One of the key aspects of the NFL draft is to maximize the value of selections, and the Indianapolis Colts led the charge in that department for the 2023 class.
There are many ways to quantify what a value pick is. No metric is perfect and so much projection goes into the draft that there is always some level of subjectivity.
The teams with a lot of early picks likely get the best return on investment as those prospect typically are ready to play sooner than those drafted later. But not all draft capital is created the same, and teams can still find value without owning multiple picks in the early rounds.
Using Daniel Jeremiah’s top 150 prospect rankings, NFL research created a formula “to quantify which teams secured the most value relative to the draft capital at their disposal.” The Colts came away with the best value over expected with their selections.
To quantify which teams secured the most value relative to the draft capital at their disposal, we apply the same formula to the first 150 picks made in the draft – the first pick is worth 150 expected points, all the way down to the 150th pick worth 1 expected point.
Based on the formula outline above, the Colts also rank lst in terms of value over expected from their 2023 draft class. IND’s picks had an expect value of 425 points, so the 591 points of value in the draft class is 39.1 pct above their expected value
Of course, this is all a bit subjective considering the point values are based on Jeremiah’s prospect rankings. As smart as he is when it comes to scouting, it’s not a perfect system because there will understandably be mistakes within the rankings.
All of this is to say that the Colts had a very valuable draft class based on Jeremiah’s rankings. Their Day 3 picks included several players who can contribute on special teams with a few able to compete for starting roles in Year 1.
Development will be key for each of the 12 picks, but the Colts seemingly came away with a lot of value in 2023.
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