR which knocked him out of this matchup. This creates more of a focal point on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for Gus Bradley to scheme up how he wants his defense to defend their passing attack. The pair of receivers are responsible for 54.3% of Jalen Hurts passing production.
As I alluded to, the addition of Brown has helped elevate the Philly passing attack. He’s the leading receiver with 725 receiving yards and six touchdowns. The Colts are very familiar with how he can impact a game from his days with the Tennessee Titans. In the six times that Brown faced Indy, he had a total of 21 catches for 344 yards, and two touchdowns. The majority of that production came in his last game versus Indianapolis. He finished with 11 receptions for 155 yards and a touchdown.
Smith is third on the team with 481 yards and three touchdowns. The second-year player can be a problem to corners because of his route-running ability and how shifty he is in open space. It does help that Indianapolis has a trio of corners that are playing some good football as of late.
Stephon Gilmore, Kenny Moore II, and Isaiah Rodgers Sr. will all get a chance to defend these receivers. The Eagles have been playing Brown in the slot more than he has in the past but Moore II showed last season he is up for that assignment.
Kenny Moore putting on a clinic against A.J. Brown covering this vertical slot on third down pic.twitter.com/NHUd5SpMaC
— Kevin Hickey (@KevinHickey11) September 27, 2021
Gilmore and Rodgers Sr. are coming off a game where they proved they can cover one of the best route runners in the league against Davante Adams. Rodger Sr. had a nice third-down pass breakup when he was one-on-one with him.
Just excellent coverage by Isaiah Rodgers Sr. on Davante Adams. Stops on a dime to explode up the field to get the third down deflection. pic.twitter.com/yBvpM2cVmz
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 15, 2022
Then it was once again Gilmore closing out a win for the Colts with his coverage on Adams.
Stephon Gilmore vs Davante Adams with the game on the line pic.twitter.com/O6oK5xUVh4
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 15, 2022
With Goedert out of the lineup, if Bradley can get his defense to limit the impact from Brown and Smith then they can help keep the Philadelphia offense on the sidelines as the Washington Commanders did in their upset win this past Monday night.
4
Can the offense put up points again?
While it is ideal for the Colts to see their defense shut down the Eagles offense, there is also the chance that Philadelphia gets back to what they have done this season and put up points. They are averaging 27.3 PPG so the goal for the Indy offense is to get to 30+ points. They have only done that once this season and that came in their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Their 25 points last week were the only time they have gone over 20 points since that win. They have only reached that mark in four of their 10 games. Last week was a good step in the right direction but the new play caller, Parks Frazier, will have to show just like Jeff Saturday wasn’t just a flash in the pan for the offense.
One thing that helped sparked the offense was the sudden resurgence of Jonathan Taylor. It was boosted by the offensive line dominating in the trenches and giving their backroom some room to work with. Eventually, their effort paid off when they perfectly executed the blocking to spring Taylor for his 66-yard touchdown run.
Just how the play was drawn up. The blocking was perfectly executed, and Jonathan Taylor does the rest to take it 66 yards to the house. pic.twitter.com/FswE7Tai85
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 15, 2022
As I mentioned, the Eagles made some additions to help bolster their rushing defense but they are giving up 124.8 rushing YPG, which ranks as the 13th most allowed in the league. But it can just be all through the ground game. Matt Ryan and the passing attack are going to have to do their part as well.
The Philly secondary features Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. All three defenders are ballhawks so Ryan will have to be calculated with the throws he makes. They can easily turn an interception into a score or at least give their offense great field position.
The combination of the Eagles’ coverage and the pass rush has hindered passing attacks this season. They are only giving up 177.7 passing YPG, which is the second-best in the NFL. Just like last week, it will need to be a nice mixture of the run and pass for the Colts’ offense to find success but regardless of how they end up moving the ball, the most important part is finishing their drives with touchdowns.
5
Third Down Defense
Getting off the field will be a key for the Colts’ defense to help slow down the potent Eagles offense. This is a strength-on-strength matchup between the units. Indianapolis has one of the best defenses in third downs this season. Opponents are only converting 33.59% of their third downs, which is the fourth-best in the NFL.
That is a major improvement from last year. In 2021, teams converted 40.48% of their third downs against the Colts. As far as Philadelphia, their offense is converting 47.01% of their third down attempts. This is something that they have been consistent with over the past two seasons. In 2021, they were able to convert 45.11% of their third down attempts.
It’s likely going to be a back-and-forth battle as the two units feel each other out and find out what works in this situation. Indy needs to keep being successful at winning the first two downs and putting their offense in third-and-long situations. As long as the offense protects the ball, the Colts can win this game if they send the Eagles offense to the sidelines often on Sunday afternoon.
