The natural ups and downs of football and the vagaries of the so-called "premiership window" means the chances of finding three particular teams at or near the top of the AFL ladder at the same time can vary widely.
We are seven rounds down in 2023, less than a third of the way through the season, but at this early stage we are on track for something to happen that has not occurred in more than 80 years — with the Magpies, Demons and Saints all finishing in the top four.
All three clubs have been strong in the opening seven games, albeit with different game styles and approaches, with at least one of them confounding the critics and expectations in the process.
They have each had their times in the doldrums and their times to shine. The Demons have had four grand final appearances in 60 years, including the flag win in 1964, with gaps of 24 years between 1964 and 1988, 12 years from then to 2000 and then 21 years to their win 2021.
In the same period, Collingwood has made it to 13 grand finals, winning two — 1990 and 2010.
There is — or at least was at one time — a synergy between the Demons and the Magpies, with the two clubs facing off in grand finals in 1955, 1956, 1958, 1960 and 1964.
Collingwood and St Kilda famously played twice in grand finals — 1966, the last time the Saints won a flag, and 2010, when the two teams drew before the Magpies prevailed in a replay. The Saints and Demons have never gone head-to-head in a grand final.
The VFL in 1939
Looking back to the VFL 84 years ago, Melbourne finished top of the ladder with 15 wins from 18 rounds, just ahead of Collingwood on percentage.
The Pies clinched their second spot with a win over Richmond in round 18, leaving the Tigers in third spot on 13 wins for the season.
St Kilda filled the last place in the VFL finals, finishing on the same number of wins as Richmond but with a smaller percentage.
The home and away round finished on September 2, 1939 — a little over 24 hours after the start of hostilities in World War II.
On September 8, the finals began with St Kilda upsetting the seedings, defeating Richmond by 30 points in their semi-final.
A week later, the Demons prevailed against the Magpies by 14 points.
On September 23, Collingwood ended the Saints' season, winning by 29 points in the preliminary final. This left the Pies and Demons in the decider on September 30. Melbourne prevailed by 53 points for the team's third-ever flag.
This was the last time the three sides finished top four, and the last time these teams were the last three in contention for the flag.
For Melbourne, the great Norm Smith played at full-forward, kicking 54 goals for the season, after a career-high 80 the year before.
Ron Baggott played centre half-forward, kicking 34 goals for the year, while Ron Barassi senior — whose son Ron would be named an AFL Legend 57 years later — booted 28 goals as a rover.
Barassi senior only played one more season with the Demons before joining the army — he was killed in action at Tobruk in 1941.
The Brownlow Medal winner was Collingwood centreman Marcus Whelan, while the top goal kicker for the season was his teammate Ron Todd, who booted 98 goals for the home and away season, and added another 23 goals in his three finals.
This was Todd's last season with Collingwood, before his transfer to VFA side Williamstown, where he averaged a tick over 67 goals a season for the next decade before retiring.
The Pies had the second-best attack in the league that year, just behind the Demons.
For the Saints, Bill Mohr was the leader in attack, kicking 47 goals for the season. One of the best full-forwards of the 1930s, he had brought up the ton in 1936, finishing with 101 goals for St Kilda in just 17 games.
Mohr was backed up by Ansell Clarke, who finished with 38 goals for the year. Clarke had joined St Kilda in 1938 as captain coach after nine seasons playing for Carlton.
Norm Smith, Marcus Whelan and Bill Mohr all made their respective sides' Team of the Century, while Ron Todd was inducted into the Australian Football Hall of Fame, and Smith was made a Legend in the Australian Football Hall of Fame.
The 1939 season was a snapshot of all three teams contending, but football moves on — Melbourne went on to be champions in 1940 and 1941, and they won seven more flags in the '40s, 50s and '60s.
But Collingwood would not make it back to a grand final for 13 years, winning two premierships from three tries in the 1950s, while the Saints would not grace the finals again until 1961.
2023 for the Pies, Dees and Saints
Back to the present, with Collingwood topping the ladder followed by Melbourne and St Kilda a game back in second and third.
