The biggest polluters will blow Australia's emissions targets without agreement in parliament on an important revamped climate measure, according to a leading businesswoman.
Chair of the business-led Carbon Market Institute Kerry Schott intends to confront politicians with the fact they face a stark choice.
That is, repeat the brief but remarkable climate policy collaboration of more than 10 years ago or risk more delay at a time of great economic, climate and geopolitical uncertainty, she will tell decision makers at the National Press Club on Tuesday.
The next fortnight determines whether the draft safeguard mechanism that requires Australia's 215 biggest industrial plants to make deeper emissions cuts from July 1 will pass or stall.
"If this date is delayed by even a year the emissions reduction targets of the facilities with the heaviest pollution become even more difficult to reach," Dr Schott will say.
She also calls for a 2035 target of at least a 70 per cent reduction in emissions to make climate change "even remotely manageable", up from the existing 43 per cent by 2030 target and net zero by 2050.
"It may appear ambitious but progress in Victoria and NSW suggest it is possible and science suggests that a change of this magnitude is needed," she says.
No stranger to the climate wars, the former Energy Security Board chair says the proposed mechanism is also important for Australia's international reputation, "given our poor climate change policy record in the recent past".
Australia's stance will also be very important for the chance to co-host the United Nations climate talks in 2026 with Pacific nations, she says.
But she will urge an end to secrecy over the modelling and analysis used by the regulator to justify some methods used to generate carbon credits.
And she says many concerns around the proposed mechanism relate to the "awkward" changes proposed without enough detail.
The "clunky add-ons" would be largely avoided if Australia had an economy-wide carbon price, according to Dr Schott.
Critics say the draft mechanism bill before parliament is too weak, because it allows unlimited carbon credits and an expansion of coal and gas.
But because Australia is trying to decarbonise, not de-industrialise, it is essential that those facilities who need it, have time to change, Dr Schott argues.
Separately, the Australian Institute released research to AAP showing the 116 new fossil fuel projects in the federal government's major project list would add 4.8 billion tonnes of emissions to the atmosphere by 2030.
This increase in greenhouse gases would be 24 times greater than the 205 million tonne reduction in emissions the proposed safeguard mechanism aims to achieve, Australia institute spokesman Mark Ogge says.
He says the proposed mechanism not only fails to stop these damaging projects, it gives them an approved level of pollution.
