FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Colorado State’s outlook for an active hurricane season became slightly more active with Thursday’s update, which forecast 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes this year.
But another note from its update sounds an ominous note for Floridians.
“We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the updated outlook said.
The updated outlook said there’s a 76% chance the United States coastline gets hit by a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher). The average for the last century is 52%.
The updated outlook also said there’s a 51% chance the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, gets hit by a major hurricane (31% average over the last century), and a 50% chance the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville gets hit by a major hurricane (30% average for last century).
Colorado State’s initial forecast in April predicted 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and three or four major hurricanes.
Colorado State and other entities routinely update their initial hurricane season forecast later in the season as storm-producing factors become more apparent.
Hurricane season began Wednesday and ends Nov. 30.
The forecast increased due to the low chance of El Niño and warm water temperatures, researchers said.
Accordingly, forecasters are watching an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico/northwest Caribbean Sea that has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Regardless of whether the system develops it’s going to bring lots of rain to South Florida on Friday and Saturday.
Colorado State researchers said their updated outlook is based on an extended-range early June statistical prediction based on about 40 years of data along with analog predictors.
If the forecast for this season holds, it would the seventh above-average season in a row, according to Philip Klotzbach, research scientist for Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.
With a larger number of storms predicted, the initial Colorado State forecast said in April, the chances of landfalls have increased.
“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the April forecast states.
The April forecast cited the likelihood of above-average ocean temperatures, which provide the fuel for hurricanes. And it cited the likely absence of an El Niño, the occasional warming of the Pacific Ocean that produces wind shear over the Atlantic that can tear up storms as they try to form. That didn’t change with Thursday’s update.
The updated Colorado State outlook remains the most aggressive in terms of number of storms.
A forecast released by AccuWeather called for six to eight hurricanes, of which three to five would be major. Last season saw seven hurricanes, of which four were major hurricanes.
A forecast released by NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) called for six to 10 hurricanes, and three to six major hurricanes.
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(Staff writer David Fleshler contributed to this report.)
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