College Football Playoff Rankings: Will The Mountain West Land In The First Top 25?
Can Air Force or Fresno State establish a foothold in the race to a New Year’s Six bowl game?
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Two teams are in contention. How much respect will they receive?
College football season has reached November’s doorstep and, to this point in the calendar year, the Mountain West has not disappointed.
While the field of expected and surprise contenders thinned over the last couple of weeks, the two teams at the top of the conference standings, the Air Force Falcons and Fresno State Bulldogs, might have done enough to merit an appearance on the season’s first College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, which will be revealed on Tuesday.
Here’s how the two contenders stack up:
Air Force Falcons (8-0)
SP+ rank: 30 | FEI rank (through Week 9): 23 | Sagarin rank: 39 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 123/121
Best three wins: vs. Wyoming (5-3), at San Jose State (4-5), at Navy (3-4)
Best three opponent wins: Wyoming over Texas Tech (3-5) at home, San Diego State over Ohio (6-3) at home, Colorado State over Boise State (4-4) at home
The case for the Falcons: The Falcons are one of eight undefeated FBS teams left standing and, more importantly, one of just three 8-0 teams among the Group of 5. They’ve also proven in the last few weeks that they can push back when pushed, rallying to beat Wyoming at home before surviving back-to-back road challenges against rivals Navy and Colorado State.
The case against the Falcons: A soft schedule to date might limit the Falcons’ ceiling to start, as that is the same obstacle that hinders most G5 aspirants in the debut rankings. Among Air Force’s eight victories so far, only 5-3 Wyoming currently has a winning record, though they’ll have the chance to bolster that in November with back-to-back clashes against UNLV and Boise State to close the regular season.
Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1)
SP+ rank: 47 | FEI rank (through Week 9): 37 | Sagarin rank: 59 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 110/128
Best three wins: vs. UNLV (6-2), at Utah State (3-5), at Purdue (2-6)
Best three opponent wins: Purdue over Virginia Tech (4-4) on the road, Arizona State over Washington State (4-4) at home, UNLV over UTEP (3-6) on the road
The case for the Bulldogs: Fresno State has battled injuries all year long, but Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs are still in the hunt thanks to an offense that rarely beats itself and an opportunistic defense that is probably the best in the Mountain West outside of Colorado Springs. Like Air Force, they’ve also mostly taken care of the business on the road with three wins away from Valley Children’s Stadium, one of 12 Group of 5 teams with at least three road victories through Week 9.
The case against the Bulldogs: Unlike Air Force, Fresno State lost to Wyoming for their lone blemish to date. Also unlike Air Force, the Bulldogs have won more often than not but haven’t always done so convincingly. While the College Football Playoff committee doesn’t take margin of victory into explicit account, it may be hard to ignore that Fresno State is now 4-1 in games decided by eight or fewer points, part of an overall schedule through which, at present, UNLV is the team’s lone victory over an opponent with a current winning record.
How do these Mountain West teams stack up against everyone else in the hunt? Read on to learn more.
