There's one number the Coalition seems really keen to talk about with an election just around the corner.
Four per cent.
It's the current unemployment rate, sitting at a 13-year low.
For the federal government, it's a good narrative. A low unemployment rate is almost unequivocally a good thing.
And both the government and plenty of economists think it will probably plunge even lower.
But there's another really important number that's not quite budging yet, and it could throw a spanner into the works for the Coalition's economic pitch.
Wages growth still isn't climbing quite the way people like Treasurer Josh Frydenberg — and of course, every employee in the country — would like it to.
In fact, real wages are going backwards, because inflation, or the cost of living, is rising faster than workers' pay packets.
So why aren't wages budging? And is it going to change?
Why some businesses won't dig deeper
For months, photographer Scott Leggo has been trying to fill two different roles in his Canberra gallery.
The ACT has the lowest unemployment rate in the country and Mr Leggo said finding staff has never been harder.
"We certainly had a lot more applications two or three years ago than we do now, and I'd probably say the quality of what we had was greater as well," he said.
"It's definitely a tighter market, both in terms of the people that appear to be interested in work, but also the skill set that those people have."
One frustration is trying to compete with the public service, which he argues are unfairly perceived as offering more job security and better conditions.
He is looking for two mid-level sales and operations roles, both offering more than the award rate.
Mr Leggo said it is not as simple as just offering more money to try and get better candidates.
"As a small business your capacity to offer more money is limited because obviously, that's got to come from somewhere," he said.
"I think that's probably an oversimplification of the situation and doesn't necessarily reflect that wages are not the only thing that attracts staff to a business."
But he concedes that lever may have to be pulled eventually.
"It's probably hamstringing our growth in the short term," he said.
"And that's why for us it's probably becoming a stronger imperative to try and attract and retain more staff."
Scripting the political narrative on wages growth
Rarely a media opportunity goes by where Mr Frydenberg doesn't point to the unemployment rate as an indicator of a strong economy.
"The best way to create higher wages is through a tighter labour market and, yesterday, we got the unemployment rate which is the lowest rate in 14 years," he said.
The government hopes it can push the unemployment rate down below 4 per cent and eventually reach what economists refer to as the "NAIRU" — the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment.
It's the point where the labour market tightens so much it triggers both inflation growth and wages growth.
Or, to slightly oversimplify things, full employment.
The hope is that wages will start to significantly rise and inflation can be kept in check by rising productivity.
It's the kind of economy incumbent governments like to have come election time, but it doesn't seem to be here yet.
Wages growth ticked up a little in the year to December, but it is still outpaced by inflation — meaning pay packets are going backwards.
And some warn simply pushing unemployment down might not be enough to get wages up.
Wages won't grow evenly
Some economists are warning anyone hoping for a sudden surge in wages growth that things might not be so simple.
Senior economist at KPMG Sarah Hunter said the tight labour market is having a noticeable, positive impact.
"We've got a very low unemployment rate, record-high participation rate and a decades-low underemployment rate back to where it was in 2011-12," she said.
"It's across the whole economy, as well.
"The fact that it's broad-based does indicate to me that we're close to full employment."
She said there probably isn't a number that, once reached, will bring a rise for workers across the economy.
But she said it would also be remarkable to have these sorts of economic conditions and not see wages eventually start to rise.
"If we don't get a lift in wages growth over the next couple of prints, then that's something that all economists are going to have to look again at and see what's happening and why and reassess."
Any wage rises that do come with the much tighter labour market are likely to be patchy, with some sectors doing much better than others.
Sarah Hunter said part of the reason wages growth appears sluggish at the moment is that while private-sector wages might start to shift, public-sector wages and those on enterprise bargaining agreements move much more slowly.
"There's quite a few workers who can't see an uplift in wages growth straightaway, even if the labour market is quite tight as it is right now," she said.
"And the swing factor, the private sector, that one is starting to pick up and we're seeing that come through the data, but it's just one component of the whole.
"So it takes time."
Eight years of wage growth wishes
Forecasts of a looming wages boom are nothing new.
For most of the last decade, successive federal budgets have forecast wages growth rising to more than 3 per cent a year.
Those forecasts have consistently failed to materialise and ACTU secretary Sally McManus said they should be treated with plenty of scepticism.
"The government's been hoping for wages growth for the last eight years, so it's nothing new for them to be hoping for wages growth and then for it not to happen," she said.
She said if the government seriously wants to see wages rise, there are direct moves it can make beyond simply hoping the unemployment rate pushes it up.
The first is addressing job insecurity and forcing employers to put long-term casuals onto more secure part-time contracts.
Casual work was legally defined by the parliament last year, but the government decided against adopting a more specific definition agreed by both employer groups and unions.
Ms McManus said putting more people on permanent, part-time contracts would give those employees a stronger position from which to argue for wage rises.
The second, she said, is lifting wages for public servants — to send a clear price signal to the rest of the economy.
"The public sector is one of the largest employers in the country, they set prices for wages as well," she said.
"The last pay increase was only 2 per cent for Commonwealth public sector workers.
"Tomorrow, Scott Morrison could change that and that would send a big signal to the private sector as well as, obviously, boost wages."
She also argues the government should be joining a Fair Work Commission case to increase pay for aged care workers.
Very low unemployment still worth pursuing
There are plenty of other variables that will influence what worker's pay packets will look like around election time, throughout the rest of this year and further into the future.
That includes things like the return of skilled migrants and international students, who can both meet some of the demand for workers and create more demand by spending their own money.
Sarah Hunter argues the other critical factor to keeping inflation in check is to make sure it's not consuming any wages growth that does come.
"That's really a story around productivity," she said.
"And it's a very well-observed, empirical fact that productivity growth in the years immediately prior to the pandemic was relatively disappointing and low compared to historical standards."
Sally McManus warns if the federal government wants to sell voters its economic credentials, those voters are going to want to see proof in their pay.
"You don't have a good economy, and you don't have a good recovery, if workers aren't feeling it," she said.
