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Josh Sunman, Associate Lecturer in Public Policy, Flinders University

Coalition preferences could deliver a One Nation victory in Farrer by-election

One Nation Coalition Labor Farrer David Farley Michelle Milthorpe Pauline Hanson Sussan Ley Liberal Party Liberals

Since 2025, the radical-right One Nation party has experienced a polling surge – regularly polling ahead of the Coalition.

In the midst of this surge, and wider voter fragmentation, the Coalition is facing a by-election contest in the rural NSW electorate of Farrer on May 9.

Farrer is centred around the regional city of Albury and surrounding agricultural areas. This by-election was caused by the resignation of former Liberal Leader Sussan Ley from parliament.

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