It’s a quick turnaround for the Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) after suffering a disappointing loss to the Tennessee Titans (2-2) in Week 4.
They get their first prime-time game of the season on the road against the Denver Broncos (2-2). These teams have only met once during the Frank Reich era. The Colts won a 15-13 game back in 2019. A lot has changed for each franchise since then.
Indianapolis was quarterbacked by Jacoby Brissett and Denver was led by Joe Flacco. The series is tied at 14-14 so there are bragging rights on the line for each fanbase. Each team is heading into this matchup with a lot of question marks and what their future looks like so I expect it will be a battle to the end.
Here are five things to keep an eye on Thursday night:
1
Defending Russell Wilson
It certainly hasn’t been rainbows and butterflies in Denver for Russell Wilson’s first season with the franchise. The offense has looked shaky in the first month of the NFL season and has been far from the firework show that people thought we would see. The Broncos offense is averaging 16.5 points per game, which is the third-lowest in the NFL. Not that the Colts offense has anything to hang their hat on with their lowest average of 14.3 points per game.
This has been a surprise of the 2022 season to see the Wilson-led offense struggle despite the weapons he has to work with. The Denver quarterback is averaging 245.0 passing yards per game and has four touchdowns and an interception in four games. His 61.1% completion percentage and 91.1 passer rating would be career-low if he doesn’t improve those numbers.
One thing that stuck out to me is that Wilson isn’t running as much as he has in the past. He is averaging 12.9 rushing yards per game and only averaged 13.1 rushing yards per game last season. In 2019, he averaged 32.1 rushing YPG. He shouldn’t have to run often but his mobility is what made him so great throughout his career.
There will be much more on his plate against Indianapolis on Thursday night. Their up-and-coming running back, Javonte Williams, is out for the season so the Broncos will be working with Melvin Gordon, Mike Boone, and Latavius Murray going forward. Wilson will need to improve his play to help establish an identity to their offense with the Colts in his sights to get it on track.
Despite his struggles, Gus Bradley and the defense shouldn’t take the task lightly. Wilson is coming off his best game of the season. Throwing for 237 yards, two touchdowns, and picking up 29 yards on the ground. It was just over a year ago when he lit up the Colts in the 2021 season opener. In that game, he had 254 yards and four touchdowns.
The last thing Indianapolis can afford to happen is Wilson looking like his former self in prime time.
2
Is the offensive line a detriment again?
There are plenty of reasons why the Colts are off to a poor start but the most disappointing part has been on the offensive line. Despite making a change at right guard with Will Fries taking over for Danny Pinter, the line held back the offense through the game against the Titans. It started with a brutal showing on the ground game.
They failed to open up any rushing lanes for Jonathan Taylor and just got pushed around in the trenches. There could be an opportunity to get that part of the offense going against the Broncos. They are giving up 114.0 rushing yards, which is the 15th highest in the NFL. But, that of course will be dependent on his health of Taylor and if he is able to suit up.
Even if he does play, he will likely be less than 100% so that puts more pressure on Matt Ryan so pass protection will be needed to be up to par on Thursday night. There were stretches at times where Ryan had time to make throws against Tennessee but the remaining leaky holes did pop up and killed Colts drives.
It showed on the first drive when Quenton Nelson got straight-up beat by Denico Autry.
Denico Autry straight-up beat Quenton Nelson to force Matt Ryan's first fumble of the game. pic.twitter.com/dCVkeXiQdu
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 3, 2022
Then the issue of failing to pick up stunts ended the offense’s final drive of the game.
The #Colts offensive line has struggled to pick up stunts this season. Not sure what Matt Pryor is thinking here. Denico Autry is able to push him with ease to get the sack to end the final drive for the Indianapolis offense. pic.twitter.com/1hSAQsXKAe
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 4, 2022
The longer these problems are persistent the more the Colts will continue to put themselves in thrid-and-long situations and put their defense in a poor field position. There is plenty to work out within the offense but I will remain adamant that until the offensive line starts stacking up clean games then this unit will flounder throughout the rest of the year.
It won’t get any easier against the Broncos’ defensive front that features Bradley Chubb and Dre’Mont Jones. Randy Gregory was recently placed on IR so that is one less worry for Frank Reich and his offense.
3
The growth of the defensive front
It was an awful performance in the first half of the Titans game for the entire defense but they responded strongly in the second half. Six of the last eight quarters have been impressive for the front four of Gus Bradley’s unit. If you remove the production on the ground from Derrick Henry in that first half, the Colts held Henry and the Kansas City Chiefs to a total of 73 rushing yards in six quarters.
