We’re halfway through the college football regular season, and the coaching cycle is quiet—too quiet. No coach has been fired yet for performance, which reverses the trend of early axings we’ve seen, including in September the last few years. It has some within the industry predicting that overall this cycle may be one that is more of a whimper than a bang when all the dust settles. We’ll see what teams do coming down the stretch, but with seven weeks to go, here’s where the coaching market stands, according to industry sources.
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Open Jobs
Michigan State, Northwestern: Both Big Ten jobs remain in the early stages of their search processes with questions regarding who exactly will be in charge in the long term at Northwestern abound. That will certainly be a factor that turns off some coaches. As one industry source puts it: “I think there’s a lot of people who will use Northwestern to get a raise.”
Although Pat Fitzgerald’s wrongful termination lawsuit hangs over the athletic department, it’s not expected to affect what the Wildcats can pay the next coach, according to an industry source, and there are many in the donor community that are still loyal to Fitzgerald. Wake Forest’s Dave Clawson and Tulane’s Willie Fritz are the type of coaches who could be a fit as professional leaders who have done more with less at multiple stops. Army’s Jeff Monken may also be an intriguing candidate, as someone whose family is Illinois high school coaching royalty.
Michigan State has a different (and seemingly much more winnable) legal battle with its former coach, Mel Tucker, but the Spartans’ profile is one that has won Rose Bowls and made the playoff in the recent past. Despite the fact that both jobs will get much harder as the Pac-12 schools enter the conference next season, coaches interested in jobs often gravitate to the upside to justify their decisions. Michigan State is also a program that has made it clear it will be competitive from a salary perspective. While a new coach may not get Tucker’s lofty salary number, $7.5 million or more is certainly possible, which would place it around the top 20 highest-paying jobs nationally.
Earlier this month, Sports Illustrated’s possible candidate list included, among others: Duke coach Mike Elko, Kentucky coach Mark Stoops, Kansas coach Lance Leipold, and Marshall coach Charles Huff. Michigan State may desire a sitting Power 5 head coach, but if it strikes out there, Toledo’s Jason Candle is a Group of 5 coach to consider.
Heating up
Houston: The Cougars won on a Hail Mary last Thursday, but Dana Holgorsen’s seat remains hot, according to sources. There’s a chance for him to win his way back to cooler pastures, but he likely needs to go on a run, which would include pulling a significant upset over Texas or Kansas State in the next two weeks. If the Cougars lose those games, they’ll need to take three of four from games against Baylor, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and UCF to make a bowl game.
Boston College: Jeff Hafley entered the season on the hot seat and hasn’t done a ton to cool it yet, either. Games against UConn and Virginia Tech appear winnable, and the Eagles will need to get one more out of: Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Pitt and Miami to get a bowl game, which could get Hafley on the right side of the bubble.
New Mexico: The offense may be incrementally better, but the Lobos remain one of the worst teams in the country. It’s hard to see how they’ll end the season much better than 4–8, and that would be the high-water mark of Danny Gonzalez’s tenure.
Arkansas State: The Red Wolves made a quarterback switch to freshman Jaylen Raynor and experienced immediate results, winning three straight games before rapidly coming back down to earth against a formidable Troy team. This needed to be a clear progress year for Butch Jones, and, as they get into the meat of conference play, they’ll need to find a way to show that against the league’s best.
Rice and Ball State: Each has a new athletic director, which is always a disconcerting sign for a coach who may be on the bubble. The Cardinals are currently one of the worst teams in the country, and the COVID-19 year in 2020 was the only winning record with Mike Neu in charge, but since he’s an alum and a former quarterback with strong ties to key donors, getting rid of Neu would be a risk for new AD Jeff Mitchell. Rice got a huge win against Houston earlier in the season, but Mike Bloomgren will likely need to prove something in conference play and make a bowl. It’s not impossible, but it will be difficult. New AD Tommy McClelland was integral to Vanderbilt’s hire of Clark Lea and a revamp of that program’s entire football infrastructure.
Nevada: If there is a chance for a coach to be fired after only two years in this cycle, it may be at Nevada. Ken Wilson may be 0–12 by season’s end. Despite the fact that Wilson had support from program legend Chris Ault at the time he was hired, he was new to AD Stephanie Rempe, who took over midway through 2022.
UTEP: On the heels of getting beaten soundly in the 100th Battle of I-10, Dana Dimel’s seat is hot. UTEP is a hard place to win, but the high-water mark of his tenure is 7–6 in 2021. He’ll have multiple games that appear to be toss-ups coming down the stretch, but the Miners have only one FBS win this season.
