Each recorded fatal Israeli airstrike on Gaza since 7 October has caused an average of 10.1 civilian deaths, a monitoring group has said, amid warnings that reported civilian casualty figures are likely to be an underestimate.
The fatality average is far higher than in the three previous Israeli air campaigns in Gaza, of which the most deadly was Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014, where the equivalent figure was 2.5.
Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) said the higher figure this time implied there had been a notable change in Israel’s targeting approach – although the figure is lower than in other recent battles in Iraq and Syria.
Iain Overton, the group’s executive director, said: “This isn’t just a statistical concern, it’s a human one. The numbers suggest a potential shift in military strategy that has had devastating consequences for non-combatants.”
He said the higher rate of civilian casualties raised concerns that international humanitarian law had been breached during the month-long intense bombing of Gaza.
Israel denies that civilians or civilian infrastructure are the target of its attacks, arguing that its focus is to remove Hamas fighters from northern Gaza.
On Friday, during a visit to Delhi, Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said that while Washington appreciated Israeli efforts to minimise civilian casualties in its bombing campaign, these needed to go further.
He said “far too many” Palestinians had died and more needed to be done to protect lives. The US has proposed that Israel introduce longer humanitarian pauses in the fighting and increase the amount of aid getting into Gaza.
The civilian casualty figures are based on the same methodology for each conflict. Averages are derived from analysis of reputable English-language media reports of airstrikes where any deaths of civilians are cited. During two other Israeli air campaigns in Gaza, in 2012 and 2021, the averages were 1.3 and 1.7 respectively.
The monitoring group derived its average for the conflict based on media reports of 276 airstrikes that caused fatalities. A total of 2,798 Palestinians were reported to have been killed in the incidents monitored and a further 1,306 were injured.
Overton said he believed the high deaths per airstrike figure relative to previous conflicts in Gaza could indicate that the overall civilian death toll is higher than has been reported so far. According to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, a total of 11,078 Palestinians, including 4,500 children, have been killed.
Israel’s air force says it has fired more than 8,000 munitions into Gaza, hitting more than 12,000 targets. Guardian analysis published last weekend identified 1,000 craters visible from space within approximately 10 sq km in northern Gaza.
The average numbers reported killed per casualty-causing airstrike is lower than seen in two other major urban battles in the Middle East. According to AOAV, the capture of Mosul from Islamic State by Iraqi and western forces in March 2017 led to the deaths of 20.7 civilians per recorded strike.
The Russian and Syrian government assault on Aleppo in 2016 was more deadly still, with an average of 22.9 fatalities per reported airstrike.
This week, a US official also said the Palestinian death toll could be higher than was reported. Barbara Leaf, the assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, told the House committee on foreign relations that the overall casualty numbers were “very high, frankly – and it could be that they’re even higher than are being cited”.
