A massive Week 6 has plenty of intrigue with its top line games in what could actually end up being a Playoff eliminator for Alabama, and a telling sign of where Georgia, LSU and the Red River winner really are headed this season.
All lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook. Last week: Forde 2-3, Johnson 3-2. Season: Forde 14-13-1, Johnson 13-14-1.
Texas (-6.5) vs. Oklahoma
Johnson: Texas. I’m just in on Texas. I’ve been fooled before when I thought they were back, and if it happens again then that’s on me. The way this Texas team is constituted up front just feels different. The lines of scrimmage, particularly on the defensive interior, are beefy and formidable. As far as Oklahoma is concerned, I just don’t think they’ve been particularly impressive against the two legitimate teams they’ve faced so far. And while I thought Iowa State’s defense would pose some challenges, their lack of rush on Dillon Gabriel meant the Cyclones were a non-factor. Give me the Longhorns by two scores.
Forde: Texas. The Longhorns are farther along as a program, particularly in the trenches, where they have made big strides in the last couple of years. The Horns' offensive line, which has started every game intact thus far, averages 6'4 1/4," 325 pounds -- not just thick, but tall and thick. The interior of the defensive line is anchored by the monstrosity that is T'Vondre Sweat, checking in at 6'4", 362 pounds. Texas also has the requisite speed and talent on the perimeter, but mostly they have the power to win and cover in what should be a very good Red River battle. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey's expected presence at the game is a cheeky statement about how much that league wants to plant its flag in Dallas.
Pressure Is on Brent Venables for Oklahoma to Beat Texas
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Alabama (-2.5) vs. Texas A&M
Johnson: Texas A&M. I think the Aggies have more weapons and better weapons on offense. Both defenses are legitimately good, but Alabama’s win in this game in my opinion boils down to a positive game flow that doesn’t force the Crimson Tide into too many obvious passing situations. I’m just not sure Bama will actually be able to do that in the end. A&M finishes what they started last season when they got near the goal line and failed to finish things off.
Forde: Alabama. SEC Playoff Elimination Season begins with this game in College Station and will continue for the next few weeks with a series of matchups. The Tide has gotten a bit better since its existential quarterback angst against Texas and South Florida, and it simply feels unwise to buy into a scenario in which Nick Saban is eliminated from playoff contention on Oct. 7. Far easier to see Jimbo Fisher in that position.
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LSU (-6.5) vs. Missouri
Johnson: Missouri. I’m mainly taking the Columbia Tigers because if you give me points with this offense against that Baton Rouge Tigers defense, I’m salivating. LSU has big problems on that side of the ball, and Mizzou is more than just feisty this season.
Forde: LSU. Jayden Daniels is the most dynamic player in the SEC, and I don't think Missouri has the means to slow him down. That said, I do like the potential for Mizzou star wideout Luther Burden III to have a big day against the flammable secondary of the Tigers (Bayou version). In other words: this feels like a shootout. One in which the Tigers (Midwest version) cannot quite keep pace.
Maryland vs, Ohio State (-19.5)
Johnson: Maryland. It is indeed a big ol’ number, and the backdoor possibility is why I like Maryland in the game. The Terps have enough offense to hang around here, though I believe Ohio State’s defense has improved by leaps and bounds. The injury to Marvin Harrison Jr., though a slight one, does also not enthuse me about Ohio State’s explosive ability in the pass game despite Emeka Egbuka’s presence. Closer than the experts think, but the Buckeyes win comfortably.
Forde: Maryland. The Big Ten's No. 2 passing attack (Maryland) against the Big Ten's No. 2 pass defense (Ohio State) provides an interesting strength-on-strength matchup. Taulia Tagovailoa is a baller who has gotten hit less often so far this season, keeping him healthier. This one should stay competitive until late and result in an easy cover (but not a victory) for the Terrapins
Kentucky vs. Georgia (-14.5)
Johnson: Kentucky. The Cats always played these Dawgs in a rock-fighty style game. I expect that to happen again here, and because of the number and the hook, I’ll take Kentucky to cover. Win? I’m not so sure.
Forde: Kentucky. The Wildcats can run the ball with new star Ray Davis. The Bulldogs cannot stop the run like they did the previous few seasons. That’s enough for Kentucky to eat the clock, move the ball, score some points and keep it tense between the hedges. Ultimately, Brock Bowers will not let Georgia lose to Kentucky, a team it has beaten the past 13 straight years. But this is by no means a red-and-black walkover.
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