Victorians are facing a future with more extreme weather, a $185 billion natural disaster bill and depleted biodiversity.
That's the verdict from Environmental Sustainability Commissioner Gillian Sparkes, who has recommended a suite of changes to counteract the state's environmental decline.
Climate change in Victoria is getting worse on the whole, with only one of 13 global warming measures - annual net greenhouse gas emissions - improving with a fall of 27 per cent from 2015 to 2020.
Seven years in the past decade were among the state's 10 warmest on record.
Not only are average annual temperatures in Melbourne approaching 1.5 degrees more than they were in the pre-industrial era, but some years are now more than 1.5 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial baseline, Victoria's five-yearly environment report card found.
The report, tabled in Victorian Parliament on Thursday, warned temperatures in Melbourne would increase by about 2.5 degrees from pre-industrial levels by the 2040s if they continued to rise on their current trajectory.
"Victoria is getting warmer, is more fire-prone and can expect more extreme weather in the future," Dr Sparkes said in the Victorian State of the Environment 2023 Report.
The financial cost of natural disasters was expected to reach at least $185 billion cumulatively between 2020 and 2060.
The number of very hot days across the state was projected to double by the 2050s, the report found.
Biodiversity also remained a big challenge for Victoria, the commissioner said.
The report looked at 42 assessment areas for biodiversity and found that in 32, it had either deteriorated since 2018 or was unable to be assessed.
"The status of many indicators remains poor, deteriorating trends continue and data confidence in the assessments, including the new 'threatened species' indicators is generally low," Dr Sparkes said.
"The 2019/20 bushfires further compounded Victoria's biodiversity challenges."
The impact of the 2022 floods on Victoria's diversity is yet to be determined.
The commissioner made 15 recommendations, urging the government to update its climate change modelling, develop IT infrastructure to monitor air quality, begin independent biennial reporting of progress towards 2037 targets and adequately resource traditional owners to assess and develop bio-cultural indicators.
She also recommended the government set up multiple "safe havens" in Victoria to protect and restore critical habitats.
The government has 12 months to respond to the recommendations.
Of 171 environmental trend assessments in the report, 33 were reported as improving, 34 were stable, 60 were deteriorating and 44 were unclear.