We know the Magpies are playing relentless, attacking football and rarely if ever back away from taking risks — just check their latest in a string of late, late wins when they turned things into a footrace to outpace their tiring opponents in the dying minutes against the Crows in Adelaide.
A trait they share with the Saints is a willingness to take running bounces — Collingwood average 6.4 a game (fourth), while St Kilda average 8.0 a game, top of the league.
While many are crediting the obvious Nick Daicos effect for the Pies' hot start, the addition of ex-Hawk Tom Mitchell has also been important. Mitchell leads Collingwood in contested possessions, with an average of 12.86 a game.
Overall, the Pies have gone from 13th in the AFL in contested possessions in 2022 to second this season so far. The attacking side is highlighted by the fact they are the number one team in inside 50s, with an average of 58.4 forward entries a game.
It has been canvassed widely that the Pies' incredible run of close or come-from-behind wins in the last season and a bit under Craig McRae has had a cumulative effect on the league.
After 15 wins in their last 17 close ones, there is an expectation now that Collingwood will overcome almost any lead.
That combination of belief within the Pies and the knowledge in the opposition of what's coming makes for an important psychological advantage.
Collingwood is sitting on top of the ladder at 6-1, while still having a sizeable injury list. However the biggest question is how the Pies deal in the medium term with the shortage of talls in the absence of Mason Cox, Darcy Cameron and Dan McStay.
Overall though, Collingwood proved last year that the team could maintain that intensity for a whole season — there's no reason why they can't do that again this year.
In their premiership season of 2021, the Demons showed how dangerous they could be from centre clearances.
Just ask the Bulldogs after the third quarter of that year's grand final, when the combination of Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca helped to run over the opposition.
After a tough second half of 2022, Melbourne has returned to its strength, with Oliver and Petracca joined by Jack Viney in the top 35 centre clearance specialists in the league.
Petracca is also offering a dangerous forward option, with two three-goal games in the opening seven rounds.
What Melbourne does better than anyone in the AFL in 2023 is score goals — an average of 16.9 goals every game.
Obviously the blowout on the weekend against North Melbourne boosts that figure, but the Demons attack has been close to unstoppable in their five wins so far.
A similarity with the Saints is the amount of metres gained. While Ross Lyon's team leads the way with an average of 6,442m per game, the Demons are not far behind, in second with 6,362.4m an outing.
The Saints finished a game plus percentage out of the eight last season, prompting a new start second time around under Ross Lyon.
His new defensive focus has not held up in every game, with Port Adelaide getting the win on the weekend by seven points.
But the overall effect is striking — the Saints are conceding an average of 62.9 points a game, with their nearest rivals the Magpies on 75.9 a game and the Demons the fourth-stingiest, (behind Carlton) on 76.6 points a game.
St Kilda's focus has been high on keeping possession, high on marking in order to control the ball and cut off the opposition. The Saints are averaging more than 400 disposals a game (#1), and are also top in effective disposals with 295 a game.
This leads to their 106.6 marks per game, second in the league. But they also are number one in contested possessions, with 142.4 a game.
It's a simple but so far effective game plan, because the whole team effort is there.
The Saints are a far from purely defensive side, however. They do have the ability to move the ball accurately and quickly downfield, as they showed in their loss to the Power.
At this point, the Saints would be viewed as the most likely of the trio to slip a little and potentially finish in the lower half of the eight.
However the club is likely to regain a couple of important players in the near future, chief among them spearhead Max King, who is due back from a shoulder injury in a fortnight or so.
King's return should help sharpen an attack that rates number 11 in the AFL in 2023, averaging 83.7 points a game.
They also should get defender Jimmy Webster and midfielder Zak Jones back in the next few weeks, adding to depth, with defender Nick Coffield and forward/ruck Jack Hayes hoping to return from knee injuries in the second half of the year.
Obviously, there are 16 weeks left in this year's home and away season and plenty can happen. Other teams — potentially Port Adelaide and Geelong, for example — will make a charge for the top four.
But right now, all three of the Magpies, Demons and Saints are showing the potential to be right in the mix for the double chance, and a slice of history in the process.