Denver does average 109.5 rushing YPG but as I mentioned, Javonte Williams is out of the lineup so they may lean more on their new franchise quarterback. If that does happen and Indianapolis can make the Broncos one-dimensional then it will be on the front four to get after Russell Wilson.
The effort will be led by Yannick Ngakoue, Kwity Paye, and DeForest Buckner. I’d like to see Gus Bradley continue to throw timely blitzes and stunts at offenses.
Great timing on this stunt by DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye. Paye finishes it off to get his third sack of the season. pic.twitter.com/WndiagevTq
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 4, 2022
This won’t be won just by the names on the defense. The Colts will need some of their young players in the rotation to step up. Tyquan Lewis has been ruled out so his veteran presence will be missed. Second-year defensive lineman, Dayo Odeyingbo was selected to be that guy for this team. After getting his first sack of the season, could he start playing with more confidence this week?
Dayo Odeyingbo with his first sack of the season. The #Colts will need him to make some plays with Tyquan Lewis out of the rotation on Thursday night. pic.twitter.com/GkgOJP4aEL
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 4, 2022
Russell Wilson has been sacked 12 times this season. That is the fifth-highest make so there is a proven opportunity that defenses can get after him in Denver. If the Colts want to avoid having him look like his old self then they need to get in his face early and often to make sure he doesn’t get in a rhythm.
4
A clean game by Matt Ryan
Russell Wilson isn’t the only quarterback that is struggling with his new team to start the season. It also hasn’t been pretty at all for Matt Ryan. The Colts traded for the quarterback with the thought in mind that they would get some stability at the position. They didn’t need Ryan to play at an MVP-level but to do enough to keep the sticks moving and protect the ball. That last part hasn’t happened at all yet.
His nine fumbles are the most by a quarterback this season. The second-highest mark is six. Three of those were lost and the rest killed any opportunity of hope that drives had. This has been very surprising to see coming from a player who is in his 15th season.
Ryan has five interceptions in four games. His 3.2% interception percentage would be the highest of his career. His previous high was 2.6% and that came back in 2015.
The combination of Ryan’s turnovers and the offensive line play are holding this team back from putting up points. If Ryan can play a clean game of football against the Broncos then the Colts should be in a position to win the game in the fourth quarter.
5
Evolving the passing attack
While the focus has rightfully been on the struggles of Matt Ryan and the offensive line following the loss to the Titans, one thing I believe was overlooked was the passing attack having their best game of the season. Obviously, the Colts had their hands forced when they were down 24-3 but it was promising to see some life from Ryan and his weapons to help make it a game in the fourth quarter.
Ryan threw for a season-high 356 passing yards and Michael Pittman Jr. accounted for 8.7% of those yards. He was able to spread the ball to his receivers and tight ends to help keep the chains moving. This will likely need to be repeated again because of Jonathan Taylor’s injury and with Patrick Surtain II to likely shadow Pittman Jr. for most of the game.
Look for Alec Pierce to stack his third game in a row of making some plays for Indianapolis.
Alec Pierce continues his growth for the #Colts. The rookie made some plays on Sunday.
– 25-yard reception on 3rd-and-3
– Back-to-back catches to get a first down
– Adjusts to the underthrown ball and secures a 44-yard reception.Pierce is carving out a bigger role. pic.twitter.com/2MbdTvxmrW
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 4, 2022
One thing that will help out the rushing attack is when the offense starts attacking defenses more vertically. Parris Campbell needs to be one of those guys for the Colts. He’s coming off his best game of the season, catching four balls for 43 yards. But the use of the tight ends is what really shined against Tennessee.
Frank Reich loves to use the position group within his scheme and it was on display this past Sunday. Mo Alie-Cox was another player with his best game of this young season.
The #Colts tight ends accounted for 50.5% of the passing yards. That effort was led by Mo Alie-Cox with 6 receptions for 85 yards and 2 touchdowns. pic.twitter.com/BDYcrIsbet
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 4, 2022
As well as for Kylen Granson. The second-year tight end put his receiving skills on display and showed what he can add to the offense.
Kylen Granson had his best game of his young career with the #Colts. All 4 of his receptions resulted in first downs and had a career-high 62 receiving yards. His last catch was great! Hope his performance builds him some confidence going forward. pic.twitter.com/O5ny80R2H1
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 3, 2022
Will this showing from the role players continue into Thursday night? Frank Reich certainly hopes so.
