Letting first-time buyers dip into their retirement savings for a housing deposit would push up house prices and, by extension, rents, new super industry analysis shows.
Renters could end up paying $57 more a week in today's dollars were dwelling prices to rise as a result of the federal opposition's housing proposal, the Super Members Council said.
The coalition wants Australians to be able to withdraw up to 40 per cent of their retirement savings - to a maximum of $50,000 - to buy their first home, arguing home-ownership is key to setting up a secure retirement.
Building on earlier modelling finding the scheme would fuel demand for housing and push property prices up by as much as nine per cent, the superannuation peak body said this could result in median rents rising $3,000 a year.
Chief executive officer Misha Schubert said a couple choosing to withdraw their super early for a house deposit was projected to be $165,000 worse off over their lives.
"That's because rents, mortgage repayments, stamp duties and rates would all rise – and people would lose a mountain of money from their super at retirement," she said.
CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen disagreed with the council's view on potential rent increases, arguing that they were not tied directly to changes in home prices.
However, she said encouraging people to dip into their superannuation savings "was not an ideal way to address falling home ownership".
"Even if it gives first-home buyers a competitive edge in the short term, this could ultimately put upward pressure on home values, and property sellers pocket the benefit," Ms Owen said.
"Not to mention the lost returns from the investment in superannuation."
During a senate inquiry into Australia's retirement system earlier this year, Grattan Institute's Brendan Coates said the super council's estimates of the coalition super scheme's impact on house prices "seemed excessive", but would likely push up prices at the margins.
Yet lower-income households most in need of a leg-up were unlikely to benefit from the scheme because they were unlikely to have enough super to withdraw, he said at the hearing.
Due to present the new super-for-housing research at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia on Tuesday, Ms Schubert will also argue the scheme will lower investment returns for everyone as super funds will be forced to hold more liquid assets.
In New Zealand, where buyers can access retirement savings for house deposits, investment returns are 1.14 per cent lower than for typical Australian super accounts.
