Conference realignment is (still) here.
Conference realignment is here, and for the Mountain West, it’s getting closer to home. It first reared is ugly head in the fall of 2021. Now just as things started to settle down, it has stuck again. PAC-12 powerhouses, UCLA and USC have announced their intentions to leave the PAC-12 for the Big 10.
The Mountain West got out of the last round of realignment unscathed. Texas and Oklahoma left the Big 12 for the SEC. They were replaced by BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. The American Athletic Conference, losing three of its top teams, added UAB, FAU, UNC Charlotte, North Texas, Rice, and UTSA and the effects were all downstream from there, getting further and further away from the Mountain West. Now, another monumental shift in the college athletics landscape is here and it’s happening right in the Mountain West’s backyard.
Lot of folks wishcasting about Mountain West schools who might be on the move, but just keep in mind it's probably not about splitting the financial pie any more than is absolutely necessary. The reactionary moves will probably revolve around consolidating among the "haves".
— Mountain West Wire (@MWCwire) June 30, 2022
The Pac-12 famously survived with 10 teams for a long time. Other than the Ivy League, the Pac-10 at the time, had the longest-tenured lineup of schools. But it’s clear the Pac-12 will move to replace UCLA and USC, and it’s even possible that the conference will take this opportunity to try to get to 14 or even 16 members. So where will those teams come from? Some Mountain West fans are getting their hopes up that the Mountain West could provide some of those teams. Boise State and San Diego State, in particular, have generated a fair amount of meaningless online chatter.
The first thing to understand is that any Mountain West school will be a downgrade in athletics and/or academics and/or revue. If the PAC-12 wants to expand and is willing to significantly lower its admission standards, the Mountain West might not be a bad place to start. It would be a goldmine of overly eager schools willing to join the PAC-12 and never look back. It’s not likely to happen, though.
The Pac-12 has very high standards for admission. For starters, those schools are, without much exception, generally public schools. Private non-religious institutions can fit in, although one of only two private schools in the conference is on the way out, leaving Stanford University the sole private institution. Furthermore, all PAC-12 schools are, by requirement, classified as R1 institutions by the Carnegie Classifications of Institutions of Higher Education, and nine of the 12 current schools are members of the Association of American Universities.
Pac-12 schools play all major sports. This, of course, includes the “revenue sports” such as football and basketball, but extends to baseball and golf. Colorado is the only team in the conference without a baseball team. The conference itself sponsors 24 sports and the average team in the conference fields about 8 men’s sports and 11 women’s sports.
Pac-12 schools are also very deep-pocketed. The only school in the PAC-12 with an endowment under a billion dollars is Oregon State. The Beavers’ meager $819 million endowments would be the largest in the Mountain West by far. The average endowment is about $5.5 billion. The athletic programs in the Pac-12 are consistently among the nation’s top earners.
Other than reverting back to the PAC-10, the PAC-12 has two options. It can change its standards for admission or it can get very creative. That won’t be easy. Any candidate that is well-suited in one respect, is often equally ill-suited in others. Kansas, Iowa State, and West Virginia seem to fit in on the athletic and research categories but are far from the well-established California/Pacific Northwest/Four Corners regions the PAC-12 currently operates in. San Diego State and Fresno would be the perfect geographic replacement for the Pac-12 maintaining a southern California footprint while keeping the balance of four California teams, but both schools are unqualified in terms of research, academics, revenue, and most likely athletics too. Colorado State and Utah State, both from the four corners region, match the geographic and research requirements but are not up to par with the impressive Pac-12 athletic departments.
Texas Tech may be the best fit. The school is a public R1 institution, it has an impressive record in both football and basketball, and while Lubbock is a bit out of the PAC-12’s wheelhouse, it would extend the conference’s footprint into the Lone Star State. However, with the newly formed Big 12, the Red Raiders might not be satisfied with remaining in a weakened yet steady conference rather than roll the dice on a conference with higher upside but on the brink of falling apart.
Simply, the perfect fit doesn’t exist. Until now, the top schools in the west were already in the PAC-12. The Conference of Champions had its pick. Any school that fit the rigorous academic and athletic standards of the PAC-12 was already in the PAC-12.
On the surface, it seems the Mountain West will once again avoid the fray. While this round of realignment certainly hits closer to home, the initial moves should miss the conference entirely, although that may not be true of the aftershocks.
One major obstacle is in the way of any Mountain West team joining the PAC-12. It’s the PAC-12. This isn’t the Big 12 or some other mid-tier power conference. It’s the Conference of Champions. Even without UCLA and USC, a conference with the prestige of the PAC-12 has no business entertaining membership applications from Mountain West schools. The PAC-12 might not even have to entertain membership applications from any G5 schools. So the Mountain West is safe for now, although the moves by the PAC-12 in the next few weeks could seriously jeopardize the makeup of the Mountain West.
