Almost anybody forecasting the MLS season has the Fire near the bottom of the 15-team Eastern Conference. The reasoning is simple: The common thought is the club didn’t do enough to bolster a squad that wasted a strong start in 2022. Yes, selling goalkeeper Gabriel Slonina and forward Jhon Duran to Premier League teams was great business, but that won’t really help the Fire win games in 2023.
Coach Ezra Hendrickson has seen the dire predictions. To put it bluntly, he and his players don’t agree with the projections.
“It’s a really good locker room,’’ Hendrickson said. ‘‘We have some good leadership, so that’s good, as an extension of the coaching staff. I think something that’s fueling the players, too, is just the lack of respect that we’re getting from the experts. So if you want, call it bulletin-board material.”
After 2022 — actually, the last few seasons — the Fire probably don’t need that much extra motivation.
The players acknowledge last year was a failure. They started well, but familiar bugaboos such as a lack of depth, injuries and untimely collapses did them in. Attacker Xherdan Shaqiri, whose 2022 was disappointing, knows where the Fire must go to make 2023 a success.
But he isn’t too concerned about proving outsiders wrong starting Saturday night, when the Fire host New York City FC at Soldier Field.
“I think we always have expectations,” Shaqiri said. “As a team, and especially after last season, we didn’t make the playoffs. We have even more hunger this season to make the playoffs and to be successful.”
Other Fire mainstays have said the same things entering previous seasons. Some years, the players were confident because of a rash of new signings. Other years, they thought continuity and another year together would create the cohesion that would translate into more victories.
This year, it seems like a combination. There are changes, but the opening roster looks like a slightly updated version of last year’s squad, which shut out 12 opponents but only scored 39 times.
Outside of Slonina, Duran, starting right back Boris Sekulic and veteran defender Jonathan Bornstein, the Fire haven’t lost much. Meanwhile, they’ve added a replacement for Sekulic in Arnaud Souquet, brought in forwards Kei Kamara and Georgios Koutsias to take Duran’s spot and still could sign a high-priced striker. The team is expected to use top prospect Chris Brady in place of Slonina.
Shaqiri is confident this mix will bring better results.
“We have been together longer, of course,” he said. “We have some new players who are a very good addition to our team, and they are going to help us. I’m really looking forward to [having] them on our team and to try to win more points and more games, score more goals. I’m looking forward to finally [starting] the season this weekend.”
This season figures to be a key one for the franchise, which is still digging out from the last decade, when it fell to the lower rungs of the league. If the team gets off to a rough start or consistently struggles like it did after the early portions of last season, the futures of Hendrickson, sporting director Georg Heitz and technical director Sebastian Pelzer likely will become a pressing question.
Another poor year would further kneecap owner Joe Mansueto’s ambitions for the franchise and push the Fire even further from the mainstream Chicago sports conversation.
Of course, the Fire don’t see that happening. Hendrickson seems excited about the moves the team made in the offseason, and he has repeatedly stated how close last year’s team was to making the postseason. If the Fire can avoid costly miscues and hold their leads, Hendrickson sees a team that could succeed and be more than a factor in the playoff race.
Few pundits — locally or nationally — agree.
“We’ve brought in some added reinforcements,” Hendrickson said. “Overall, the team is stronger than we were last year, and we’re going to surprise some people this year. People who don’t expect us to be good as a team, I think we’ll surprise them.”
2023 FIRE
2022 record: 10-15-9, 39 points (12th in the Eastern Conference).
Key additions: F Kei Kamara, F Georgios Koutsias, D Arnaud Souquet, W Maren Haile-Selassie, GK Jeff Gal.
Key subtractions: GK Gabriel Slonina, F Jhon Duran, D Boris Sekulic, D Jonathan Bornstein.
Best-case scenario: A healthy and settled Xherdan Shaqiri, a fit Jairo Torres, a full year of Chris Mueller and the breakout of Brian Gutierrez give the Fire a potent set of attackers to feed Kamara, Koutsias and a potential big-name striker, creating the goals the team lacked last year. Playing behind a strong back line, Chris Brady establishes himself as one of the world’s best young goalkeepers, and the Fire ride coach Ezra Hendrickson’s defensive mentality into the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
Worst-case scenario: Shaqiri and Torres can’t shake the injury bug, and Gutierrez stagnates despite the high expectations. Meanwhile, Kamara’s age catches up with him, Koutsias’ acclimation to MLS is slow and the high-priced scorer doesn’t arrive, leaving the Fire starved for goals again. To compensate for the lack of punch, the Fire try to open things up, but the defense is left vulnerable and bleeds chances. The result is another lost season and potentially major changes even before the final whistle of 2023.
Prediction: The front office attempted to improve the team by adding serviceable depth, and it looks like it has succeeded. But even with the signings, too much has to go right, and the roster bears too much of a resemblance to last year’s squad, which clearly was a step behind the better clubs in the league. A new playoff format (nine teams qualify from each conference) should keep the Fire in the mix for a spot, but they’ll finish 12th in the East and leave the franchise at yet another crossroads.
