Can Coco conquer the courts again at the U.S. Open? Kalshi keeps lifting Gauff toward the top of the US Open winner market. Now with a first-round win under her belt, she is at 20% to win.
Gauff’s 20% trails only Aryna Sabalenka in first place with 23% and just ahead of Iga Swiatek at 16%. Only those three sit above 10%. A $10 trade on Gauff winning the U.S. Open profits $37.32 if she wins. Over the last month, Gauff’s price jumped up from 9%.
2026 Women’s U.S. Open winner - Kalshi
- Aryna Sabalenka 23%
- Coco Gauff 20%
- Iga Swiatek 16%
Momentum flying high
Gauff came into the US Open fresh off her first singles title of the year at the Cincinnati Open, which is also played on a hardcourt surface. Hard court is one of her best surfaces. She has a 72% win percentage (187-74 overall) on hardcourts for her career.
She’s used her success on hardcourts to her advantage at the U.S. Open with several deep runs, highlighted by her 2023 U.S. Open win. Since 2022, she’s made it to at least the fourth round. She opened the first round of the 2026 US Open with a dominant win over Zeynep Sonmez in straight sets (6-3, 6-4).
Overall in 2026, Gauff has played well, but has little to show for it. She is the No. 4 ranked WTA player with a 40-13 singles record. Of that, she has a 25-6 record on hardcourts this season, including quarterfinal or better finishes at the Australian Open, Dubai Open, Miami Open, and Cincinnati Open, which she won.
She’s had a decent run in Grand Slam tournaments this year overall with a quarterfinal finish at the Australian Open, a third-round exit at the French Open, and a semifinal appearance at Wimbledon.
Gauff now awaits the winner of Paula Badosa and Daria Kasatkina in the second round. Gauff matched with Badosa earlier this year at the Berlin Open where she lost in the second round 6-1, 3-6, and 2-6. She plays the Badosa–Kasatkina winner Thursday, Sept. 3, at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock up to a $500 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $25 in trades.
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