Conference championship weekend is still more than a week away, but college football’s Week 13 games still have plenty of College Football Playoff implications with two of the top teams facing off and pretty much everyone else in a must-win situation. If they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, that is.
The latest playoff rankings dropped Tuesday, and while the top-3 teams remained the same as Week 12, Washington moved into the No. 4 spot as Florida State dropped to No. 5.
But the playoff rankings are notably different from each team’s playoff chance per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor algorithm, which still has Florida State with the fourth-best shot at the playoff.
The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.
Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Wednesday.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (11-0)
- Playoff: 84.9 percent
- National championship game: 46.0 percent
- Win championship: 23.5 percent
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
- Playoff: 77.2 percent
- National championship game: 45.0 percent
- Win championship: 25.7 percent
3. Michigan Wolverines (11-0)
- Playoff: 61.9 percent
- National championship game: 34.9 percent
- Win championship: 19.8 percent
4. Florida State (11-0)
- Playoff: 56.4 percent
- National championship game: 22.8 percent
- Win championship: 9.4 percent
It should come as a surprise to no one that Georgia’s playoff chances continue creeping toward 100 percent as the Bulldogs have looked stronger with each game. They’re all but a lock for the playoff at this point, and it’s looking like the only thing that could throw their chances — and the playoff picture as a whole — into total chaos is a loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game.
We’re not there quite yet, of course, but whether you’re rooting for Georgia, another contender or a bubble team not named Alabama, you absolutely do not want a one-loss SEC champ Crimson Tide team in the mix.
With Michigan and Ohio State facing off this weekend, obviously one team will be dealt its first loss. It seems extremely unlikely that one conference will get two teams in this year with so many contenders, but with both teams have a greater than 60 percent chance to make the field going into Week 13, perhaps it’s possible.
For that to happen, the Michigan-Ohio State game would have to be very close with both teams looking exceptional — plus probably a Florida State loss, a Washington Pac-12 championship and an absolute disaster in the Big 12. However, it certainly seems more likely we get four teams from four different conferences with at least three of them being undefeated.
Florida State without Jordan Travis is a huge question mark. But if it can manage to beat Florida this weekend and still win the ACC championship game the following week against Louisville, then there will probably only be one playoff spot up for grabs — assuming Georgia wins the SEC and the winner of Michigan-Ohio State wins the Big Ten.
Here's a look at the remaining teams with a greater than zero chance to make the College Football Playoff:
5. Oregon Ducks (10-1)
- Playoff: 49.8 percent
- National championship game: 24.1 percent
- Win championship: 11.1 percent
6. Washington Huskies (11-0)
- Playoff: 36.9 percent
- National championship game: 12.3 percent
- Win championship: 3.6 percent
While the Huskies are undefeated and the Ducks’ only loss is to them, since that game, Oregon has looked like the stronger team. But Washington had the tougher schedule and currently is No. 1 in terms of strength of record with wins over four teams ranked at the time.
Should the Huskies win the Pac-12 championship, the eye test likely would be the only factor keeping them out of the playoff, but it’d be so hard for the committee to ignore an undefeated Power Five conference champion with a strong schedule. But if the Ducks emerge as conference champs, that one loss won’t look so bad, and they’ll likely return to the playoff for the first time since the format debuted in the 2014-15 season.
7. Texas Longhorns (10-1)
- Playoff: 19.3 percent
- National championship game: 8.1 percent
- Win championship: 3.3 percent
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1)
- Playoff: 13.3 percent
- National championship game: 6.9 percent
- Win championship: 3.6 percent
9. Louisville Cardinals (10-1)
- Playoff: 0.4 percent
- National championship game: 0.1 percent
- Win championship: 0.0 percent
Auburn is technically the No. 10 team on this list with a zero percent chance across the board.
