As we wave goodbye to two signature events in California and head to the full field Cognizant Classic in Florida, it feels like time to capitalise on a strong run of recent tipping form.
After backing Hideki Matsuyama in Phoenix, who eventually succumbed to Chris Gotterup in a playoff despite leading for most of the event, our resident betting expert then offered up a series of top-10 finishers in the next two PGA Tour events.
With Brooks Koepka among the notable names in the Cognizant Classic field, Baz has ramped up his research to find the best value betting tips at PGA National... eventually landing on a couple of very interesting selections!
Cognizant Classic Betting Tips 2026 - Bazza's Best Bets
Top Tip: Ryan Gerard To Win @ BetMGM
Ryan Gerard has a great chance to add a second PGA Tour title to his resume this week, and I really couldn't sing his praises enough when asked for my best bet of the week on the Kick Point Tour Issue podcast earlier this week.
Gerard was 4th here in 2023, and 25th last season, but his form is only mildly interesting in comparison to how well he fits my statistical profile for success at PGA National.
This season, Gerard ranks 10th for bogey avoidance, 17th for par-3 scoring, 8th for SG: Approach and 19th for SG: Tee To Green - all of which are crucial on the Champion Course. Add in two runner-up finishes in 2026 already and it's very hard to look past him.
Next Best: Shane Lowry To Win @ BetMGM
After the withdrawal of Adam Scott, I've been forced to submerge myself in data once again in the hope of finding a worthy understudy. In truth the search didn't take long, as the selection has to be Shane Lowry.
He was close to my card on first inspection, after kicking off his 2026 PGA Tour campaign with a T8 at Pebble Beach and a T24 at Riviera Country Club. With just one round of the eight he has played being over par, I like his game at the moment.
Lowry hasn't missed a cut here in eight appearances, banking a runner-up finish as well as three other top-11 spots. In a field that grows weaker by the day with the withdrawals of Bridgeman, Griffin and Scott - this is a great opportunity to bank a fourth PGA Tour title for the Irishman.
The Value Bet: Haotong Li To Win @ BetMGM
Anyone who listens to Tour Issue will know that I have an unhealthy obsession with Haotong Li, but I genuinely believe he has the game to win this event.
Li finished 8th at the American Express and 11th at the Farmers Insurance Open to kick off his debut PGA Tour season, and I can forgive him a missed cut in Phoenix due to a strong statistical profile.
Li ranks 13th for SG: Approach and 5th for SG: Tee To Green in the field this year, but he has also won on similarly penal courses around the world including the Majlis Course in Dubai.
There is a real possibility he struggles on debut here, but I am prepared to take a speculative punt at a good price based on the reasons listed above.
Golf Monthly Expert Betting Panel Picks
Pick One: Brooks Koepka To Win @ BetMGM
Koepka will be very excited to return to PGA National this week, an event he has played almost every year since 2014 before joining LIV Golf.
The five-time Major champion has started T55-MC on his PGA Tour return but his ball striking and chipping stats have looked very good (11th SG: Tee to green, 22nd in Approach and 6th in Around the green).
He ranks 171st in Putting so it’s clear that has been the part of his game really letting him down, but with a fortnight off I am sure he will have put in hours upon hours of work on the greens and I’m willing to bet he’ll be rolling them in this week.
Pick Two: Lee Hodges To Win @ BetMGM
Hodges has had a couple of weeks off after going MC-MC at the AmEx and Farmers Insurance Open, so he has some appealing odds this week.
The Alabaman shot eight-under at the AmEx and carded a 69 to open the Farmers before a 78 took him out.
I’m hoping that was just a blip. He did open the year with a T6 at the Sony Open, though, and has good form at PGA National with a T14 in 2023 and a T9 in 2022.
I’m banking on him re-finding his early year form to put in another display like he did at Waialae last month.
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Pick One: Ryan Gerard To Win @ BetMGM
In his last six starts, Gerard has registered runner-up finishes at the AfrAsia Mauritius Open, Sony Open in Hawaii and The American Express. He even claimed a T11th at the Farmers Insurance Open, showcasing he's in great form.
Along with those results, Gerard has a good record at PGA National, where he managed a top 25 last year, and a solo fourth in 2023. This tells me is definitely one to look out for this week, especially with a not so strong field present in Florida.
Pick Two: Davis Riley To Win Or Top-10 Finish @ BetMGM
He is a long shot, but I've backed Riley as I feel his game is still there and he does have the capabilities to go low at PGA National, as shown last year, where he shot a seven-under-par first round and four-under final round.
I understand it's a four round competition, but a low score around the layout gives me confidence that he does enjoy this course, especially when you look back and see he finished T29th in 2023.
He earned a T6th at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January, so is due a return to form after missing the cut in his last two starts.
Pick One: Shane Lowry To Win @ BetMGM
The 2026 Cognizant Classic has one of the weaker entry lists of the year, so - in theory - Lowry's class should see him compete at the right end of the leaderboard.
From a statistical point of view, the Irishman has an excellent recent record at PGA National with a runner-up and two more top-10s before a T11th last year.
Lowry isn't the longest off the tee, but he has proved several times that the rest of his game can take the strain at this event, so that's what I'm looking for this time around.
And with an encouraging set of results to start 2026 (two top-10s and two top-30s) without much to shout about in terms of SG: Around The Green, any improvement there should surely give Lowry the chance to challenge.
Pick Two: Nicolai Hojgaard To Win @ BetMGM
My other choice has a very different profile in terms of his golf game, but this tournament has offered up different styles of winner over recent years, so I don't think this will matter too much.
Nicolai Hojgaard is a powerful driver of the ball whose putting is really firing on all cylinders right now, and it's tough to go too far wrong with that combination.
The Dane finished T18th here last year and has ended T3rd and T4th in his past three starts, so both his course and overall form is right there. Like Lowry, a good week with wedges in hand should give Hojgaard the chance to go and claim a first PGA Tour title.
Golf Monthly Expert Betting Panel Winning Picks (Since Start Of 2025)
Player |
Event |
Price |
GM Staff Member |
Richard Mansell |
Porsche Singapore Classic 2025 |
+6000 |
Matt Cradock |
Sami Valimaki |
RSM Classic 2025 |
+5500 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Patrick Reed |
Dubai Desert Classic 2026 |
+4000 |
Elliott Heath |
Eugenio Chacarra |
Hero Indian Open 2025 |
+3500 |
Elliott Heath |
Sergio Garcia |
LIV Golf Hong Kong 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ludvig Aberg |
Genesis Invitational 2025 |
+2200 |
Matt Cradock |
Laurie Canter |
Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield/Matt Cradock |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
DP World Tour Championship 2025 |
+1600 |
Matt Cradock |
David Puig |
BMW Australian PGA Championship 2025 |
+1400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Tommy Fleetwood |
Tour Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ben Griffin |
World Wide Technology Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf UK 2025 |
+900 |
Matt Cradock |
Tyrrell Hatton |
Hero Dubai Desert Classic 2025 |
+900 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf Virginia 2025 |
+750 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Rory McIlroy |
The Masters 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer |
Tommy Fleetwood |
DP World India Championship 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Scottie Scheffler |
PGA Championship 2025 |
+400 |
Matt Cradock/Elliott Heath |
Rory McIlroy |
Amgen Irish Open 2025 |
+400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
