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Valued at $82.5 billion by market cap, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is a significant player in the fast-casual dining industry. Headquartered in Newport Beach, California, the company specializes in fresh, customizable Mexican-inspired cuisine, focusing on responsibly sourced ingredients and exceptional customer experiences.
Companies worth $10 billion or more are generally considered "large-cap" stocks, and Chipotle Mexican Grill comfortably falls within this category. This fast-casual dining leader embodies growth and innovation in the restaurant industry. Starting from a single location in Denver, Chipotle has built a global reputation, redefining fast food with its focus on fresh, high-quality ingredients and a commitment to sustainability, setting new standards in the dining experience worldwide.
Chipotle Mexican Grill is down 12.6% from its 52-week high of $69.26, achieved on Jun. 18. CMG has gained 8% over the three months, underperforming the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLY) 19.8% gains during the same time frame.
Over the long term, CMG has gained 32.4% on a YTD basis, and the shares are up 35.5% over the past 52 weeks. By contrast, XLY has gained 25.4% in 2024 and 31.1% over the past year.
However, CMG has been trading above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages since early November, indicating a bullish price trend.
Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill dropped over 7% following the release of its Q3 earnings on Oct. 29. The company reported revenue of $2.79 billion, up 13% year-over-year and matching Wall Street’s expectations. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.27, beating consensus estimates by 6.6%, while EBITDA of $643.5 million exceeded forecasts by 21.3%.
Key metrics showed stable performance, with gross and operating margins consistent at 39.3% and 16.9%, respectively, and EBITDA margin improving to 23% from 19.2% a year ago. The company reaffirmed its guidance for mid- to high-single-digit same-store sales growth for the full year.
Its rival, Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) has gained 9.2% over the past 52 weeks and 6.4% on a YTD basis, trailing CMG's performance over both time frames.
Despite CMG’s recent underperformance compared to the broader sector, analysts remain moderately optimistic about its prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 31 analysts in coverage, and the mean price target of $66.35 suggests a premium of 9.6% to its current levels.
