The NBA has to be doing cartwheels over this NBA Finals matchup.
Two teams with 23 combined championships — 17 for the Boston Celtics and six for the Golden State Warriors — will be a ratings bonanza. The series will be littered with stars. The team’s contrasting styles will make for great games.
I’m picking the Warriors in seven games.
The reasoning is simple. Since their first title in 2015, no one has beaten a healthy iteration of the dynastic Warriors.
Yes, I know what happened in the 2016 finals. Stephen Curry was dealing with a knee injury, Andre Iguodala — the MVP of the previous finals — was a shell of himself due to a back injury and center Andrew Bogut broke his leg midway through the series.
And there was Draymond Green’s suspension for Game 5, which opened up the floodgates for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving to throw haymakers and change the trajectory of the series before the Warriors lost to the Cavaliers by blowing a 3-1 series lead. And the Warriors nearly pushed the Toronto Raptors to a Game 7 the last time they were in the Finals in 2019, despite losing Kevin Durant to a torn Achilles and Klay Thompson to a torn ACL.
This Warriors team isn’t ailing. It’s played 16 games through three rounds of the Western Conference playoffs, including just five games in the conference finals with the Dallas Mavericks. Signs point to the return of defensive ace Gary Payton II, Iguodala and Otto Porter from injuries.
The Celtics have played 18 games, including back-to-back grueling seven-game series in which they barely survived against the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat. Center Robert Williams, who could be vital against Golden State, has been banged-up and might get run off the floor. Marcus Smart, who will be charged with guarding Curry, missed time these playoffs with multiple leg injuries.
In Sunday’s Game 7 in South Florida, Boston won despite the Heat ending the game on an 11-4 run over the final four minutes. Both sides were clearly gassed, but the Celtics’ offensive deficiencies were on full display. Boston has too hard of a time getting easy shots. They don’t have a natural point guard to initiate the offense and they rely too heavily on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to play hero ball.
That will be tough to replicate against the Warriors, who have become a dynasty in large part because of their success in crunch time in their biggest games. Curry, Thompson and Draymond Green have all been there before. This will be their sixth trip to the finals in the last eight seasons, and they have the added motivation of proving they don’t need Durant to help them win a championship.
This is Golden State’s first trip to the Finals without Durant after going with him three times. Getting this title would put a nice bow on their place in history as one of the best teams ever, and it will solidify Curry among the all-time greats.
Curry is one of eight players to win multiple MVPs and championships. The others: Bill Russell, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan and LeBron James. A fourth title would give Curry more than Bird, adding another interesting subplot to the series.
Overall, though, not bad company to keep for the guy drafted seventh overall in 2009.
This is the first trip to the Finals for this version of the Celtics. Even though Boston might be the best team the Warriors will face in these playoffs, certainly on the defensive end, it’s hard to imagine the Celtics surviving late-game runs like the one that nearly cost them Game 7 against the Heat. The margin for error will shrink against a healthier and more talented team in Golden State.
Admittedly, this might be a homer pick. I’ve been on the Warriors bandwagon since going to my first game in 1993 while growing up in the Bay Area (sorry, Kings fans). It was easy to enjoy the ride with legends like Chris Gatling, Šarūnas Marčiulionis, Tom Gugliotta and Clifford Rozier on the team through all the glory years of my childhood (yes, there’s plenty of humor in the idea all Warriors fans are bandwagon hoppers).
These Finals won’t be easy for Golden State. Far from it. That’s why this series will go the full seven games. It would hardly be a surprise to see the Celtics go ahead early in the series after slowing the Warriors offense, or at least benefiting from a classic turnover-heavy game paired with the Splash Brothers going ice cold from 3-point range. The Warriors are prone to bad offensive performances from time to time, and often their defense suffers because of it.
But this pick is about the power of the Warriors and their experience. Boston doesn’t have anyone on the roster that poses the same threat of James, whom the Golden State is 3-1 against in the playoffs, and the Warriors as a collective have more motivation knowing these chances might not come around much longer, with all their core stars in their 30s.
The Celtics, meanwhile, could be around for a long time with Tatum and Brown at 23 and 25, respectively. This will be a chance for them to learn and build off of.
There’s no substitute for championship experience and the Warriors have plenty.
