Social Security's 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is now projected at between 3.4% and 3.6%, which would be the largest annual rise since 2023. Three separate forecasters lowered their estimates on 12 August, within hours of the July inflation figures landing.
Both halves of that are true at once. The projections are coming down, and the raise still beats anything paid since 2023, because the three years in between were unusually thin. Turning the percentage into a figure that means something takes one more step than it looks.