The bye week is over, Thanksgiving dinner has been eaten, and the Indianapolis Colts enter the final seven weeks of the season in the playoff hunt.
In Week 12, they are hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A team despite being 4-6, is still in the thick of a playoff chase because the NFC South doesn’t have a team that has pulled away for a clear lead in the division. These two franchises have only met six times since 2003. They’ve split those games evenly but Tampa has won the last two matchups with Indy’s last win over the Bucs coming in 2015.
With both teams having something to play for at this point of the season, I expect a hard-fought battle for all for four quarters.
Here are five things to watch for when they kick off the game in Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday:
1
E.J. Speed's expanded role
The Colts dropped some very surprising news this week when it was announced that they were releasing Shaquille Leonard from the team. While Leonard’s performance severely dropped due to the injuries he’s dealt with over the season, it still was a shock since you would figure this move would be coming in the offseason.
Regardless, E.J. Speed was set to take on a larger role after the bye week because Leonard did tell the media that he was told he was going to be inactive going forward prior to his release.
Outside of maybe keeping Leonard on the roster in a backup role, this was the correct move by Gus Bradley and the coaching staff. Speed has been the better linebacker this season for the Colts and deserved to see more consistent playing time with the starting unit.
It will be interesting to see how the defense performs with Speed and Zaire Franklin on the field together more going forward. I think back to this sequence of plays by both that helped the Colts beat the Baltimore Ravens earlier this season.
Can't underestimate this sequence of plays by Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed.
2nd-and-12: Franklin chases down Lamar Jackson in the open field to tackle him short of the sticks.
3rd-and-1: Speed shoots the gap to get the TFL on Melvin Gordon to force the punt. pic.twitter.com/YlVkDY14X7
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) September 26, 2023
You could argue that Speed has been the better linebacker in coverage for Indianapolis this season.
E.J. Speed played this so well. Read the route the whole way and gets his hand on the ball for the pass breakup. pic.twitter.com/hj8axu8Vis
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 9, 2023
This data point does back it up, entering Week 11, Speed had the third-lowest passer rating allowed by a linebacker.
Lowest Passer Rating Allowed by LBs (min. 20 targets) entering Week 11 in the NFL:
1) #Patriots Jahlani Tavai – 54.0
2) #Raiders Robert Spillane – 63.8
3) #Colts E.J. Speed – 64.4
4) #Bucs Devin White – 65.7
5) #Texans Blake Cashman – 68.2
6) #49ers Fred Warner – 68.3
7) #Rams… https://t.co/ozRp2FBdM8 pic.twitter.com/olpvSo3VDC— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 18, 2023
Speed has shown that he has been ready for a larger role. Now it’s time to see how he will handle it and can be an impact player for the Indy defense to close out the season.
2
Can Jonathan Taylor break the Tampa rush defense?
This will be a strength-on-strength matchup when the Colts offense and the Bucs defense are on the field. Indy has been one of the better rushing offenses this season and Tampa has been stout against the run. They are only allowing 90.0 rushing YPG, which is the fifth-best in the NFL.
Over the course of the season, only one running back has finished over 100 rushing yards against them, which was D’Andre Swift back in Week 3. Tampa’s defense also hasn’t allowed a running back to score a rushing touchdown against them all season.
As a matter of fact, they’ve only allowed one running back to score a touchdown against them all year, which was Christian McCaffrey last week through the air.
These are some interesting stats for fantasy football folks to keep in mind heading into the weekend. But as far as the Colts, they have to step up to the challenge and get the ground game going to take pressure off Gardner Minshew having to win this contest for them.
There are a couple of key players on the Bucs that could miss this game which would be a significant blow to their rush defense. It has been reported that the leader of the unit, Lavonte David, won’t be playing on Sunday.
Bucs LB Lavonte David (groin) and CB Jamel Dean (ankle) will not play in Sunday’s game at Indianapolis. They have not practiced this week. LB Devin White will practice today and at best could be a game time decision with an injured foot.
