UK consumers are unlikely to see a drop in coffee prices for at least two years as geopolitical tensions and climate change drive up costs, Lavazza has said.
The Italian coffee giant said the sector had faced “exceptional volatility”, with Arabica coffee prices increasing by 230% since 2021 and Robusta up by 325% over the same period.
On Monday, Arabica coffee soared to a five-and-a-half-month high, and on Tuesday Robusta posted a five-month high amid a delayed coffee harvest in Brazil.
Coffee prices have moved sharply higher over the past month as heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered coffee crop quality.
Also, Brazilian coffee farmers are holding back on sales, hoping prices will rise and bracing for the potential impact of this year’s El Nino weather event.
Lavazza chairman Giuseppe Lavazza described the market as “quite unprecedented”, adding: “Volatility is the new constant.”
He said: “This has been a year of high turbulence and pressure, not just in the coffee market but in the general economy.”
Geopolitical tensions and climate change has “offered the perfect environment for speculators to step in to move the price to the record levels we’ve seen”, Mr Lavazza said.
He said: “The coffee market now shows fundamental changes compared to the past. We are living in an environment we don’t know very well.”
He said the market would need “at least two years of good crops coming out of Brazil and Vietnam to ease the situation and take out the effect of speculation from the market”.
Meanwhile, a flat white at the firm’s flagship cafe off Regent Street in central London has risen from last year’s £4 to £4.40 to take away and from £5.50 to £6.50 to have in, reflecting increased costs.
However, Mr Lavazza said UK consumers had shown “high resilience” to rising prices – a 1kg bag of the brand’s Qualita Rossa beans now sits at around £22.50 – with sales up on last year.
Lavazza experienced another year of “strong growth” in the UK, with revenue rising 13% to £124.9 million in 2025.
Mr Lavazza said its new Tabli home coffee system, which uses coffee tabs that are individually completely free of packaging, will launch in the UK in September.
Designed to address concerns over the sustainability of aluminium and plastic packaging, Mr Lavazza has described the new system as “the best Lavazza has designed in history”.
