As the college football regular season ends, the silly season begins and the hiring and firing cycle kicks up in earnest. This year’s November surprise came from Texas A&M when the Aggies fired Jimbo Fisher at an unprecedented cost. Could there be another shocker on the way?
Here’s what we’re hearing from industry sources as the infamous Black Sunday looms.
Open
Texas A&M: Despite the program’s well earned reputation for indiscriminately spending (consider the $76 million it will cost to fire Fisher in the end), all signals from Aggieland hint that they don’t want to reset the coaching market again with Fisher’s replacement. Athletic director Ross Bjork said on the Aggie Fan Zone radio show: “We have to get this contract right. We can’t do what we did before. … We’ve level-set with everybody we’ve talked to and said, ‘Here are the parameters and here is the structure.’”
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That means instead of $100 million guaranteed, candidates can expect something more in line with the market. Around $7 million annually (about 15th nationally, right between Florida State’s Mike Norvell and Florida’s Billy Napier) and heavy incentives would make the contract certainly lucrative, but not anything that’s going to set a record. The fact that Bjork is out front here continues a trend of him being the true conduit which this process is being operated through.
While the search may be clandestine, it isn’t being described by industry sources as a shoot-from-the-hip approach with too many cooks in the kitchen so far. As one source put it: “Maybe they actually do have a plan.”
In his press conference last week Sunday after firing Fisher, Bjork said “It was my decision, my recommendation,” to the president of the school and the Chancellor of the Texas A&M university system. It all helps Bjork preach alignment, which is important to coaches, especially when they’re considering a place with as many stakeholders and as much money as A&M has.
That’s despite the fact that early on, Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell was contacted indirectly in what was described as just “kicking tires,” by a source. It was made clear that Campbell would not be leaving the NFL.
When asked about it in a press conference, Campbell said “I want to do anything I can to help them but coach for them.”
If there’s interest in NFL coaches, it does mean a search that’s wide-ranging. Former A&M defensive coordinator and current Duke head coach Mike Elko is expected to be in the mix for this job, as is Kansas coach Lance Leipold. As far as Duke is concerned, it will be interesting to see just how hard the Blue Devils are willing to fight to retain Elko. Despite the basketball school’s reputation, nothing energizes a campus like a successful football team. Look no further than how Kansas fought to keep Leipold last year, nearly doubling his salary and extending him through 2029.
Fit may be an overused term in coaching searches, but there is one coach in the mix who does address that key need: UTSA’s Jeff Traylor, whom the Aggies spoke with last week.
It should be no surprise to anyone that Traylor’s name is linked here—it seems to always be when a high profile job in the state opens. Sources specifically point out that Traylor would help the Aggies improve relations with the Texas High School Coaches Association. There isn’t a state in the country where relations with high school coaches matters more than Texas, and those around the program admit that Fisher leaned too much on his assistant coaches to do that work. Name, image and likeness was treated as the great equalizer in recruiting battles, and A&M signed one of the best recruiting classes ever in 2023, but another coach will now have to develop it and try to improve a class currently ranked 10th.
Bjork has also said they want to have a new coach in by Dec. 4, which is the Monday after conference championship games, and Traylor’s UTSA team has a chance to participate in one if the Roadrunners win Friday night. For now, Traylor is projecting focus on that game.
UTSA coach Jeff Traylor still not tipping his hand in his response to reports that he interviewed with Texas A&M: “We play Friday at 2:30.” pic.twitter.com/4XANLZnaZ2
— Greg Luca (@GregLuca) November 20, 2023
Boise State: Sources say the Broncos are expecting to target someone with head coaching experience. Texas co-defensive coordinator Jeff Choate is an option, as he was close to getting the job when it went to Andy Avalos in 2021, and familiarity would aid him in the interview process. Choate coached at Boise under Chris Petersen and had a successful run at Montana State before arriving in Austin. Other names mentioned include a potential reunion with former coach Brian Harsin, or former Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall. Former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo would also be a cultural fit in Boise. Although they aren’t head coaches, there are also the prospects of either Moore brother (Kirby or Kellen). Both are young rising stars in the industry who played for the Broncos, with Kirby taking the reins of Missouri’s offense and seeing immediate results. Kellen is an assistant with the Chargers, and could have a chance at that head coaching job if it comes open at the end of the season.
