Climate 200, the political funding group that backed teal candidates at the last federal election, has so far this year spent $200,000 on campaigns in a dozen battleground seats held by the Coalition, and will spend another $1 million in the same districts before the year is over, Crikey can reveal. Meanwhile Labor will face challenges from candidates backed by groups seeking to mobilise Muslim voters, and from emboldened Greens.
“I think there’s a range of seats that can be vulnerable to a good candidate with a campaign machine,” Redbridge director of corporate affairs and communications Tony Barry told Crikey.
“The teals were more than just credible candidates — they had significant money and significant personnel behind those campaigns, which you need. There have been plenty of independent candidates over the years, some very good people, who got utterly flogged at the ballot box because their operations were run at home with a few family members and loved ones.”
Climate 200 said it had already provided grants to campaigns in 12 seats. In Victoria, those campaigns are based in Casey, Deakin, Monash and Wannon.
In Deakin, Labor slashed Liberal MP Michael Sukkar’s previous margin of 4.7% to just 0.2% at the 2022 election.
In Casey, Liberal MP Aaron Violi replaced retiring party colleague Tony Smith, and the margin went from 4.6% to 1.5% after a swing to Labor.
In Monash, where Liberal MP Russell Broadbent has since switched to the crossbench, the margin went from a safe 6.9% to 2.9%, again following a swing to Labor. Broadbent’s office told Crikey it wouldn’t comment on whether he’d run in the next election.
In Wannon, the independent, Climate 200-backed Alex Dyson came within 3.9 percentage points of Liberal incumbent Dan Tehan in 2022. The previous margin was a safe 10.2%. Crikey understands there are strong local rumours Dyson is considering running again.
In NSW, teals are eyeing a pair of seats where independent candidates came close to beating Coalition opponents in 2022. In Cowper, National Pat Conaghan’s margin went from a safe 11.9% to a competitive 2.3%. And in Bradfield, Liberal Paul Fletcher’s margin was cut from a very safe 16.6% to 4.2%.
In Queensland, Climate 200 is backing campaigns in McPherson (which went from a Liberal margin of 12.2% to 9.3% in 2022), Moncrieff (15.4% to 11.2%), Fisher (12.7% to 8.7%), and Fairfax (13.4% to 9%). The runners-up in those seats were all Labor candidates.
The final two Climate 200-backed campaigns are being run in Western Australia. In Forrest, the ALP cut the Liberal margin from 14.6% to 4.3% at the last election, and in Moore, Liberal MP Ian Goodenough saw his margin plummet from 11.6% to just 0.7%. He has since lost Liberal preselection and is reportedly considering contesting the seat as a Nationals candidate at the next election, according to The West Australian.
“The public’s support for the major parties has long been trending downwards: people want better options. Australians are concerned about economic management and they want sensible leadership that can steer us out of the climate crisis and strengthen our democratic processes,” Climate 200 executive director Byron Fay told Crikey.
“Since the stunning success of the independents at the last federal election, and their achievements since, the community’s hunger for independent representation has exploded.”
He added Climate 200 was “aware of around 20 community campaigns around the country in a position to run a strong independent campaign at the next election”.
Groups like The Muslim Vote and Muslim Votes Matter — both of which are reportedly looking to back candidates in Labor-held seats around the country where voters are disappointed with the government’s stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict — are harder to pin down.
The Muslim Vote did not respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for Muslim Votes Matter declined to comment on where in particular the organisation believed it could back successful candidates, saying: “That is yet to be determined as not all candidates have been named.”
Meanwhile, the Greens will seek to capitalise on a broader platform, beyond environmental issues, focused on housing and renting. According to Capital Brief, the party will “target Labor heartland”, taking aim at seats like Wills in Victoria, which is seen as a safe Labor electorate with an 8.6% margin against the Greens.
The party’s housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather told The Australian on Monday the Greens will also target two additional Brisbane seats currently held by Labor: Lilley, which has a 10.5% margin, and Moreton, where the margin is 9.1%. The Greens also hope to hold on to the three Queensland seats they won in 2022.
“It’s not so much about whether or not we can retain these three seats, but whether or not we’ll win another one; Moreton and Lilley are both a big opportunity for us,” Chandler-Mather told the newspaper.
The 2022 election saw a “large-scale abandonment of major party voting”, according to the Australian Election Study, with the combined major party primary vote at just 68.3%, the lowest since the 1930s. While the Liberals took the biggest hit, the spoils did not go to Labor, which recorded its lowest primary vote in decades. Rather, it was the Greens, and independents, that benefited from the change in voter appetites.
According to Barry, the increased competition is likely to benefit communities that might have otherwise been taken for granted.
“I think competition is always a good thing, especially for the major parties to try to become more relevant, to try to offer more credible policies. That’s what the emergence of these sorts of parties [and movements] do,” he said.
Are you likely to back an independent or Green candidate at the next election? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
