The leaders of around 35 countries are meeting in Paris later on Tuesday to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, a crucial component of any future peace deal to end Russia's full-scale invasion.
French President Emmanuel Macron said in his New Year's speech that "firm commitments" are expected to be made towards protecting Ukraine against any further Russian aggreesion after any deal is brokered.
"On 6 January in Paris, many European states and allies will make concrete commitments to protect Ukraine and ensure a just and lasting peace on our European continent," Macron said.
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump's adviser Jared Kushner are expected to take part in a leaders' summit in Paris.
On 3 January, European national security advisors had a meeting in Kyiv to discuss a potential peace plan for Ukraine.
After those talks, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is preparing for both the possibility of a peace deal and the need to continue defending the country against Russian aggression.
What’s on the agenda in Paris?
The discussion on the security guarantees will pick up on the joint statement released by a group of European leaders after a meeting in Berlin last month. The leaders will focus on long-term commitments for Ukraine, aimed at preventing Russia from any attack or invasion in the future.
Together with sustained Western military and political support they are seen by both Kyiv and Washington as a crucial part of any possible peace deal.
The pledge, which drew comparisons with NATO's Article 5 of collective defence, is considered fundamental to convince Kyiv to abandon its constitutionally enshrined aspiration to join the transatlantic alliance in exchange for credible and robust deterrence.
The Article 5-like guarantee would be highly consequential for European governments and require approval from their national parliaments, a process that always entails risks. An endorsement by the US Congress could help alleviate lingering reservations from some European countries.
Another key focus of the work on security guarantees is the mechanism to verify potential breaches of a future ceasefire and allocate responsibility because a violation, once identified, could trigger the Article 5-like provision. The proposed system envisions high-tech deployed across the contact line.
Another layer of security guarantees is Ukraine's accession to the European Union. The current 20-point peace plan floats an admission by January 2027, which many officials in the European Commission consider unrealistic and unfeasible. The date will most likely change and become aspirational, with Ukraine entering the bloc in stages to avoid a disruption in, for example, agricultural markets.
For Kyiv, having an accession date in the final text is a top priority as it could help counter the pain of territorial concessions and facilitate a positive result in an eventual referendum.
The US administration repeatedly said Europe should take more responsibility for Ukraine's future security.
Following a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Zelenskyy in Florida in December, the US president suggested there would be a "strong" security agreement for Ukraine and said "European nations are very much involved."
"I feel that European nations have been really great and they're very much in line with this meeting and with getting a deal done. They are all terrific people," Trump said.
One of the most controversial elements to be discussed in Paris is the possibility of deploying troops inside or close to Ukraine, but far from the frontlines.
Russia has said it won’t accept troops from NATO countries on Ukrainian soil.
Ukraine peace plan
After talks with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, the Ukrainian president said that the US security guarantees for Ukraine were "100% agreed."
"We have great achievements, the 20-point peace plan is 90% agreed and US-Ukraine security guarantees are 100% agreed," Zelenskyy told reporters.
"US, Europe and Ukraine security guarantees are almost agreed. The military dimension is 100% agreed."
Zelenskyy said that after the meeting in Paris, the documents are expected to be agreed upon "at the level of all leaders" and only then will a meeting be scheduled with Trump and European leaders.
Zelenskyy also explained to journalists in the presidential WhatsApp chat that after a meeting with Trump and the Europeans, "if everything goes step by step, there will be a meeting in one format or another with the Russians."
