When fires start, they often seem to require a double-take in order for the brain to fully comprehend a sense of emergency. The first look is one to ensure that all is well. The second look is to challenge the idea that smoke, heat and flickering light aren’t rapidly climbing a curtain in the house, bent for destruction. The second look also alerts us to fully engage in a state of panic.
This process comes to mind when thinking about the 2022 Colts, who, on Monday, let the world know that they’ve permanently benched Matt Ryan in favor of Sam Ehlinger. Before this season started, and even up until last week, one could safely glance over at the roster, the record, the personalities and the people involved and think all was well. Ryan and Frank Reich together? What could go wrong? Maybe a whiff of burning leaves, a little plume of something oddly colored, but nothing to trigger the alarm.
As of Monday, with yet another of Indianapolis’s veteran quarterbacks effectively receiving his walking papers, we have turned to look again, this time at a fully formed blaze.
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The Colts have now dealt two third-round picks and a first-round pick for Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan, neither of whom will make it to a second season in Indianapolis (we assume). While one could argue the Colts did the best they could—they did not fully debase themselves for Deshaun Watson, even though they requested a meeting that was denied by the Texans so as to block Watson from staying in the AFC South, they did not trade even more draft capital for an equally ineffective Russell Wilson, they didn’t overspend for someone such as Jimmy Garoppolo, they didn’t take on any of Baker Mayfield’s salary and they did not take a first-round quarterback in this year’s draft—their best efforts have pinned the franchise in a position where the Ehlinger move was their most sensible option; the ultimate, blind haymaker at the end of a fight in which they’ve been clearly beaten.
The arson investigation here is a difficult one. The Colts’ only other sensible option—dating back to the retirement of Andrew Luck—was to theoretically go all-in for a quarterback in the 2020 draft, when they could have found a trade partner ahead of the Dolphins or Chargers for Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. Their low first-round draft capital that year was tied up in a deal for DeForrest Buckner, which was necessary to amp up a threadbare pass rush that was overperforming under Matt Eberflus. They could have made a more aggressive push to sign Tom Brady when Brady was available, instead of Philip Rivers, though one would imagine Brady wasn’t thrilled with the idea of boosting a club that ratted on him during Deflategate (Brady also knew Josh McDaniels well, and was certainly privy to the reasons why McDaniels bailed on the Colts at the last minute).
Also saying Brady was, at the time, a markedly better option than Rivers was a bit of revisionist history. While we have obviously come to appreciate Brady’s career in a new light and perspective after his successful two-year run in Tampa Bay, Rivers was also wildly accomplished, a bit younger and intimately knowledgeable of Frank Reich’s offense.
Perhaps we can chalk it up to the end of blind fortunes. This is, after all, a team that stumbled into both Peyton Manning and Luck in subsequent eras. Outside of the Packers, no team was as abundantly blessed at the position over the past few decades. In terms of Ryan, we could question the scouting processes that led to the decision to trade for a quarterback who seems to be out of gas, and finished last year 24th in passing efficiency.
But mostly we can be left with this feeling that we don’t know who started the fire, only that it’s been burning to some degree for the past half decade now (isn’t that what Billy Joel said?). We can stop feeling bad for the Colts and blaming Luck, as we noted we should earlier in the season, while recognizing that there really wasn’t another way that this could happen. At some point, they were destined to arrive at a place where their desire to continually boost a competitive roster met the limited basin of resources at their disposal.
It’s not a great look for Ryan. It’s terrible optically for the Colts. Fires always are. The question now is who gets to put it out. Reports from Indianapolis suggest owner Jim Irsay has been heavily involved in the decision-making of late. Right now, Reich and GM Chris Ballard are the ones tasked with once again figuring out where to go from here, but it may eventually be someone sifting through the ashes.
