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Climate Change Driving Food Price Inflation, Study Finds

A woman shelters from the sun with an umbrella along the Seine River, as Europe is under an extreme heat wave, in Paris, France, Aug. 2, 2022. Food prices and overall inflation will rise as tem

A recent study conducted by an environmental scientist and the European Central Bank has revealed that as temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, food prices and overall inflation are expected to increase significantly. The study analyzed monthly price data of food and other goods in 121 nations since 1996, taking into account temperature variations and other climate factors.

Researchers predict that 'weather and climate shocks' will lead to a 1.5 to 1.8 percentage point annual increase in food prices within the next decade, with even higher impacts in regions like the Middle East. This rise in food costs is projected to result in an overall inflation increase of 0.8 to 0.9 percentage points by 2035, solely due to climate change-induced extreme weather events.

The study emphasizes that while these percentage points may seem small, they hold significant implications for institutions like the U.S. Federal Reserve that combat inflation. Lead author of the study, a climate scientist, highlighted the persistent impact of climate change on inflation, describing it as a threat to human and economic welfare.

Looking ahead to 2060, the study forecasts a further escalation in climate-induced inflation, with global food prices estimated to surge by 2.2 to 4.3 percentage points annually, translating to a 1.1 to 2.2 percentage point increase in overall inflation.

Experts warn that the phenomenon, termed 'climateflation,' is a tangible reality with substantial economic consequences. The research team examined 20,000 data points to establish a direct correlation between extreme weather events, particularly heatwaves, and rising prices, projecting a worrisome future scenario of escalating costs.

The study underscores the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity, attributing reduced output to weather-related disruptions. The recent European heatwave in 2022 serves as a prime example, where food supplies dwindled, causing a notable increase in food prices and overall inflation.

Analysts suggest that regions experiencing higher temperatures are likely to face more severe inflationary pressures on essential goods, particularly food. The study highlights the disproportionate impact on vulnerable regions in the Global South, where affordability could be a critical concern.

These findings shed light on the urgent need for proactive measures to address the intersection of climate change and economic stability, emphasizing the importance of mitigating climate-related risks to safeguard global food security and economic well-being.

For more climate-related news, visit AP's Climate Coverage.

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