The live cattle market fell by triple digits on Thursday, shedding $2.80 to $3.45 per hundredweight. The December contract settled just 40c off the lows for the day. Nearby feeder cattle also dropped on the day ending $3.40 to $3.60 red for the close. Jan feeders were $1 off the low for the bell. USDA confirmed Thursday’s cash trade was $175 to $178, with the bulk near $178. The CME Feeder Cattle Index increased 41c to $228.76 for 11/15.
Analysts are looking for this afternoon’s CoF report to show between a 0.9% and a 2.4% increase in On Feed numbers vs. November 2022. The average trade guess is +1.8%, or ~11.907m head. Estimates for cattle marketed in October range from 1.5% to 3% below October ’22, with -2.1% expected on average. The average trade guess is to see a 4.9% larger October placement year/year, though the full range of ideas is from -0.2% to +8%.
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report had 8,891 MT of beef sold during the week that ended 11/9. That was a 4-wk low. FAS data listed South Korea as the top buyer with 2.9k MT. Beef shipments were 13,539 MT for the week, bringing the year-to-date total to 700,479 MT.
Wholesale Boxed Beef prices weakened by $1.61 in Choice and 20c in Select. USDA’s FI cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday was 495k head. That was 2k head above the same week last year, but compared to 512k head during the same week last year.
Dec 23 Cattle closed at $174.750, down $3.025,
Feb 24 Cattle closed at $175.325, down $3.450,
Apr 24 Cattle closed at $177.100, down $3.375,
Nov 23 Feeder Cattle closed at $229.375, down $0.050
Jan 24 Feeder Cattle closed at $227.500, down $3.400
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