Michigan State: Sources expect the Spartans to announce a coach shortly after the season ends. They’ve had plenty of time to conduct a search after firing Mel Tucker early in the season. There’s interest in Elko in East Lansing in addition to Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith. Another early entrant to the coaching market, Northwestern, closed officially last week by removing the interim tag off of David Braun’s title after getting the Wildcats to a shocking six wins. While it was made clear to candidates for the job that academic restrictions wouldn’t be loosened even if it made navigation of the transfer portal easier, Braun earned significant support in the donor base and administration throughout the season.
Mississippi State: The Bulldogs’ search is progressing beyond the initial phase, but how quickly a coach will be named is not clear. There’s a connection with Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, who worked under athletic director Zac Selmon at OU. If any of Liberty’s Jamey Chadwell, Troy’s Jon Sumrall, or Tulane’s Willie Fritz are to be considered, it would mean a head coach is not in place before the Dec. 2 conference championship games. Also playing into the calculus involving Fritz is the hire of new athletic director David Harris at Tulane.
San Diego State: The Aztecs are the perfect profile for the up-and-coming coordinator type to take a job in an athletic department that has designs of being upwardly mobile itself. The candidate profile will have to be a coach who doesn’t silo football from the rest of the athletic department. An early name connected to the search is UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, who interviewed this week, a source told Sports Illustrated. A current head coach or someone with head coaching experience isn’t off the table, according to industry sources. With a new stadium and a southern California location, someone will talk themselves into SDSU being a diamond in the rough. It’s expected to be able to pay top of market for a Mountain West job, around $2 million-plus. No matter who the next coach is, a plan to improve the Aztecs on offense is a must, and the Aztecs are willing to take their time for the right candidate.
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Syracuse: It’s very early in the process for a Syracuse program that opened on Sunday, and it’s a program that is near the bottom of the Power 5 in terms of desirability when you consider location, resources, and recent history. As one coach told SI: “You need to be different there, it’s a hard place to recruit to.” It’s unclear if former co-OC Sean Lewis would return given he is one of the most promising branches from the coaching tree of former head coach Dino Babers. The same goes with former Syracuse defensive coordinator Tony White. Buzz around Lewis remains despite the fact he was surprisingly demoted from his offensive coordinator role on Colorado's staff in early November. One intriguing candidate flying under the radar this cycle is Jason Candle, whose Toledo Rockets have won 10 games in a row after a two-point loss to Illinois in Week 1. One name with interest is Kentucky offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has numerous ties in the northeast. Another northeastern name to note from the FCS ranks is Bob Chesney, whose Holy Cross Crusaders are likely to miss the FCS Playoffs this year after a steady climb since he’s been in charge—which included a 12–1 record and quarterfinal run last season. There is also Yale coach Tony Reno, whose Bulldogs have won four Ivy League titles, and two outright since he’s been there.
Dino Babers and Mel Tucker have been fired so far this cycle, taking the number of Black head coaches in FBS jobs from 12 to 10. Boise State’s Andy Avalos was one of a handful of Latinos coaching college football teams as well. There are three Black interim coaches in the six open jobs: A&M’s Elijah Robinson, Greg Knox at Mississippi State, and Harlon Barnett at Michigan State—in addition to Sherrone Moore, who is filling in for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan during his suspension. It’s an all-too-familiar role: the caretaker tasked with keeping team morale together as a stopgap until the next head coach is hired. As usual, it is up to athletic directors to follow through and hire any of the many qualified minority coaches on staffs across the country, but industry sources are not optimistic this cycle will be a boon for hiring diversity, continuing a disturbing trend.
Hot seats
Baylor: AD Mack Rhoades made it clear in October that change was coming to Waco, likely to the offensive staff. Rhoades told the streaming show 365 Sports in October:
“Quite frankly, we need to make some changes, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. I believe we’ve got really good staff. I believe we’ve got really good football minds. They didn’t all of a sudden get less smart from 2021. Nobody’s working harder than them and nobody’s more disappointed than them.”
But a 3–9 finish with a loss to West Virginia on Saturday could cause more change than to just the assistant coaches.
