If I had to sum up COP29 in a single word, it would be entropy. Borrowed from thermodynamics, this concept describes the delicate balance between order and disorder, a principle that governs both natural and human systems. An ecosystem, much like the climate negotiations, is not static; it is constantly evolving, adapting and reconfiguring itself.
In a curiously organic way, a COP also works like this, as a chaotic yet seamless gathering of voices, interests and perspectives.
The endless summit corridors are packed with almost 60,000 participants, each navigating their way to uncertain outcomes at predetermined destinations: a negotiating table, a roundtable discussion or a profound conversation on the future of the climate. In this global microcosm, where governments, businesses, NGOs and academics converge, the interplay of interests is never stable, yet the wheels of the system remain constantly in motion.
My watch (and feet) can attest to the sheer scale of this gathering. During my time here I have been clocking over 25,000 steps per day, roughly half a marathon, in my efforts to keep up with the rushing, incessantly conversing human tides.
The energy transition maze: complexity and interdependence
It is easy to point fingers at the more than 1,700 representatives from the oil and gas sectors attending COP29, yet their role in the energy transition is absolutely crucial. After COP28, even giants like ExxonMobil and Shell acknowledged that their future depends on diversifying their portfolios and transitioning to more sustainable business models. The current market is not, however, designed to make clean energy as profitable as oil and gas – complex systemic issues present roadblocks to a competitive transition.
The cost of solar energy has plummeted by 88% since 2010, and onshore wind by 68%. While this has helped to foster key industries such as electric vehicles and solar panels, clean energy is still far from being self-sufficient. Its success depends on a much more complex interplay between industry, governments and infrastructure.
In Spain, for instance, renewables account for 61.5% of installed capacity, with 78,968 MW of production, yet the stark reality is that there are 130 GW of renewable projects waiting to be connected to an electricity grid that is not ready to handle them.
Outdated infrastructure and slow bureaucratic processes are creating a bottleneck that prevents clean energy from being monetised, undermining its profitability and slowing its uptake. The complexities don’t stop there – further progress is also sorely needed in energy storage and data management, as well as in building optimised distribution networks.
Renewable energy vs biodiversity?
There is a paradoxical element to the climate struggle. As we move towards decarbonisation, some renewable projects are having a highly detrimental impact on the environment, affecting precisely one of the other major global challenges: the recovery of biodiversity.
The Maestrazgo Cluster in Castellon, Spain, which envisages the installation of over 125 wind turbines in Natura 2000 protected areas, is a clear example of this conflict. Local resistance, often framed as a NIMBY (not in my backyard) cause, is not only an aesthetic or territorial issue – it also houses deeper concerns about the preservation of unique ecosystems that could be lost forever.
As industries grapple with being competitive, the stakes are even higher for countries themselves. China and India are heading the technological race, so falling behind could lead to economic disaster. This is the main reason why figures like ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods are encouraging Donald Trump to join the climate negotiations – not out of altruism, but as a strategic necessity.
The energy transition requires more than just investment in renewables; it also means designing a system that can combine efficient grids, streamlined processes, stable public policies, conservation efforts and the needs of local communities. Ignoring any of these elements will not only further delay the transition, it will also expose us to fresh environmental and social crises. There are no easy solutions to these complex problems.
Leer más: The climate and biodiversity crises are entwined, but we risk pitting one against the other
The price of saving the planet
We are still waiting for the magic “commitment number” – the figure that developed countries decide to allocate to developing nations to fund their climate transition.
Why is this so important? Because many of these countries lack the resources to implement renewable energy projects and adapt their infrastructures to reduce climate change. However, this funding is not just a matter of charity. It is also a way to ensure that all countries, regardless of their resources, can contribute to the fight against climate change.
In this sense, Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement represents a step towards a more orderly system by setting out a global framework for carbon credit trading, under UN oversight. It aims to prevent double counting and fraud, as well as to restore confidence in a market that fell to $723 million in 2023 after multiple scandals.
Under this system, countries will be able to trade carbon credits produced by projects anywhere in the world, generating revenue to fund their own transitions. It replaces the former Clean Development Mechanism established under the Kyoto Protocol and seeks to establish clear rules to deter fraud and double emission counting.
The entropy lesson
COP29 offers a clear lesson: tension and complexity are inherent to the climate challenge. Much like entropy itself, the energy transition is a constantly shifting system with opposing forces that need to be balanced.
Solving this puzzle demands more than just funds and technological breakthroughs. It requires bold leadership, international cooperation, and the ability to navigate a system where tensions – decarbonisation vs conservation, efficiency vs climate justice – have to be carefully managed and balanced.
Energy is the driving force behind this process, not only in the physical sense, but also in the political and social realms. The question is whether we can channel COP29’s chaos into a more sustainable and orderly future. Entropy may be a challenge, but it is also an opportunity, a reminder that there is room to build something extraordinary, even within disorder.
Isabela del Alcázar no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
