Despite a seemingly mundane slate of games going into Week 2 of college football, Saturday’s matchups did not disappoint — unless, of course, you’re a Notre Dame fan. Or a Texas A&M fan. Or a Baylor, Houston or Pitt fan. (Alabama fans are probably in here too, despite beating Texas.)
Week 2 delivered some unexpected upsets and thrilling nail-biters, and as a result, the teams with the top chances to make the College Football Playoff, come December, look a bit different than previous weeks. In fact, compared with last week’s best chances, four of the top-10 teams have been replaced — though the top-4 teams, of course, remained the same, but even their chances have since been adjusted.
So going into Week 3, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Tuesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0)
- Playoff: 83.9 percent
- National championship game: 56.7 percent
- Win championship: 34.4 percent
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0)
- Playoff: 79.9 percent
- National championship game: 48.9 percent
- Win championship: 26.1 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs (2-0)
- Playoff: 69.9 percent
- National championship game: 40.8 percent
- Win championship: 21.4 percent
4. Clemson Tigers (2-0)
- Playoff: 46.0 percent
- National championship game: 17.5 percent
- Win championship: 6.4 percent
Narrowly escaping a monumental upset against Texas, Alabama prevailed with a one-point win, but that slim margin of victory didn’t have much of an impact on the Crimson Tide’s playoff, national championship game or title chances compared with Week 2. Their chances in the latter two categories dipped by less than a percentage point, while their shot at making the playoff itself actually went up a touch. Interesting, following a game where Alabama was beating itself as much as the Longhorns.
This throw by CJ Stroud last night was something else 👀 pic.twitter.com/zXTL8TOOIi
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 4, 2022
Ohio State rocked Arkansas State in Week 2 with a 33-point win, and although the Buckeyes’ chances of making the playoff barely fell by 0.4 percent, their chances in the other two categories improved. Ohio State’s chance to make the national championship game is up from 44.2 percent in Week 2, while it’s chance to win it all is up from 22.0 percent. It’s obviously still very early in the season, but that slight shift in numbers suggests faith in the Buckeyes advancing, should they make the final four.
First of many for @MykelWilliams_ 😤#GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/54abhGIFlx
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) September 10, 2022
What’s particularly interesting about Georgia’s and Clemson’s playoff and championship chances is that, despite both teams easily topping inferior opponents, the Bulldogs’ and Tigers’ chances in all three categories fell since last week — and not by fractions of a percentage point either.
Georgia’s playoff chances dropped nearly 7 percent since Week 2, while Clemson’s is down a whopping 15.5 percent, and the remaining two categories follow suit, give or take. Obviously, both teams are still heavily favored to make the playoff compared with the rest of the field — it will surely take a monstrous upset for them to change dramatically — but between these changes and the addition of so many new teams among the top-10 on this list, perhaps there’s more wiggle room than originally expected at the top.
Here’s a look at the rest of the teams with the top-10 best College Football Playoff chances in Week 3
5. Michigan Wolverines (2-0)
- Playoff: 25.5 percent
- National championship game: 9.0 percent
- Win championship: 3.1 percent
6. USC Trojans (2-0)
- Playoff: 19.7 percent
- National championship game: 5.4 percent
- Win championship: 1.8 percent
7. Texas Longhorns (1-1)
- Playoff: 18.3 percent
- National championship game: 6.7 percent
- Win championship: 2.5 percent
8. Tennessee Volunteers (2-0)
- Playoff: 10.9 percent
- National championship game: 3.4 percent
- Win championship: 1.0 percent
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0)
- Playoff: 6.1 percent
- National championship game: 1.5 percent
- Win championship: 0.4 percent
10. Mississippi State (2-0)
- Playoff: 6.0 percent
- National championship game: 1.7 percent
- Win championship: 0.4 percent
Last week on this top-10 list were Notre Dame, Miami, Baylor and Oklahoma. Baylor lost against ranked BYU on the road, but Notre Dame’s failure at home against Marshall was bad. And either way, it’s not surprising the Fighting Irish and Bears are no longer among the teams with the best playoff chances. As far as Oklahoma and Miami, other teams must have impressed the Playoff Predictor algorithm more in Week 2.
Replacing those four on this list are USC, Tennessee, Penn State and Mississippi State.
USC definitely deserves to be in this conversation after smoothly beating Stanford in Week 2, and honestly, we’re surprised it wasn’t among the top-10 before — meaning previously, its playoff chance was no higher than 5.7 percent. Against the Cardinal, quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Caleb Williams shined, completing 20-of-27 passes for 341 yards and four touchdowns, and it was a big-play kind of game. The Trojans have a clear path to a strong playoff resume, but they may need help in the form of chaos elsewhere to get there.
Caleb Williams through 2 games in 2022:
✌️ 39/49
✌️ 590 yards
✌️ 6 TDs
✌️ 0 INTs
No. 1 player in the @247SportsPortal for a reason 🔥pic.twitter.com/aRilDzAwJs
— 247Sports (@247Sports) September 13, 2022
As for the other three newcomers on this list, perhaps ESPN’s algorithm knows something we don’t. Is Penn State really the next-best team behind Ohio State and Michigan to contend for the Big Ten East and the conference title? Could Tennessee really give Georgia a run for its money? Is the same true for Mississippi State against a stacked SEC West group?
It’s too early to tell, obviously, but we’re guessing that at least one, maybe two, of the new teams on here won’t be back next week among the top-10 teams with the best College Football Playoff chances.
