College football is weird this season. It’s always weird in the fun, hilarious and totally absurd ways.
But when it comes to the College Football Playoff and projecting which teams will make the cut, it feels like there are more potential foursome combinations than usual as we approach the midway point in the regular season. Nothing feels like a sure thing.
Going into last week’s games, there were seven teams with at least a 30 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor algorithm.
Going into Saturday’s Week 6 games, there are only six. And there’s a new group of four at the top with the best playoff chances.
Ohio State is still at the top with a 54.4 percent chance to make the playoff, which is down slightly from last week’s 60.3 percent. But the Buckeyes were off last week, so that dip is more about what else is happening in college football.
Oklahoma and Texas are still right there with Ohio State, but for the first time this season, Georgia is not among the Playoff Predictor’s top-4 teams with the best shots at the playoff. Oregon swooped in and replaced the defending national champions — who struggled to put away a dysfunctional Auburn team in Week 5 — but the Bulldogs still aren’t far behind.
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The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.
Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Thursday.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)
- Playoff: 54.4 percent
- National championship game: 32.5 percent
- Win championship: 18.5 percent
2. Oklahoma Sooners (5-0)
- Playoff: 52.3 percent
- National championship game: 30.1 percent
- Win championship: 16.7 percent
3. Texas Longhorns (5-0)
- Playoff: 50.2 percent
- National championship game: 27.6 percent
- Win championship: 14.5 percent
4. Oregon Ducks (5-0)
- Playoff: 39.9 percent
- National championship game: 19.7 percent
- Win championship: 9.3 percent
Oklahoma and Texas both have been among the four teams with the best playoff chances since Week 4. While Oklahoma’s chance has held fairly steady since then, Texas’ chance has increased in a big way throughout the season, up from 34.3 percent in Week 4 and 28.3 percent in Week 0.
But ahead of Week 6, it’s interesting that the Sooners’ and Longhorns’ playoff chances are both higher than 50 percent and have just a 2.1 percent difference. (That’s in addition to the uniqueness of having two Big 12 teams consistently among the top four on this list.)
The Big 12’s last Red River Rivalry is set for Saturday in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl, so is it possible their playoff chances are so high and nearly equal because they haven’t played each other yet? Yeah, it’s possible.
But we have a different theory for how this algorithm is analyzing the season.
If we look at their respective likelihoods of winning the Big 12 championship game, Oklahoma is at 51.9 percent, and Texas is at 40.8 percent. That leaves Kansas State at 5.6 percent as the only other team with at least a one percent chance to win the conference. So basically, the formula is all but guaranteeing an Oklahoma-Texas rematch in the conference title game.
Comparing their chances of winning out the rest of the season — including conference title games, when applicable — the Sooners are at 22.8 percent, and the Longhorns are at 14.2 percent.
So when you consider both teams’ respective likelihoods of making the playoff, winning the Big 12 and winning out before bowl season, a clear potential playoff scenario stands out, as long as there are no blowout losses:
- Oklahoma and Texas rematch in the conference championship game
- The loser in Week 6 wins the Big 12 title game, leaving each team with one loss
Couple that with some chaos from other conferences, and the Big 12 could have two teams with very appealing playoff resumes — though Texas currently has an advantage in strength of record and schedule.
Of course, plenty of things could upend this potential playoff scenario. But based on ESPN’s Playoff Predictor and FPI, it certainly seems like this is the most likely playoff path for both Oklahoma and Texas.
Here's a look at the remaining teams in the top 10 for best College Football Playoff chances:
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
- Playoff: 32.1 percent
- National championship game: 16.0 percent
- Win championship: 8.0 percent
6. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0)
- Playoff: 30.5 percent
- National championship game: 14.3 percent
- Win championship: 6.8 percent
7. Florida State (4-0)
- Playoff: 27.5 percent
- National championship game: 11.2 percent
- Win championship: 4.7 percent
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1)
- Playoff: 25.9 percent
- National championship game: 14.0 percent
- Win championship: 7.3 percent
9. Washington Huskies (5-0)
- Playoff: 21.2 percent
- National championship game: 8.8 percent
- Win championship: 3.4 percent
10. Michigan Wolverines (5-0)
- Playoff: 20.7 percent
- National championship game: 9.6 percent
- Win championship: 4.5 percent
As the only team on this list with a loss, Alabama jumps up a spot to No. 8, and its playoff chance got a small boost too, up from 21 percent last week.
Other notable chances include Michigan returning to the teams with the top-10 playoff chances. The Wolverines bumped USC out of the top 10 — the Trojans are still No. 11 with a 13.8 percent chance, down about five points from last week — as they’re slightly back in the mix.
Michigan was a prominent contender in Week 0 with a fifth-best 25.5 percent chance to make the playoff, but it dropped to No. 10 by Week 3 with a 14.7 percent chance and were outside the top 10 by Week 4.
