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Rich Asplund

Cocoa Sharply Higher on Reduced Global Surplus and Commodity Index Inclusion

Ice United States NY ICCO European Union Ivory Coast London the International Cocoa Organization

March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) on Tuesday closed up +181 (+3.17%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) closed up +133 (+3.23%).

Cocoa prices extended their two-week-long rally on Tuesday to 3.5-week highs. The outlook for a smaller-than-expected global cocoa surplus has underpinned prices. On November 28, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) cut its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 49,000 MT from a previous estimate of 142,000 MT, and lowered its global 2024/25 cocoa production estimate to 4.69 MMT from a prior estimate of 4.84 MMT. Also, Rabobank on Tuesday cut its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus estimate to 250,000 MT from a November forecast of 328,000 MT.

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