Governments are gathering in Azerbaijan on Monday for talks on the climate that will test wealthy nations' commitment to funding poorer ones bearing the brunt of global warming. But concerns over Baku's human rights record and deep ties to fossil fuels have cast a heavy shadow over the UN’s crucial "finance Cop".
Cop29 is taking place as 2024 is expected to be declared the hottest year ever recorded.
The two-week event faces major challenges: Azerbaijan has announced plans to expand gas production, local activists have been jailed in a pre-summit crackdown, and nations remain sharply divided over who should pay the trillions needed to tackle climate impacts.
What's undisputed, however, is that emissions are not being cut fast enough. United Nations estimates show the planet is on track for a catastrophic temperature rise of between 2.6C and 3.1C by 2100 – far above the safer 1.5C limit set in Paris in 2015.
The need for action is amplified by a looming February 2025 deadline for countries to update their Nationally Determined Contributions, or emissions reduction targets, under the Paris Agreement.
Without stronger commitments, the world faces rising sea levels, devastating heatwaves and worsening food insecurity.
Finance goal
Sitting at the top of the agenda is climate finance. The world must agree a new funding goal to replace the previous $100 billion annual target, which wealthy nations only met in 2022 – two years late.
That delay eroded trust between richer and poorer nations, and the latter now say they need far more support to transition to a low-carbon future as they grapple with the escalating impacts of climate change.
This post-2025 funding goal – to be agreed by nearly 200 nations – is expected to be one of the key outcomes of Cop29.
Some countries are calling for $1 trillion annually, with the funds split between emissions cuts, adaptation and disaster relief. A UN-commissioned report found that developing nations will require $2.4 trillion per year by 2030.
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Ongoing divisions
But fractures remain. Wealthy countries like the United States argue that the donor pool should be expanded to include contributions from major economies like China – now the world's largest polluter – as well as oil-rich Gulf states.
The existing donor group, which also excludes big economies such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, was based on the development status of nations at the time the UN's climate convention was ratified back in 1992.
Developing countries insist those with the longest histories of industrialisation bear the primary responsibility for climate finance.
Another contentious issue is the form the financial support should take. Developing countries want grants rather than loans so as to avoid being saddled with further debt down the road.
With the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations now spending twice as much annually on debt repayments as they receive in climate aid, financial solutions are seen as a critical part of successful climate action.
Meanwhile fossil-fuel producers such as Azerbaijan are pushing for more control over finance targets – a stance that critics say risks undermining more robust solutions.
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Greenwashing fears
This year’s Cop marks the third consecutive summit held in an authoritarian state, following Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Azerbaijan is an unusual host for a climate summit focused on reducing emissions, given that fossil fuels make up about half its economy.
President Ilham Aliyev recently announced plans to boost gas production to meet European energy needs, calling his country’s reserves “a gift from God”.
This has raised questions over conflicts of interest – especially given Aliyev’s selection of Mukhtar Babayev, a key oil figure, as Cop29’s lead negotiator.
“Azerbaijan must guide the UN negotiations towards agreement on crucial climate finance. But the country’s weak environmental credentials, repressive politics and attachment to fossil fuel revenues invite doubts about its ability to provide effective climate leadership,” the London-based policy institute Chatham House warned in a report.
“There is a risk that Azerbaijan could rally fellow fossil fuel producers around limited and unambitious outcomes at the summit.”
Unlike Cop28 in Dubai last year, which hosted a record 100,000 attendees, Baku is expected to host between 40,000 and 50,000 government representatives, UN officials, scientists and activists.
But human rights groups warn Azerbaijan's crackdown on civil society could limit local participation. Amnesty International reported that more than 300 people have been imprisoned on politically motivated charges.
Activists and journalists, including climate advocate Anar Mammadli, remain in detention, sparking warnings that Azerbaijan’s presidency may serve more to “greenwash” its image than advance global climate action.