For the PAC-12, changing the academic and research standards seems like the obvious choice to an outsider sports fan, but there is a reason it hasn’t been done yet. It’s a crucial part of the brand to be prestigious in every sense. There is a certain allure to exclusivity, and the PAC-12 thrives on it. They are not alone however. The new home of the PAC-12 escapees, the Big 10, is even more selective. The Big 10 is the only conference to consist entirely of AAU members with R1 designations. To say academics doesn’t matter in college sports would be very untrue. The top teams and conferences in the county take great pride in being well balanced, and that status doesn’t come cheap. Schools and conferences have been known to be ruthlessly protective of their brands and reputations.
If the PAC-12 were to expand to allow private religious schools and schools with lower research designations, it could risk off-putting some of the remaining schools. Stanford and Cal, for example, are two of the premier academic and research universities in the world. Academically, Stanford is unofficially known as one of the “Ivy Plus” schools along with schools like MIT, Caltech, the University of Chicago, and Northwestern. On the other hand, if the PAC-12 were to expand to allow prestigious public universities with inferior athletic programs, the conference could risk upsetting the parity within the league and could produce a less interesting and entertaining product. To fans, lowering the PAC-12’s admission standards might sound like an enticing opportunity for some Mountain West schools, but its not likely to happen, and even if the PAC-12 made some exceptions, it probably wouldn’t be for Mountain West schools.
The most likely way for the Mountain West to get pulled into the drama is if the PAC-12 pulls teams from the new Big 12 to survive. This could certainly ignite a violent round of conference realignment reaching every level of the sport. Outside of the elite schools in the Mountain West, great teams remain in the G5 level, such as App State, Army, Marshall, Memphis, Navy, NIU, SMU, and many others. All these teams are insecure about their future and any major realignment would beckon the involvement of the Mountain West, the American, and other G5 conferences.
The PAC-12 attempting to raid the Big 12 might not be that unlikely. Back in 2010, what was then the PAC-10 considered adding six schools to become a 16 team league. The aforementioned Texas Tech was one of those six schools, as was Colorado, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. For obvious reasons, Colorado can be ruled out of future expansion, as can Texas and Oklahoma assuming they are happy in the SEC. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State remain in a somewhat interesting situation however.
The Big 12 is weakened, and although it seems to have solidified its future for the time being, it is still in a fragile state. If the PAC-12 decides to, it could possibly persuade Big 12 schools to jump ship and join the PAC-12. If that happens, the Big 12 has already shown interest in Boise State and San Diego State and in the wake of another exodus would probably rely on those schools to be a lifeline.
Then what would become of the Mountain West? As the Big 12 and PAC-12 have learned, replacing two top teams in the conference is extremely difficult. So, the first and best option is to prevent Boise State, San Diego State, or any other school from leaving. The conference could try to entice any schools tempted to leave by expanding. Large conferences are becoming the new standard, after all. The conference could prey on the new and insecure AAC by recruiting SMU, Memphis, and/or Wichita State. The conference could finally rescue Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s from nonchalantly dominating the WCC every year. The conference could even dive into Texas or California and take a bet on one of the many smaller schools in one of those states. If the Mountain West is threatened, that might be enough. It also might not be. If the Mountain West isn’t careful, it could be left with the daunting task of replacing some of its top programs. If top teams in the Mountain West do leave, replacing them quickly will be crucial. Conference realignment is an eat or be eaten situation. It moves fast and it can destroy schools and conferences that aren’t prepared.
It is simply impossible to predict the major effects of this move by UCLA and USC and even though Mountain West isn’t in immediate danger, it shouldn’t get too comfortable either. This whole thing might blow over with minimal damage and without affecting the Mountain West, but the more realignment rages on, the broader the impact will get.
So, once again the Mountain West needs to be vigilante and aware. As of now, no action is needed for the survival of the conference but a more proactive approach could become necessary. If the Big 12 loses any teams, such as Texas Tech or Oklahoma State, it should be assumed that the the Mountain West is in danger.
Until expansion is inevitable, the Mountain West should be making every effort to keep the band together. Boise State and San Diego State, after being left out of the last Big 12 expansion, seem to be the likely suspects to bolt, but now that geographic don’t seem to matter, any number of Mountain West schools could try to find a better fit somewhere else. Air Force could try to find a home that suits its unique profile as a federal service academy. UNLV could try to use its new football stadium and great location as a ticket to a new conference. The list goes on. If the Mountain West misplays its hand, it could find itself disparaged leaving most of its schools homeless. If the Mountain West handles this round of realignment properly, it can avoid being raided, while staying alert for any opportunistic chance to improve, the conference will turn out just fine, or even better.
