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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Prince J. Grimes

Clashing strengths in Necaxa vs. Toluca may create good betting value

Friday night’s Liga MX action gets underway with a meeting between two teams in desperate need of a win.

Necaxa hosts Toluca with both entering the match winless in their last three league contests. Overall, Necaxa is 2-2-4 and in 13th place with eight points. Toluca is five spots ahead with 10 points and a 3-1-3 record but goes into Friday’s match as the underdog.

Necaxa vs. Toluca Odds

Moneyline: Necaxa (-107), Toluca (+235), Tie (+295)

Double Chance: Necaxa or Tie (-420), Necaxa or Toluca (-370), Toluca or Tie (-135)

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook

Considering recent results, the tie holds excellent value.

Despite a slightly better record, Toluca actually has a worse scoring margin than Necaxa by one point. It’s due to a defense that allows an average of two goals per game.

Necaxa, on the other hand, defends better but doesn’t necessarily score enough to take advantage of such a leaky defense on the other side. They have just nine goals in eight games, and just one goal in their last three — none in their last two.

Against Toluca, Necaxa should be able to get back into the scoring column, but don’t expect a flurry of points. Meanwhile, Toluca won’t likely be able to score more than a goal itself. They’ve scored just one goal in each of their last four contests.

That puts excellent value on the -127 odds for under 2.5 goals, and slightly less but still good value on both teams scoring at -127 odds. If you’re feeling really good about it, you can get +440 odds on the game ending exactly in a 1-1 tie.

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