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Industry sources are keeping an eye on …
Michigan: With the NCAA’s announcement Thursday that it is investigating the Wolverines for sign-stealing, this situation just got a lot more complicated. But a Michigan source confirmed Wednesday night, before that announcement, what author John U. Bacon reported earlier this month: the school is preparing to offer its head coach a contract extension that would make him at least the highest paid coach in the Big Ten. (Ohio State head coach Ryan Day will make $10.2 million this season.) In a perfect world, the deal would be done before the stretch run of Michigan’s season begins Nov. 11, when the Wolverines play Penn State.
If he doesn’t sign with deliberate speed, it may signal another dalliance with the NFL. If the Chargers continue to underwhelm, there would be a line a mile long of coaches waiting to replace Brandon Staley considering the opportunity to work with a QB as talented as Justin Herbert. Harbaugh played for the franchise when it was in San Diego and had an early head coaching stop at the University of San Diego. When he signed an extension in early 2022, Harbaugh said he assured Michigan AD Warde Manuel that his most recent flirtation with the league after the 2021 season would be his last.
When asked if he would sign an extension sooner rather than later in early October, Harbaugh said: “Yeah I mean, like anybody, you want to be somewhere where you’re wanted. And when they like what you do and how you do it, they tell you that. Your bosses tell you that, and then that gets reflected in a contract. But bottom line, any of us, right, that’s where we want to be. Somewhere where they like how you do it and what you do.”
Texas A&M: The situation with Jimbo Fisher boils down to this: Yes, the important boosters in College Station have the money to get out of the fully guaranteed (with no offset language) $95 million contract. Firing Fisher would involve an up-front cost of around $24 million within 120 days, according to the terms of his contract, and that doesn’t include what it would cost to fire his coaching staff, pay the buyout of the head coach A&M may be poaching (if that’s what it decides) and then that new coach’s salary, which would be around $8 million per year by the most conservative guess.
The fact that word is beginning to leak that the money’s there means those who would be footing the bill are waiting for an inflection point. If they were really ready now, a logical time to pull the trigger would have been Sunday during the Aggies’ bye week. With South Carolina, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Abilene Christian and LSU remaining on the schedule, would 4–1 be enough to earn Fisher another year?
Boise State: While Andy Avalos is an alum and coming off a 10-win season, what’s apparent is the Broncos’ previously held significant advantage over the rest of the Mountain West has eroded. That may crystalize if the Broncos lose to Wyoming next week. The nonconference schedule did Boise State no favors, but there was a time when they were a team that would play anyone, anytime, anywhere and beat them. Those days seem over.
Virginia: Another potential two-and-done situation to a lesser degree is at UVA, where Tony Elliott’s Cavs have zero wins over FBS teams and may not get one the rest of the season. In particular, the fact that the offense has been struggling does not bode well for him. But what cannot be ignored is the awkwardness of firing Elliott so shortly after he steered the program through the killing of three players last season.
Indiana and Syracuse: These are similar in nature to each other (basketball-centric schools) and similar to A&M in that the buyout situations are cited as inhibitors to making a change, unless there’s an inflection point. Of the two, Indiana seems closer to rock bottom, but Tom Allen’s buyout is about $20 million. It will drop to around $8 million next year, so that could buy him another year, but losing out with the same anemic offense may make it difficult to justify bringing him back no matter the cost.
Cuse is on the doorstep of bowl eligibility, needing only two wins in five games that all appear winnable. The Orange may end up finishing the season with some serious momentum. Back-to-back bowl games would give Dino Babers a story to tell of raising the program’s floor after bottoming out.
Arkansas: The Hogs are salty on defense but have lost five straight against the class of the SEC West. While Sam Pittman has a ton of equity within the program, there is a clause in his contract that allows for his buyout to be slashed in half if his record going back to the start of the 2021 season is under .500, according to a copy of his contract obtained by SI. He needs one win to ensure that would not happen, at 18–15 so far.
Mississippi State: Industry sources point to the terms of the contract combined with MSU’s records as reasons. Zach Arnett’s salary is one of the lowest in all of Power 5 at $3 million, and his four-year contract (the most allowed by state law) would cost only 50% of the remainder (about $4.5 million) to get out from under, and it’s payable over three years. It is, by SEC standards, a bargain if Bulldogs brass were to want to make a move.
Baylor: The Bears are having a down season, but Dave Aranda might not be in too much hot water yet with a contract lasting through 2029 at least $3.8 million per year, according to USA Today. What is highly likely (if the Bears don’t get the offense turned around) is changes on the offensive staff. AD Mack Rhoades told the streaming show 365 Sports:
“Quite frankly, we need to make some changes, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. I believe we’ve got really good staff. I believe we’ve got really good football minds. They didn’t all of a sudden get less smart from 2021. Nobody’s working harder than them and nobody’s more disappointed than them.”
Southern Miss: The Golden Eagles are not very good, but Will Hall may have the equity locally to survive this season. The injury bug has hit the team hard on defense, and a schedule that includes Florida State, Tulane and Mississippi State has done the team no favors this season.
