Last week when we looked at the top college football teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, we had four teams from four different conferences. And an SEC team wasn’t among them.
Now headed into Week 9 of the season, the four teams with the best chances still don’t include an SEC rep, but there are two Big Ten teams.
Ohio State swapped spots with Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes currently have the best chance to make the College Football Playoff at 73.3 percent, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor algorithm. They’re followed by Oklahoma, Florida State and Michigan — the newest team to the top four, replacing Washington in that No. 4 spot.
The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.
Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Thursday.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0)
- Playoff: 73.3 percent
- National championship game: 43.6 percent
- Win championship: 25.0 percent
2. Oklahoma Sooners (7-0)
- Playoff: 63.8 percent
- National championship game: 33.0 percent
- Win championship: 16.5 percent
3. Florida State (7-0)
- Playoff: 59.4 percent
- National championship game: 26.5 percent
- Win championship: 11.7 percent
4. Michigan Wolverines (8-0)
- Playoff: 46.2 percent
- National championship game: 26.4 percent
- Win championship: 14.4 percent
One of the notable things about the four teams with the current best playoff chances is Ohio State. Not the Buckeyes’ return to the No. 1 spot but by how much they jumped. Compared with last week before Ohio State topped Penn State, the team had a 55.6 percent chance to make the playoff, and this week, that percentage saw a nearly 20 percent boost.
Also notable is Michigan, which got a big increase in playoff likelihood. Ahead of the Wolverines’ blowout win over Michigan State in Week 8, they were No. 6 on this list but with just a 31.5 percent chance to make the playoff. Now at 46.2 percent, it’s very possible the Big Ten gets two teams in.
So far this season, we’ve seen the Big 12 have two teams among the Playoff Predictor’s top four, but the Big Ten has a path somewhat similar to more than one playoff team. Ohio State has a 33.4 percent chance to win out and a 54.2 percent chance to win the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN’s FPI. Michigan, meanwhile, has a 21.5 percent chance to win out and a 31.9 percent chance to win the conference.
You could create several playoff scenarios with that information, but an obvious one is that both teams enter the Michigan-Ohio State game undefeated, and whoever wins that also wins the Big Ten championship game for an easy playoff bid. And, with so much parity and vulnerability among some of the top teams this year, if there’s a multi-loss conference champion or no obvious fourth team, the playoff committee could easily look to the one-loss loser of the Michigan-Ohio State game.
As for the rest of the top-4 teams here, Florida State saw a sizable increase as well, up from 43.0 percent after comfortably beating Duke in Week 8, while Oklahoma’s chances decreased a tad, down from 70.1 percent (and the top spot).
Here’s a look at the remaining teams in the top 10 for best College Football Playoff chances:
5. Georgia Bulldogs (7-0)
- Playoff: 30.9 percent
- National championship game: 14.3 percent
- Win championship: 7.0 percent
6. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
- Playoff: 30.1 percent
- National championship game: 15.2 percent
- Win championship: 7.5 percent
7. Texas Longhorns (6-1)
- Playoff: 24.8 percent
- National championship game: 12.0 percent
- Win championship: 5.7 percent
8. Washington Huskies (7-0)
- Playoff: 23.8 percent
- National championship game: 8.4 percent
- Win championship: 2.7 percent
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1)
- Playoff: 16.8 percent
- National championship game: 8.5 percent
- Win championship: 4.3 percent
10. Oregon Ducks (6-1)
- Playoff: 13.6 percent
- National championship game: 5.7 percent
- Win championship: 2.5 percent
After losing to Ohio State, Penn State’s playoff chances fell in a big way, down from 34.4 percent last week and the No. 5 spot on this list. And don’t look now, but Alabama’s chances are slowly on the rise.