— Rick Stroud (@NFLSTROUD) November 24, 2023
On top of that, his counterpart Devin White could miss this game with a foot injury. If he also can’t go, then Shane Steichen will have an opportunity to try to confuse a pair of backup linebackers to get his rushing attack going early in this matchup.
If Jonathan Taylor can cross 100 rushing yards on Sunday then I feel like it would be a safe bet that the Colts win this game.
3
Keep Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in check
There are two impact players on the Bucs offense that Gus Bradley has to make sure that his defense limits throughout this matchup on Sunday. It starts with Mike Evans. He leads the team by a wide margin with 780 receiving yards on 48 receptions. Evans also leads the team with seven touchdowns this season.
Godwin is second on the team with 561 receiving yards on 50 receptions but only has one touchdown this season. Both players are responsible for 56.1% of Tampa’s passing yards this season and 42.1% of their total touchdowns for the year.
As of this writing, it does appear that the Indy defense will once again be without JuJu Brents, who has yet to return to practice. It will be up to Jaylon Jones and Darrell Baker Jr. to step up to keep the star receivers at bay for the defense.
But Bradley should also have his safeties aware to help both out anytime Evans is lined up across them because Baker Mayfield isn’t afraid to take those deep shots to Evans.
Godwin will lineup in a variety of ways but expect to see him with Kenny Moore II in coverage often on Sunday. This should be a fun battle to watch between a great route runner against one of the best nickel corners in the league.
The less of an impact these two players have on Sunday then the Colts should be in prime position to win this contest in the fourth quarter.
4
Can the passing attack deliver?
As I mentioned, the Bucs feature one of the best rush defenses in the league, and it is very plausible that the Colts might have to win this game behind Gardner Minshew and the passing attack. Which isn’t a very promising thing to lean on based on how Minshew played heading into the bye week.
The good news for Shane Steichen and his offense is that Tampa has struggled in pass defense this season. They are allowing 270.7 passing YPG, which is the second most allowed in the NFL.
Over their last four games, the Bucs have allowed three quarterbacks to throw over 300 passing yards, and have given up 10 passing touchdowns. Minshew and his receivers should be licking their chops knowing that they could have one of their best performances of the season on Sunday.
It also should help that it was reported that one of Tampa’s starting boundary cornerbacks, Jamel Dean, will be missing this game. Can Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce take advantage of that?
Steichen will also have to factor in that with Lavonte David being out as well as possibly Devin White, Minshew should be able to attack the middle of their defense with Josh Downs and the tight ends.
If Minshew can play decisive on Sunday then the Indy offense should find success through the air which can help open up things for Jonathan Taylor on the ground.
5
Any improvement from the rush defense?
This will be a great litmus test for Gus Bradley’s defense to see if his unit has made any improvement in defending the opponent’s rushing attack after the bye week. It was clear he wanted to make an improvement in that area when the decision was made that E.J. Speed would be taking over for Shaquille Leonard this week.
But that move alone won’t solve the issue for the Colts. The missing piece has always been clear. It’s Grover Stewart.
Colts run defense…
In 6 games with Grover Stewart:
113 yards per game
3.7 yards per carryIn 4 games without Grover Stewart:
154 yards per game
4.7 yards per carry— Nate Atkins (@NateAtkins_) November 13, 2023
Stewart still has two more games until he is able to return from his suspension so it will be up to the young players on the defensive front to step up their play until he’s back on the field.
The reason why this is a great litmus test for the defense is because this should be a rushing attack they should be able to keep in check. The Bucs are only averaging 76.9 rushing YPG, which is the lowest in the league.
Their lead running back Rachaad White has only crossed 70 rushing yards twice this season and has finished below 50 rushing yards in six of their 10 games.
If White is able to find success on the ground against the Colts then it just shows this unit is nothing in run defense without Stewart. They should be able to win the first two downs on Sunday and keep the Bucs offense in third-and-long situations often.
