Victorian Opposition Leader John Pesutto says polling shows the coalition is on the right track despite rebel colleagues plotting to knife him.
A survey of 1516 Victorians by independent polling outfit RedBridge has the coalition pulling ahead of Labor 51 to 49 on a two-party preferred basis.
The poll, published by the Herald Sun, was conducted between September 26 and October 3.
It was carried out amid Mr Pesutto's high-stakes defamation trial with ousted MP Moira Deeming but before internal rumblings emerged of a looming leadership spill motion as early as Tuesday.
The Victorian coalition has not led Labor on two-party preferred basis since June 2017, during the first term of Daniel Andrews' premiership.
Under his successor Jacinta Allan, Labor enjoyed a comfortable 55 to 45 two-party preferred lead over the coalition four months ago, but its primary vote has since slipped from 35 per cent to 30 per cent.
The coalition's primary vote has lifted from 38 per cent to 40 per cent over the same span.
The Victorian Liberal leader said the latest poll signalled the tide was turning against Labor as it seeks a historic fourth successive term in office.
"Support for the Allan Labor government seems to be tanking at a rapid rate of knots," Mr Pesutto told reporters in Melton.
But he wouldn't be drawn on whether the poll would prove a lifeline for his leadership or silence agitators, ahead of Tuesday's highly anticipated party room meeting.
"I welcome what appears to be an ongoing trend ... but we've got more work to do," Mr Pesutto said.
Senior government minister Lizzie Blandthorn deflected questions about Labor and the premier's popularity, declaring the Liberal leadership speculation showed the opposition only cared about itself.
"They're pointing the finger at each other rather than doing what is their job," she said.
RedBridge director and former Labor campaign strategist Kos Samaras said the party's primary vote among Victorians experiencing severe economic stress was "catastrophically low" at 24 per cent.
Failing to address the cohort would "likely result in significant electoral losses in Melbourne's southeastern and western suburbs, potentially mirroring the substantial swings against Labor in the 2022 Victorian state election".
"In that election, many previously safe Labor seats experienced primary vote swings exceeding 15 per cent," Mr Samaras posted on X.
"In 2026, many of these Labor MPs no longer have fat margins to protect them from what could be an even larger backlash."
The coalition would need to pick up at least 17 extra seats to form majority government when Victorians next head to the polls on November 28, 2026.