Ball State: It’s unclear if Mike Neu has earned a ninth year in charge. A new athletic director is rarely a friend to a coach on the bubble.
Central Michigan: There is still no finality from the inquiry into how someone appearing to be disgraced former Michigan staffer Connor Stalions ended up on the sideline at Central Michigan’s opener against Michigan State. It’s heat Jim McElwain doesn’t need as the Chippewas need a win for bowl eligibility after going 4–8 in 2022.
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
New Mexico: The Lobos have turned things around on offense, but have they done enough to earn Danny Gonzales a fourth year? That’s a key question especially due to the fact that New Mexico State has a chance to win 10 games this season after shocking Auburn under second-year coach Jerry Kill. If the job does open, an intriguing name is Gary Patterson, who sources indicate is ready to get back on the sideline for the right job. Patterson had a two-year stint there in the 1990s.
Nevada: There could be a two-and-done situation at Nevada, which is 2–9 under Ken Wilson. Wilson’s buyout drops $500,000 on Dec. 1.
Rice: The Owls are 5–6 and are possibly going bowling for the second year in a row, but new AD Tommy McClelland could make a change in order to put his own stamp on the program. However, there is plenty of disagreement in the industry about whether the time for change is now.
Indiana: Tom Allen’s buyout is steep at over $20 million, and it drops to $8 million if Hoosier brass waits until next year. They’d find the money if Allen were a basketball coach, but can they do that for football? The real question facing IU administrators is how much they lose by keeping him another year.
Louisiana-Monroe: The Warhawks have one FBS win so far this season and Terry Bowden is on the hot seat due to that. At the very least, significant staff changes will be necessary in Monroe.
UTEP: El Paso is one of the hardest places in the country to win, but UTEP is looking at a 3–9 season if they lose to Liberty on Saturday.
Staff changes expected
Louisiana Tech: Multiple defensive staff changes reportedly include: defensive coordinator Scott Power, cornerbacks coach Myles Carelock and safeties coach Nate Johnson.
Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports
Florida: While head coach Billy Napier is too expensive to move so early in his tenure to the tune of $31 million, an assistant shuffle may be in the cards here, especially due to lackluster special teams play without an on-field special teams coach and procedural penalties that plague the Gators every week.
Pitt: Pat Narduzzi may need to make changes on offense. “This season is not up to Coach Narduzzi’s or Pitt’s standards,” AD Heather Lyke said in a statement to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “He has raised the bar on expectations for our program with an ACC championship and Top 25 finishes the past two years. With the onset of the offseason, we will work together to thoroughly evaluate each aspect of our program, on and off the field, so that we can begin competing for ACC titles again.”
TCU: It’s been a rough regression for TCU, and the fallout could end with a rejiggering of the coaching staff.
Southern Miss: It’s been a tough season in Hattiesburg, but Will Hall has likely earned enough equity for another season, albeit with some new assistants.
South Carolina: If changes come to Columbia, expect them on the defensive end.
USC: In one of the most popular defensive coordinator searches in the country, names to note include: former Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins, former Mississippi State coach Zach Arnett, and former Boise State coach Andy Avalos.
Either officially safe or headed in that direction
Arkansas: There’s no doubt about it. Sam Pittman will be back next year.
— Hunter Yurachek (@HunterYurachek) November 19, 2023
Arkansas State: It’s been an up-and-down season for A-State, but the offense has gotten on the right page thanks to QB Jaylen Raynor. An emphatic 77 points scored on Saturday against Texas State is hard to ignore.
Boston College: The Eagles started the season off as one of the nation’s most penalized teams and almost lost to an FCS team at home for a 0–4 September. The ship’s been righted and BC is headed to a bowl game under Jeff Hafley.
Memphis: The Tigers have had a good season by any estimation. They’ve beaten who they’re supposed to beat so far and lost to Missouri, Tulane and SMU. It’s a step in the right direction for Ryan Silverfield and the Tigers.
Houston: When asked by Paper City if he was looking forward to another season with Dana Holgorsen in charge, mega booster Tilman Fertita said “of course.” His blessing goes a long way for Holgorsen’s job security, despite the long list of suitors prepared to cue up for this job if it opened.
