Neither of our college football experts should quit their day jobs just yet after last week’s picking performance including the grand goose egg put up by Richard Johnson. Can he get off the schneid and close what’s beginning to look like a little bit of a gap?
All lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook. Last week: Forde 2–3, Johnson 0–5. Season: Forde 16-16-1, Johnson 13-19-1.
Oregon vs. Washington (-3)
Johnson: Oregon. The weak link out of the four units is Washington’s defense, and it's going to be key here because what they’re specifically bad at is red zone defense. This is going to be a touchdown fight, and you can’t bring field goals, so you have to finish drives. Drives that I believe Oregon can string into long ones because they have a good running game. Keep Michael Penix Jr. on the sideline as much as you can and win the game outright, not just cover the spread.
Forde: Washington. This game will be a blast, just as it was last year in Eugene when the two teams combined for four second-half touchdowns of longer than 45 yards, and Dan Lanning burst into flames with a late fourth-down gamble that handed the game to the Huskies. I believe Washington has progressed farther year over year, and with the home field advantage this is a strong Huskies lean for me. They’ll cover the three in another shootout that helps both Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix further their Heisman Trophy candidacies.
The Oregon-Washington Football Rivalry May Never Be This Great Again
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee (-3.5)
Johnson: Tennessee. Gimme the Vols, because I’m just not quite so certain that A&M’s passing defense is actually going to hold up in this game. Alabama showed that the Aggies are not only gettable but also deeply exploitable. This Tennessee offense is built to feast on that.
Forde: Tennessee. This is less a matter of analyzing the matchup than analyzing the setup. And it sets up extremely well for the Volunteers. They’re coming off an open date for additional rest and preparation, while the Aggies are coming off a slugfest with Alabama and now must go on the road. Tennessee is much improved defensively, leading the SEC in fewest yards allowed per play, and should be able to make life difficult for Max Johnson and a fitful A&M offense.
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USC vs. Notre Dame (-2.5)
Johnson: Notre Dame. It’s simple in theory but harder on the field: Run the ball till USC stops it (and it might not ever do that). Keep Caleb Williams on the sideline, and make the Trojans prove for four quarters that they can hit and tackle against a punishing run game. They haven’t done that against a good team yet. Could this be the start of turning over a new leaf for the Trojans’ defense? I’m not counting on it.
Ford: USC. I honestly don’t know what to expect here. Notre Dame looked like a weary team at the end of the Louisville game last week, playing its third undefeated team in a row, and now here comes No. 4. But the Trojans also were nearly out on their feet Saturday night, playing multiple overtimes against Arizona. Caleb Wiliams in particular took a beating in that game and will have to rally for this one—but he’s a gamer’s gamer, so I expect him to do so. If anyone can make USC’s defense look competent, it might be the struggling Notre Dame offense. So I’m tepidly taking the Trojans here.
Miami vs. North Carolina (-3.5)
Johnson: North Carolina. In a game I think it comes down to who has the better passer, I’m taking Drake Maye, who could end up being evaluated as even better than Caleb Williams when all is said and done. Miami needs a win after getting rightfully dragged all week thanks to an abysmal end-of-game non-kneeldown last week, but I don’t think they’re getting one here.
Forde: North Carolina. Miami is an emotional curiosity here. Are the Hurricanes embarrassed and angry and highly motivated to atone for that disaster against Georgia Tech? Or are they still in shock from giving that game away and freshly doubting their coaching leadership? Given Mario Cristobal’s inability to prevent last season from going off the rails, I have my doubts about whether The U is ready to play a quality opponent on the road. Drake Maye had his best game of the season last week and may be ready to roll through the rest of the schedule.
UCLA vs. Oregon State (-4)
Johnson: UCLA. I just think UCLA’s defense is going to give them enough to win the game here. DJ Uiagalelei has certainly improved from last season, but he does still leave a lot to be desired against some opponents. I think the Bruins are such an opponent.
Forde: Oregon State. I am extremely impressed by the work of new UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who has the Bruins giving up 150 fewer yards per game this year than last. But I began the season with conviction that Oregon State could win the Pac-12 and I’m not ready to abandon that conviction just yet. The fun is just beginning in the Pac-12, and the Beavers could be in the championship game mix all the way through November.
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