Even in a sport which thrives on optimism and uncertainty, there are few “what ifs?” to match the moment when an exceptional colt from last year’s juvenile crop canters to post for the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. For months, fans and backers of the “winter favourite” for the Classic will have followed his progress from two to three via market moves, occasional “no news is good news” updates from the stable, and the online rumour-mill, but six months on from his last trip to the track, it is time for the talking to stop.
And on the bleak, windswept expanse of the Rowley Mile, there is, quite literally, nowhere to hide. So it is probably for the best that City Of Troy, the favourite for the first Classic of 2024 at Newmarket on Saturday, remains blissfully unaware of the weight of expectation on his back.
City Of Troy is, by my count at least, the fourth colt in the past 13 years to be lauded as “the best since Frankel”, who confirmed that his freakish talent had flourished over the winter when he spread-eagled the 2,000 Guineas field in 2011. Too Darn Hot, in 2019, was ruled out of the Classic with a minor injury a fortnight before the race. Pinatubo and Air Force Blue, meanwhile, both set off at odds-on for the Guineas – and both were beaten, finishing third and second-last respectively.
The memory of Air Force Blue’s complete failure to repeat his juvenile dominance a season later is probably the one that will nag most as Aidan O’Brien prepares to send his latest potential superstar off into his three-year-old career. Unlike City Of Troy, who is unbeaten in three starts, Air Force Blue already had a defeat on his record when he ran in the Guineas, but in most other respects – including the language that their trainer has used to describe them – the similarities are striking.
“He’s something that we haven’t had before,” O’Brien said after the Dewhurst at Newmarket. “I’d say no doubt, the size of him and the scope, and the class and the way he travelled, and when you let him go, he delivers.” But which Dewhurst? That, in fact, was the trainer’s view after Air Force Blue’s three-and-a-quarter-length victory in 2015, but the line after last year’s race was almost identical. “We’ve never had anything like him,” O’Brien said. “I’ve never had a horse that never gets tired. I’ve never had a horse where we don’t know where the limit is. We usually push them to the limit, but we can never find his limit.”
O’Brien, of course, is not simply paid to train racehorses. His ultimate aim is to turn them into stallions on the Coolmore Stud’s global roster, earning more money in a fortnight from covering mares than they won over the course of their entire racing career. The marketing operation for a horse such as City Of Troy in effect begins as soon as he steps on to a track. There is nothing to be gained by talking him down when his limits and potential are still unknown.
And that is absolutely the case with City Of Troy, whose pedigree – by Justify, the US Triple Crown winner on dirt, out of a Galileo mare – arguably gives him broader horizons than any champion juvenile in living memory.
In addition to City Of Troy, Justify’s second crop of foals also includes Just FYI and Hard To Justify, the winners of the two events for juvenile fillies at last year’s Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, on dirt and turf respectively. There is even talk – because at this stage, why not? – of City Of Troy running on dirt at Saratoga this summer. He could yet turn out to be not just the best horse on the planet, but the best on any surface.
That prospect will be just one among an almost infinite list of possibilities for the season ahead as City Of Troy goes into the stalls at Newmarket on Saturday. The Triple Crown of the Guineas, the Derby and the St Leger, which O’Brien’s Camelot narrowly failed to secure in 2012, is another. And by 3.45pm afternoon, it could all seem utterly delusional. But it is also possible – odds-on, in fact – that the hopes and dreams will remain intact after City Of Troy’s first race as a three-year-old.
There was an effortlessness that bordered on arrogance about his three wins last year, by a combined total of a dozen lengths. There was never a moment, even in the Dewhurst, the championship event for juvenile colts, when he looked anything but a certain and easy winner.
The question on Saturday, as it has been so many times on Guineas morning over the last 200 years, is whether the easy, breezy air of superiority of the two-year-old – an early teen in human terms – has survived a third winter. Frankel’s did. Air Force Blue’s did not, and the Rowley Mile, as ever, will provide the definitive test.
O’Brien colt has Classic at mercy
Favourite backers have endured a difficult run in the 2,000 Guineas over the last 10 years with only Churchill, in 2017, living up to his status as market leader, but City Of Troy (3.35) could well prove to be a class apart from his rivals at Newmarket on Saturday.
The odds-on favourite has less racecourse experience than most of Aidan O’Brien’s 10 previous winners of the race, but a three-race juvenile career was not an issue for Magna Grecia or Saxon Warrior in recent memory and City Of Troy made a deeper impression than either of those colts last season.
His victory in the Dewhurst Stakes in particular hinted at a freakish talent, as City Of Troy broke from the stalls like a sprinter, travelled easily on the lead and then stayed on strongly from two furlongs out to seal an easy three-and-a-half length success.
None of his rivals there, including Alyanaabi, the runner-up, can be given much chance of turning the tables, and Richard Hannon’s Rosallion, the only other runner with a Group One win to his name, will need to have made abnormal progress over the winter to close the 8lb gap to City Of Troy in last year’s official juvenile ratings.
Newmarket 1.45 Apollo One was placed in a series of valuable sprint handicaps last season without winning, and had the worst of the draw when he finished well beaten at York in October. He has been dropped 2lb as a result and went close first time up last season.
Goodwood 2.05 The tough and consistent Breege was tried in Group One company earlier in her career and also has useful track form on heavy ground to her name, so this could be the ideal starting point for what promises to be a rewarding four-year-old campaign.
Newmarket
1.10 Star Guest
1.45 Apollo One (nap)
2.20 Theoryofeverything
2.55 Significantly
3.35 City Of Troy
4.10 Knightswood
4.45 Dapper Valley
5.15 Purefoy
5.50 Bodorgan
Goodwood
1.35 Lessay
2.05 Breege
2.45 Plus Point
3.20 Sumo Sam
3.55 Berkshire Nugget
4.30 Sweet Reward
5.05 Dashing Harry
Thirsk
1.40 Lexington Jet
2.10 Illusionist
2.40 Eilean Dubh (nb)
3.15 Star Of Lady M
3.50 Rockymountainway
4.20 Golden Melody
4.55 Expressionless
Uttoxeter
4.00 Can’t Resist It
4.35 Texard
5.10 Resplendent Grey
5.45 Farceur Du Large
6.18 Higgs
6.53 Aworkinprogress
7.25 Hugueneau
Hexham
4.25 Baron De Midleton
5.00 Empty Nest
5.35 Wavelength
6.10 Choosethenews
6.45 Wilful
7.15 Bold Light
7.50 Goldwyn
8.25 Atomic Angel
Yarmouth
4.40 Em Jay Kay
5.20 Benevento
5.55 Moon Over Miami
6.25 Beau Vintage
7.00 Dorney Lake
7.35 Asteverdi
8.05 Wild Tiger
Newmarket 2.20 William Buick is an eye-catching booking for Theoryofeverything, who was forced to switch at a vital stage before rallying to within a length of the winner last time.
Thirsk 2.40 No end of possibilities in the track’s biggest race of the year, but Eilean Dubh, gelded over the winter, is back below his last winning mark and potentially overpriced at around 20-1 after a decent return to action at Musselburgh last month.
Newmarket 2.55 Significantly struck at the second time of asking last season and though he is priced up at around 16-1, he could definitely be competitive at Group Three level this year.
