Week 4 of the college football season has given us plenty to get excited about.
Among the primetime games scheduled for Saturday, a number of conference matchups should have the nation’s intrigue. No. 3 Ohio State vs. Wisconsin, Kansas State vs. No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 23 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Arkansas may be the highlights, but they aren’t the main attraction.
Not for bettors, at least, and not when Iowa and Rutgers are on FS1 at 7 p.m. ET live from New Jersey.
That’s right, two of the worst offenses in the country has already attracted a ton of action. Of the 6000 (and counting) bets tracked by Action Network on Iowa-Rutgers, 88 percent of bets placed on the point total have Under 34.5 along with 85 percent of the money. Another 68 percent of bets on the spread have Rutgers (+7.5) with 63 percent of the money.
Meanwhile, Iowa is scoring just 13.7 points per game and has a team total points line of 20.5 at Tipico Sportsbook.
This is Puntmageddon on national television and we cannot wait. The Hawkeyes have punted 23 times in three games this season. Rutgers has punted 12 times over the same span.
It’s enough to make you wonder: just how many punts will take place in Piscataway this weekend? We checked with oddsmakers at Tipico to find out where the punt total line would be set. While not an official offering, Tipico told BetFTW the line is set at 9.5 combined punts with the over as a slight favorite at -120.
Big Ten football!
Let’s check out some other trends around the sport as Week 4 kicks off.
Iowa-Rutgers leftovers
A few more things to keep in mind before you go running to open your apps and drop a few bets on this masterclass of kicking:
There is no way the NCAA record for punts in a game is in jeopardy. Why do we feel so confident with that declaration? Because the all-time record is 77 (SEVENTY-SEVEN) between Texas Tech and Centenary in 1939. A game that saw zero points scored and 13 records set.
Rutgers has failed to score 17 points in 9 of its last 13 games vs FBS opposition…
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) September 21, 2022
I am kind of gobsmacked by a total of 34.5. It is definitely deserved for this game, but it's just so low that I am seriously considering picking "more scoring" in Brian Ferentz vs. Rutgers' backup QBs in the year of our lord 2022. What a scene. https://t.co/Hmcc2t2JNv
— Alex Kirshner (@alex_kirshner) September 21, 2022
Iowa is 38-27 in those 65 games in which fewer than 34 total points were scored
— Matt Brown (@MattBrownCFB) September 22, 2022
16 CFB teams remain perfect against the spread.....including South Alabama!?
Any team can win a game. Only great teams can cover.
As we enter Week 4, only 16 teams remain great and there are some pretty surprising names on the list.
3-0 ATS teams in CFB with cover margin:
Kansas +23 ppg
South Alabama +20.7
Arkansas St +15
UNLV +14.3
Oregon St +14
Syracuse +13.8
Tulane +13.5
USC +13.2
Penn St +11.7
Texas +10.7
East Carolina 7.7
Minnesota +9
Southern Miss +9
Kentucky +8.7
Washington +8.3
Tennessee +7.5— Brad Powers (@BradPowers7) September 20, 2022
Southern Alabama? Syracuse? East Carolina? Tulane!? Southern Miss!? Hang on a second now. Those last two teams are playing each other on Saturday. What are bettors to do?
Tulane (-13) gets the homefield advantage after a massive upset at Kansas State last week, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to abandon the Golden Eagles. Action Network has tracked more than 2,000 bets on this game. Tulane has the public backing on the spread with 59 percent of all bets, but Souther Miss has 71 percent of the money wagered. Pay attention to the late action coming in here.
Of course, we couldn’t pass up an opportunity to talk about Kansas’ miraculous start to the season. Not only did the Jayhawks (-7.5 vs. Duke) just sell out their home stadium for only the second time in more than a decade—this time it’s likely that the majority of ticket-buyers are fans of the home team.
Hello this is Kansas Football and we‘d like to make an announcement…
🚨 DAVID BOOTH KANSAS MEMORIAL STADIUM IS OFFICIALLY SOLD OUT ON SATURDAY 🚨 pic.twitter.com/0vpwm5Hez0
— Kansas Football (@KU_Football) September 22, 2022
KU is a favorite over a fellow Power 5 team for the first time since November, 2009. At Action Network, 51 percent of all bets against the spread are on Kansas as well as 62 percent of the money wagered.
The pressure is on in Lawrence.
But there’s one team that remains perfect ATS more than deserving of a deeper dive and that is…..
Oregon State!!!!
The Beavers have covered as two-point favorites against Boise State, one-point underdogs against Fresno State and as 17.5-point favorites against Montana State.
None of those teams carry the pedigree of No. 7 USC and its Heisman candidate QB Caleb Williams. The Trojans are seven-point favorites at Oregon State this weekend, but that doesn’t really seem to be scaring off bettors. At all.
In fact, a Beavers win is already getting heavy backing. While USC (-280 ML) is getting 85 percent of the moneyline bets, Oregon State (+225) is getting 98 percent of the money, per Action Network. The sharps clearly believe they’ve found an edge here.
Interesting nugget pointed out on the @BetTheBoardPod about Saturday's USC/Oregon St game…
Jonathan Smith's offense at Washington vs Alex Grinch's defense at Wazzu from 2015-17…
2015: Wash 45 #20 Wazzu 10
2016: #5 Wash 45 #23 Wazzu 17
2017: #17 Wash 41 #13 Wazzu 14— Tim Murray (@1TimMurray) September 22, 2022
More money has been wagered on Oregon State to cover the spread (now +6.5) vs. No. 7 USC than any CFB or NFL game so far this week at @CaesarsSports (h/t @TheMaxMeyer).
Book has taken a $110,000 bet on Oregon State, plus several five-figure wagers on the Beavers to cover
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 22, 2022
I wouldn't assume Oregon St is going to close as a "popular dog"
DraftKings latest splits show 91% of the tickets on USC@andrewssports told me this morning that "sharper money" is on the dog but believes public will load up on USC
I'd imagine plenty of folks will lay it w USC https://t.co/LSyrV8uX7G
— Tim Murray (@1TimMurray) September 22, 2022
If the upset does happen—which would mean another OSU cover—that might be it for the Pac-12 in the College Football Playoff race unless Oregon or Utah can convince the committee to overlook some egregious early losses.
Week 4 should be pretty wild. Strap in.
