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The Conversation
The Conversation
Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Coalition has lead in most polls as Dutton gains five-point preferred PM lead in Resolve

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted January 15–21 from a sample of 1,610, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead using 2022 election preference flows, unchanged from the early December Resolve poll. The Coalition had a wider 52–48 lead by respondent preferences.

Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 27% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady), 10% independents (down one) and 6% others (up one). Labor’s primary vote fell three points to 27% in December.

Peter Dutton held a 39–34 lead over Anthony Albanese as preferred PM, after they were tied at 35% each in December. This is easily Dutton’s biggest lead in any poll on this measure, which usually favours the incumbent relative to voting intentions.

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